1. Convention 2020 – Launch of Pathfinder Report

2. Special Offer on InnoTown Innovation Conference 2010

3. Grand Global Challenges

4. Rohit on the Road

5. About Fast Future

6. Forthcoming Dates for your Diary

7. Republishing FutureScape Content

Welcome to the latest issue of FutureScape. I hope you enjoy it.

If you would like to subscribe to our newsletter, please sign up here.

Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766

rohit@fastfuture.com

1. Convention 2020 – Update

On May 25th we launched a ‘Pathfinder Report’ and press release providing a short trailer for the next major project report to be issued in July 2010. The report examines external and internal industry factors shaping the agenda for the sector over the next ten years and highlights some of the resulting strategic challenges and choices for business leaders in the industry. You can download the ‘Pathfinder’ report and its associated press release as well as the March 2010 survey results – additionally, you can also sign up to receive the Convention 2020 newsletter and future project report announcements.

If you would like to host a CEO and decision maker workshop to explore the implications of the emerging findings of the study, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com.

2. Special Offer – 35% FutureScape Reader Discount for ‘Blown Away’ – InnoTown Innovation Conference 2010 – Alesund Norway June 9th-10th 2010

As a keynote speaker for this years’ InnoTown conference, the organisers have very kindly agreed to give our readers an exclusive discount of over 35% on the price of attending. With over 400 attendees from around the world, the event is one of the leading global business innovation conferences. It is targeted at leaders and innovators who want to “open up to the new opportunities that lie beyond the traditionally tried and tested. The aim is to move people’s minds, both rationally and emotionally; to inspire and enhance creativity and innovation, to help motivate people to think new thoughts and dare to fail – to succeed. The conference emphasises innovation, vision, inspiration, strategy, creativity, promotion and internationalisation.”

Places are available to our readers at an exclusive rate of NOK 8407 (NOK 6,725 + 25% VAT) (Approximately US$1,300; 1062 Euros). To book please contact Cecilie With cecilie@innotown.com Phone + 47 70 13 95 00.

Please forward the details on to anyone who might be interested.

3. Grand Global Challenges

Despite the immediate issues we face as a planet, current challenges are often the result of our past choices, so we think it’s time to start thinking about what some might call ‘the far future’. Over the last year we’ve been fortunate to have been asked to undertake a number of studies, consultancy projects and speeches that go well beyond the 5-10 year timeframe to look further into the future at 20-50 year time horizons. These studies have covered topics as diverse as:

• The next 50 years and how to prepare for them
• The 20 year science and technology timeline and jobs of the future
• The future of narcotics
• The future of migration
• The future of the family
• The future of aviation and travel.

This research has inspired us to think about what questions and challenges we’d like to table for the next G20 gathering in Seoul later this year. We know they’ll be pre-occupied with some pressing immediate issues around the global economic recovery, the risk of sovereign debt contagion and regulation of the global financial system. So on their behalf, we have been thinking about what longer term challenges we’d most like them to give some thought to. Listed below is a ‘starter for 10’ – we’ll add to the list of ideas in future issues.

What we’d most like to hear are your thoughts on Global Grand Challenges – what should we be taking seriously right now? We’ll compile the thoughts received and generated by us into a survey which we’ll use to generate a prioritised list that we’ll share with all our readers – who knows someone who works for a G20 leader might just be a reader and pass them on! So here are our first 10 challenges framed as questions for discussion:

1. Political governance – What are the appropriate range of governance models to ensure transparency, representation and citizen engagement in the digital age.

2. Management of the global economy – Learning the lessons from Greece, do countries need to be audited in the same way as companies? Can we see a single global currency within the next 20-50 years – if so what would the convergence road map look like? What models of economic management are appropriate for the turbulent era we now face – is growth a given?

3. Financial system risk and innovation – What is an acceptable level of risk in the global financial industry in return for the innovation and growth that the sector seeks to deliver?

4. Regulating science and technology – Given the pace of development in and our growing dependence on science and technology – how do we ensure consistency of global decision making around regulation and help the non-expert citizen understand the ethics, risks and opportunities of each new set of developments that could touch our lives?

5. Efficient energy experimentation – Can we find efficient collaborative international approaches to experimenting with new energy sources that take us beyond debate to finding effective ways of testing options on a large (e.g. city-wide) scale?

6. Tolerance of hardship – We know challenges such as poverty, malnutrition and poor infrastructure exist today in both the developed and developing world alike. We know they are impacted by our decisions on a daily basis and eradication seems an unlikely scenario in the next 20-30 years. So what’s an ‘acceptable level of hardship in our societies’ – what are we willing to live with?

7. Language education – What languages should our children be learning – should developed and developing nations make Mandarin, Hindi and English compulsory for all school children?

8. Environment 3.0 – Can we develop a smarter, less debate-heavy, multi-speed, multi-tiered approach to managing global resources and tackling climate change that enable developing economies move at a faster pace – albeit slower than their more developed neighbours?

9. An ageing society – How can we fund and house an ageing global population – what are the implications for structures in the family, society and the workplace.

10. Conflict management – Can we develop ‘out of the box’ solutions for resolving conflicts in the 21st century that avoid the loss of life, social strife and economic disruption that result from current approaches? For example, could wars and disputes be fought out in computer simulations refereed by the UN?

We will expand this list in future issues, but as mentioned above – we’d really like to hear your descriptions of grand global challenges you’d like to see our leaders addressing. We look forward to seeing your thoughts. Please contact us with your suggestions.

4. Rohit on the Road

In the coming weeks, Rohit will be delivering keynote speeches on new approaches to strategy, ‘seeing round corners’, the next 50 years, the future of construction, Convention 2020, foresight driven innovation, financing future infrastructure, new business models, the future of events, winning in a downturn, the future of the global economy, drivers of change, outlook 2020 and a number of industry focused themes.

He is currently scheduled to be in London, Glasgow, Porto, Budapest, Barcelona, Delhi, Niagara Falls, St. Louis, Orlando, Las Vegas, Melbourne, Hyderabad, Seoul, Oslo, Stavanger and Alesund (Norway).

If you would like to meet with him or organise a speech for your organisation while he is in your city, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

5. About Fast Future

Fast Future is a research and consulting firm which focuses on helping clients anticipate and develop innovative responses to the forces, patterns of change and ideas shaping the future. To discuss your needs for research, consulting, a speech or workshop, contact rohit@fastfuture.com or call +44 (0)20 8830 0766

6. Forthcoming Dates for your Diary

• June 6th-9th – The Dynamics of Innovation – XXI ISPIM Conference Bilbao www.ispim.org
• June 7th – Convention 2020 Workshop Oslo www.mpinorway.org
• June 7th-9th – Aquavision Aquaculture Conference 2010, Stavanger, Norway www.aquavision.org
• June 9th-10th – InnoTown Innovation Conference 2010, Alesund, Norway http://www.innotown.com
• June 15th – Convention 2020 – CEO Morning Briefing – QEII Convention Centre London for details email convention2020@fastfuture.com
• June 23rd – Transfin 2010 – Global Transport and Infrastructure Financing, Barcelona www.icbi-events.com/transfin

7. Republishing FutureScape Content

A number of people have asked to re-publish our content in their magazines, blogs, websites and newsletters. We are happy for you to do this – if you want to republish any articles, please acknowledge the source, provide a link back to our website and let us know you’ve done it.

FutureScape Issue 12 – May 10th 2010 – Global Faultlines

In this Issue:

1.    Convention 2020 Update
2.    The Need for New Economic Thinking
3.    Airlines – No Way Up?
4.    Innovation at the Margins
5.    Rohit on the Road
6.    About Fast Future
7.    Forthcoming Dates for your Diary
8.    Republishing FutureScape Content

FutureScape Issue 12 – May 10th 2010 – Global Faultlines

Welcome to the latest issue of FutureScape in which we focus emerging fault lines in the global economy and widening the innovation aperture. I hope you enjoy it. If this is not your copy and would like to subscribe, please sign up here.

You can download all our previous newsletters here.

Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future

Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766

rohit@fastfuture.com

1.    Convention 2020 – Update

Hopefully you will now have had a chance to read and reflect on the findings of our initial project survey published on March 5th. You can download the report (PDF file) and we’d welcome your feedback. We’re currently preparing for the release of the main Phase 1 report for the Convention 2020 project – focussing on key drivers of change in the meetings & events industry over the next decade. The report draws on a range of research activities in order to explore the following:

•    Critical strategic changes over the last decade
•    Current issues facing the industry
•    Key ‘driving forces’ and trends likely to affect the sector in the next decade
•    A timeline of critical science and technology developments that could be of relevance
•    Strategic challenges for the industry to address.

The report will be released at the IMEX 10 Exhibition in Frankfurt, where we will be running five presentations and workshop sessions to share and discuss the findings. Full details of these sessions can be found at www.convention2020.meetingsreview.com/IMEX10Sessions

We’d like to mention a key event – the Launch of the Convention 2020 Phase 1 Report. This will take place on Tuesday 25th May in Room ‘Seminar’, Level 9.2, Hall 9 from 16:00 – 17:00hrs and will be open to all IMEX participants.

The report will also be available for download from the project website from 10.00 am (CET) on Tuesday 25th May. Please go to www.convention-2020.com/phase1report for details.

To receive updates from the project please sign up for the newsletter here – convention2020.meetingsreview.com/Newsletter

Between June and September 2010 we will be running a series of Convention 2020 workshops to explore the implications of the phase 1 findings for different sectors of the industry. If you’d like to host or take part in one of those sessions please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

Further information on IMEX 10 can be found at: www.imex-frankfurt.com/

2.    The Need for New Economic Thinking
The debt crisis in Greece, rising concerns about national debt in Portugal, Spain and the UK and the risk of global debt contagion have raised serious questions about the economic management models required to achieve a stable and sustainable global economic recovery. The idea that nations could simply borrow or print money to finance their ambitions or bail out their economies is running out of steam. The reality is that individuals, businesses and nations alike are struggling to pay the interest on their leveraged lifestyles let alone pay back the capital. How many more orchestrated bailouts can the IMF and European Union finance? At what point do we have to question the underlying economic model and start looking for new paradigms?

The issue is not a simple choice about free market versus centrally managed economies. There are more fundamental issues of how we can ensure long term economic development, sustainable job creation, and a viable business sector which doesn’t require very risky levels of leveraged debt. Most of the moves being adopted either to deal with national debt crises or financial sector reform appear to be doing little to ensure long-term stability and largely accept the current underlying economic paradigm – even though it is creaking at the seams.

So what might the solution look like? We are interested in hearing about new models and paradigms that are being proposed – whether by individuals, academics, economists, governments, NGOs, think tanks or businesses. Over the next few issues we’d like to air a range of alternative models for a stable economic and financial system. Please share your views with us.

3.    Airlines – No Way Up?
A ‘wildcard’ is generally defined as any event that has low probability but high impact; the world experienced one such wildcard in the last month courtesy of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano.  The event opened up a debate on how we prepare for and deal with such events and how much risk are we willing to live with. Indeed, the topic opened most of the interviews we’ve been conducting over the last couple of weeks with experts from the meetings & events industry as part of our ongoing Convention 2020 project.

Beyond immediate considerations of the success (or otherwise) of any disaster recovery or crisis management planning, it was clear that a number of people had – prompted by the event – begun to consider the wider ramifications. We did an interview for Al Jazeera TV to explore the potential long term implications if the ash cloud did last 2 years as some had been warning. A particular focus has been on the potential effects of any longer term disruption on the ability to fly people and goods around the world and what that might mean for the aviation sector and those dependent upon it.

In particular, the curtailment of air travel has put the focus onto the future of civil aviation. While it remains a crucial part of the transportation infrastructure around the world, the affects of a wildcard such as the ash cloud have bought the challenges it currently faces into starker contrast. The airline industry globally has debts of over US$200Bn, has only made a profit once in the last ten years and the losses continue to mount. Recent announcements have highlighted first quarter losses for AMR Corp (the parent company of American Airlines) of US$505m, US$256m at Delta Airlines and US$140m for Continental. Under such circumstances, the prospect of a two year stoppage of commercial aviation to Europe has led to some fascinating debate on the future of the aviation sector.

Increasingly, people are willing to ask the unthinkable question – does the airline industry have a viable future? While airline executives might baulk at the idea of discussing the topic, the industry does face very tough challenges as it strives to define a long-term future. Alongside issues of financial viability, there are growing concerns about how the industry can return to profitability while addressing over-capacity, environmental impacts, rising fuel costs, the possibility of emissions-trading regimes & carbon taxes, security requirements and changes in social attitudes.

What level of price hike would be required to return airlines to sustainable profitability – and would customers be willing to bear such increases? What new thinking is emerging about sustainable aviation business models? Would airlines have to be taken into national ownership and subsidised by governments as a critical part of national infrastructure? What impact would a dramatic reduction in the number of airlines and flights have on our lives – can we imagine a life without flying? Which industries would be most disrupted?

The airline industry is just one of the sectors being confronted by fundamental questions about its long term viability – many others will follow in the next few years.

4.    Innovation at the Margins
One of the most interesting issues in the field of innovation is the pace of product development and adaptation in sectors that sit outside the law or on the margins of it. Perhaps the most visible examples today are the fields of illegal drugs and ‘legal highs’.  We recently conducted a scenario development workshop which sought to investigate the range of factors that could shape the drugs (stimulants) landscape out to 2030. One of the key trends identified was the rapidly increasing availability and adoption of ‘legal highs’. In fact, during our workshop the issue of whether the UK government would introduce a ban on the sale of one such substance – Mephedrone – was widely discussed (it did, in mid-April).

One of the features of the legal high market is the pace with which new or amended products are brought to market within weeks to replace substances that are banned. For example, The Guardian has since reported that a new synthetic drug called MDAI is already available and being advertised as a replacement. (1)

From a policy perspective, the concern would be that the current enforcement model means we are always behind the product developers. No sooner do we ban one compound than the manufacturers come to market with an almost identical formula with just a few modifications that render it legal. Hence the question arises, how can we become more innovative in defining drugs policy and change the power relationship between policy makers and drug manufacturers. For example should we be banning the effect rather than the compound? Would this also have the added benefit of dealing with new non-chemical stimulants (e.g. sound, electromagnetic stimulation) that could come to market in the years to come?

For those in other legitimate fields from pharmaceuticals to food processing – is there anything we can learn from how these legal high manufacturers operate? Clearly such organisations are not subjecting their products to the same trialling regime as a legal pharmaceutical and we are not suggesting abandoning the drugs testing regime. However, we do wonder if there is something that can be learned from the approaches to innovation, product development and market testing that are adopted by the legal high manufacturers.

(1) - http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/apr/18/drug-replace-ban-mephedrone

5.    Rohit on the Road
In the coming weeks, Rohit will be delivering keynote speeches on healthcare scenarios, Convention 2020, the future of research, foresight driven innovation, financing future infrastructure, new business models, the future of events, winning in a downturn, the future of the global economy, drivers of change, outlook 2020 and a number of industry focused themes. He is currently scheduled to be in London, Frankfurt, Barcelona, Budapest, Niagara Falls, St. Louis, Hyderabad, Oslo, Stavanger and Alesund (Norway). If you would like to meet with him or organise a speech for your organisation while he is in your city, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

6.    About Fast Future
Fast Future is a research and consulting firm which focuses on helping clients anticipate and develop innovative responses to the forces, patterns of change and ideas shaping the future. To discuss your needs for research, consulting, a speech or workshop, contact rohit@fastfuture.com or call +44 (0)20 8830 0766

7.    Forthcoming Dates for your Diary

May 25th – 27th – IMEX Frankfurt (www.imex-frankfurt.com)
June 6-9 – The Dynamics of Innovation – XXI ISPIM Conference Bilbao (www.ispim.org)
June 7th – Convention 2020 Workshop Oslo (www.mpinorway.org)
June 7th – 9th – Aquavision Aquaculture Conference 2010, Stavanger, Norway (www.aquavision.org)
June 9th -10th – InnoTown Innovation Conference 2010, Alesund, Norway (http://www.innotown.com)
June 23rd – Transfin 2010 – Global Transport and Infrastructure Financing, Barcelona (www.icbi-events.com/transfin)

8.    Republishing FutureScape Content
A number of people have asked to re-publish our content in their magazines, blogs, websites and newsletters. We are happy for you to do this – if you want to republish any articles, please acknowledge the source, provide a link back to our website and let us know you’ve done it.

Image attribution: flickr / mummigud

The latest edition of the FutureScape newsletter is now available.

FutureScape Issue #11 – February 22nd 2010 – Drugs and Human Enhancement

In this Issue:

1. Convention 2020 Research Seminars March 5th London – March 8th Fort Lauderdale
2. Convention 2020 Update
3. New Survey – The Drugs Landscape 2030
4. New Survey – Law Firm 2020
5. 2012 – The Last ‘Natural Olympics’?
6. Regulating Enhancement
7. Rohit on the Road
8. About Fast Future
9. Forthcoming Dates for your Diary
10. Republishing FutureScape Content

Welcome to the latest issue of FutureScape. I hope you enjoy it. If this is not your copy and would like to subscribe, please sign up here

You can download all our previous newsletters here.

Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766

rohit@fastfuture.com

1 -Convention 2020 Research Seminars March 5th London – March 8th Fort Lauderdale

We will be running two seminars to launch the results from a project survey on the future shape of the sector, highlight emerging findings from the wider research programme and facilitate a group discussion on the implications for the industry. Key topics to be covered will include:

• What are the emerging drivers of change for the sector?
• What will delegates expect from the meeting experience?
• How might advances in technology impact the meeting experience?
• What event business models could become more important?
• What are the implications and opportunities for Venues?

The seminars will be held at:

• 5th March. 9am – 11.30am Queen Elizabeth II Centre, London, England (Make a direct booking)
• 8th March 2.15pm – 5pm Hyatt Regency Pier Sixty-Six Resort & Spa, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA. (Please contact us directly for more information)

2 – Convention 2020 Update

The first phase of project research on the drivers of change for the industry is progressing well. A project TrendWiki has been launched for you to share your thoughts on key issues and trends shaping the conventions, meetings and events sector over the next decade. Please go to www.convention-2020.com to see a ‘dashboard’ of the kinds of issues being raised and to add your own views. We will be providing a fuller update to subscribers of the Convention 2020 project newsletter for which registration is open.

We are adding new sponsors and expert contributors all the time. The founding sponsors are The International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA), IMEX and Fast Future Research. The current platinum sponsors are Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre, Qatar National Convention Centre, The Queen Elizabeth II (QEII) Conference Centre London, Visit London, Seoul Tourism Organization, Athens Convention Bureau and BestCities Global Alliance (Cape Town, Copenhagen, Dubai, Edinburgh, Melbourne, San Juan, Singapore and Vancouver). Kenes are the first gold sponsor.

If you want to know more about becoming a sponsor, expert contributor or association thought partner please contact Rohit@fastfuture.com.

3 – New Survey – The Drugs Landscape 2030

We are putting together a short paper on the broad spectrum of factors that could shape the drugs landscape by 2030. We are looking at a range of factors that could shape the landscape of illegal and legal stimulants ranging from new chemical and natural products through to electronic stimulants, performance enhancers and possible new sources of addiction that could range from computer gaming to ‘legal highs’.

We are interested in hearing your thoughts on factors that could shape the drugs landscape by 2030 – from production and distribution through to prevention and treatment. Please take a few minutes to answer the six questions here.

We will send a copy of the paper to everyone who responds and leaves their name and email address. The survey closes on March 2nd 2010.

4 – New Survey – Law Firm 2020

Fast Future Research and Trafalgar – The People Business are conducting a study into the future of professional law firms around the world. The study is aimed both at users and providers of legal services. There are seven open ended questions for everyone to consider. Please take a few minutes to complete the survey here.

Everyone who leaves their email address will receive a summary of the findings. The survey closes on March 12th 2010.

5 – 2012 – The Last ‘Natural Olympics’?

In researching advances in science and technology and the drugs landscape, one of the issues we’ve been considering is how these various forms of enhancement could impact sport and the Olympics. There is a rapid rate of advance in areas such as artificial limbs, bionics and chemical performance enhancement. Whilst some of the work is being done by ‘illegal’ laboratories, much of the R&D is being undertaken by legitimate agencies – often backed by government funding.

The sheer rate of advance raises the question of whether London 2012 will be the last ‘Natural Olympics’ where the bulk of athletes are free from any form of enhancement. By the time we reach Rio de Janeiro in 2016, we could face a situation where the sheer scale of enhancement opportunities on offer to athletes overwhelms the current sporting regulatory regimes and their capacity to monitor and control the situation. The Olympic authorities could then be faced with tough choices. Would they allow athletes to compete whatever enhancement they have undergone? Would they create a two tier games where athletes self-certified as to whether or not they were performing with any enhancements? What would the implications be for young athletes in training – at what age would they start to experience the pressure to seek enhancements?

6 – Regulating Enhancement

One of the most interesting areas of research in the drugs field is around the use of ‘nootropic’ drugs to enhance cognitive performance. In the US in particular there is now growing concern over the use by students of ADHD medications like Ritalin and Adderall to enhance student performance when studying and taking exams. This led us to question how business would approach such issues. Could we see corporations tacitly or overtly encouraging or pressurising employees to take such enhancements – particularly as the range of legal over the counter options increased? Could employees find themselves passed over for promotion and salary increases in favour or workmates who were using such enhancers to extend their working hours and increase their output? Would health and safety regulators step in to try and prevent or control the use of such stimulants?

7 – Rohit on the Road

In the coming weeks, Rohit will be delivering keynote speeches on foresight driven innovation, the future of aviation, the future of events, winning in a downturn, the future of the global economy, drivers of change, outlook 2020 and a number of industry focused themes. He is currently scheduled to be in London, Fort Lauderdale, Coventry, Daventry, Exeter, Chepstow, Manchester, Brussels, Qatar, Melbourne, Frankfurt, Prague, Barcelona, and Oslo, Stavanger and Alesund (Norway). If you would like to meet with him or organise a speech for your organisation while he is in your city, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

8 – About Fast Future

Fast Future is a research and consulting firm which focuses on helping clients anticipate and develop innovative responses to the forces, patterns of change and ideas shaping the future. To discuss your needs for research, consulting, a speech or workshop, contact rohit@fastfuture.com or call +44 (0)20 8830 0766

9 – Forthcoming Dates for your Diary

• May 5th-7th What can the Future do for You? Lift Conference Geneva, http://www.liftconference.com/lift10
• June 9th-10th InnoTown Innovation Conference 2010, Alesund, Norway www.innotown.com

10 – Republishing FutureScape Content

A number of people have asked to re-publish our content in their magazines, blogs, websites and newsletters. We are happy for you to do this – if you want to republish any articles, please acknowledge the source, provide a link back to our website and let us know you’ve done it.

(Main image credit – flickr / lostfate 13’s photostream)

In This Issue:
1.Convention 2020 Update
2.Routes to Flexibility
3.Anatomy of a Crisis – Anticipating Responses to Shocks
4.Future of Aviation – Free Open Seminar in London – Tuesday February 9th 2010
5.Rohit on the Road
6.About Fast Future
7.Forthcoming Dates for your Diary
8.Republishing FutureScape Content

Welcome to the latest issue of FutureScape for 2010. I hope you enjoy it.

Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766
rohit@fastfuture.com

1.    Convention 2020 – Contribute to Our Trend Wiki
Convention 2020 is a strategic foresight study looking at the future of conventions, meetings and trade shows. We have launched a dedicated TrendWiki for the project – which is kindly hosted by Data Rangers. Using the Wiki you can enter your own thoughts on future trends and challenges.  To share your thoughts go to our newly launched project website at www.convention-2020.com – where you can also sign up for the dedicated project newsletter and social media forums.

We are adding new sponsors and expert contributors all the time. The founding sponsors are The International Congress and Convention Association, IMEX and Fast Future Research. The current platinum sponsors are Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre, Qatar National Convention Centre, The Queen Elizabeth II (QEII) Conference Centre London, Visit London, Seoul Tourism Organization and BestCities Global Alliance (Cape Town, Copenhagen, Dubai, Edinburgh, Melbourne, San Juan, Singapore and Vancouver). Kenes are the first gold sponsor. If you want to know more about becoming a sponsor, expert contributor or association thought partner please contact Rohit@fastfuture.com.

2.    Routes to Flexibility
I’ve just returned from a client event in Asia where the focus was on driving flexibility and adaptability to respond to a range of possible future shocks, opportunities and ‘inevitable surprises’. Firstly it was nice to see how wholeheartedly they were embracing the need for foresight. I was also struck by one of the strategies they unveiled to help drive flexibility.

Like many large organisations, the client wants to free up the time of front line staff in their business units around the world. The aim is to free them of routine processes and back office administration and allow them to focus on the marketplace and on responding to fast changing customer needs. The solution they have chosen is to consolidate all back office operations under a single centralised ‘global operations model’ in a multi-million pound, multi-year change process.

On the one hand, the idea of standardised processes, systems, reporting and procedures has great attractions. Equally, the idea of freeing up time to focus on customers is incredibly sensible. However I’m left with a few nagging concerns. The first is that one of the main reasons for the back offices in diverse locations to get complex and out of synch is that the front office tends to want things done to suit their local needs – not the needs of a global model (look at the nightmare challenges and budget creep the UK Health Service has faced trying to standardise IT systems in hospitals, surgeries and other healthcare centres across the country).

The front office will have valid reasons for wanting ensure they and their customers get the desired level of service. They will also find it hard to let go of ‘their back office’ and so will seek to get very involved in the design and decision making around the global model. This will add time, cost, complexity and frustration to the design process. It will also divert attention from front line service delivery. However, if they don’t get involved, the fear will be that they have imposed on them a central solution that doesn’t work well for any end market.

Another concern would be that such solutions take a long time to develop and implement – 3 years or more in this case. In that time the world, our customers, our staff and technology will have moved on – possibly a long way. A solution designed around today’s needs may be out of date long before it’s delivered. In a fast changing environment the key lies in being close to your customers and highly responsive. This in turn implies having redundant capacity in the system to be able to address new requirements quickly and often means keeping key processes close to the end market.

A big risk is that the central system doesn’t quite fit the needs of the end-markets and the desired changes can’t be accommodated. Workarounds will start to emerge as localised systems and processes are developed to suit the needs of end-markets under pressure to deliver on tough objectives in an uncertain economic environment. Another concern is that in the current climate, the project may itself be postponed or cancelled completely if we do experience a double-dip downturn and the firm decides to focus it’s efforts and resources on the marketplace rather than internal matters. Indeed we’ve sen a number of system upgrades, laptop replacement initiatives and other similar projects cancelled in order to keep staff focused on the marketplace and minimise additional distractions.

Many large organisations are or will soon be going through this trade off debate between centralised, standardized and efficient solutions versus a more distributed possibly less efficient but hopefully more responsive model. Inevitably considerations such as outsourcing, use of ‘cloud based Software as a Service’ models, security, flexibility and cost will loom large in the reckoning. There is no easy answer. The key consideration in a fast changing marketplace is to examine how best to deliver the desired service to customers in a responsive and secure manner and not to be swayed by solutions that look good on paper but don’t take account of real world behaviours.

3.    Anatomy of a Crisis – Anticipating Future Shocks
One of our readers Darryl Howard recently responded to our article on four possible scenarios for the global economy. He told us about a fascinating book from 1997 called The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe (www.fourthturning.com) that describes how a crisis typically unfolds. This is fascinating stuff in relation to the current economic situation and I thought I’d share Darryl’s email and his synopsis of the book.  I’d welcome your thoughts on the article.

“I work on contract to Grizzly Adams Productions movie production company. www.grizzlyadams.com With over 600 films and TV shows in their library they have one of the largest libraries outside the major studios like Disney and Sony etc. I work with the CEO to help predict emotions. We studied where they lay out 6 former crisis periods (every 80-100 years) and applied it to film. Because films take several years to produce, we have used this work to predict the emotions of the audience in the future. It has been successful for us. With your work I sure see the emerging markets differently. Thank you very much.  Their work is from a different perspective. As an FYI, if you have not seen how The Fourth Turning lays out how they see the overall crisis period unfolding till about 2025. Below is the Anatomy of a Crisis from the book The Fourth Turning.

FYI-from an additional perspective, the U.S. seems to be in the position of the UK during pre-WWII and Obama playing the role of Neville Chamberlin. Along that line, if you read The Memoirs of Herbert Hoover, the problems came in ten waves. Five while Hoover was in office and 5 while Roosevelt was in office. (If you want more info on this the link is here.  If you see us paralleling The Great Depression it may be worth the read.)”

Darryl Howard darrylhoward@comcast.net

Anatomy of a Crisis – Summarised by Darryl Howard
(Taken from the book, The Fourth Turning, By William Strauss and Neil Howe)

A Fourth Turning (crisis period) has 4 parts – Catalyst, Regeneracy, Climax and Resolution. From this perspective – we are clearly in the Regeneracy Phase of the Fourth Turning.

Catalyst – Event or series of events that start to change the mood of the Nation.
Regeneracy – An action plan that unifies and energizes civic life.
Climax – An event that confirms the death of the old and acceptance of the new way.
Resolution – Determines the winners and loser, solidifies the new system.

During Every Fourth Turning there is a…Catalyst

• An event that terminates the mood of the Unraveling and unleashes one of Crisis.
• Triggered by a spark, or series of sparks.  Some burn briefly, some leave problems unresolved.
• How we react to them is different
• Triggers a fierce new dynamic public synergy.
• Society feels poorly protected…because they were foreseeable.
• A new sense of urgency about institutional dysfunction and civic vulnerability.

During Every Fourth Turning there is a…Regeneracy

• A drawing together into whatever definition of community is available at the time.
• People stop tolerating the weakening of institutions, the splintering of the culture, and the individualizing of daily behavior.
• Spiritual curiosity abates, manners traditionalize, and the culture is harnessed as propaganda for the purpose of overtly reinforcing good conduct.
• One to three years after the initial catalyst, people begin deputizing government to enforce it.
• Collective action is seen as vital to solving society’s most fundamental problems.
• With the civic ethos now capable of producing civic deeds, a new dynamic of threat and response takes hold.
• Instead of downplaying problems, leaders start exaggerating them.
• Instead of deferring solutions, they accelerate them. Instead of tolerating diversity, they demand consensus.
• Instead of coaxing people with promises of minimal sacrifice, they summon them with warnings of maximal sacrifice.
• Leaders energize every available institution and direct them toward community survival.
• Society propels itself on a trajectory that nobody had foreseen.
• Societal problems that, in the Unravelling, posed insuperable dilemmas now appear to have simple if demanding solutions.
• A new resolve about urgent public goals crowds out qualms about questionable public means.
• Crisis eras are studded with faulty leadership and inept management. Surprisingly, the public often follows even when mistakes are made.
• Individuals are expected to comply with new standards of virtue.
• Family order strengthens, and personal violence and substance abuse decline.
• Those who persist in free-wheeling self-orientated behavior now face implacable public stigma, even punishment.
• Winner-take-all arrangements give way to new mechanisms of social sharing.
• Questions about who does what are settled on grounds of survival, not fairness.
• A renewed social division of labor by age / sex.
• Elders are expected to step aside for the young, women for men.  When danger looms, children are expected to be protected before parents, mothers before fathers.
• All Social arrangements are evaluated anew; pre-Crisis promises and expectations count for little.
• In the crisis, the pace of daily life will seem to slow down just as political and social change accelerates. (this vs. a past time of fast-paced personal lives against a background of public gridlock)

During Every Fourth Turning there is a…Climax

• Approaching the climax, society reaches a point of maximum civic power…and it justifies public fury. Wars become more likely and are fought with efficacy and finality.
• The risk of revolution is high—as is the risk of civil war, since the community that commands the greatest loyalty does not necessarily coincide with political (or geographic) boundaries.
• Leaders become more inclined to define enemies in moral terms, to enforce virtue militarily, to refuse all compromise…commit large forces…impose heavy sacrifices (at home and abroad) and deploy weapons for victory.
• It is the equivalent to nature’s raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl of ferocious energy.
• Anything not lashed down goes flying.
• Anything standing in the way gets flattened.
• It accumulates energy of unmet needs, unpaid bills and unresolved problems.
• It then spends that energy on an upheaval whose direction and dimension were beyond comprehension during the prior Unraveling.
• It shakes society to its roots, transforms institutions, redirects its purposes, and marks its people for life.

During Every Fourth Turning there is a…Resolution

• In triumph or tragedy, or some combination of both, it ends.
• Society passes through a gateway of history, fundamentally altering the course of civilization.
• Victors are rewarded…Nations are forged or destroyed, treaties signed, boundaries redrawn.
• And we start the 80 to 100 year cycle with a new First Turning…A High.

4.    Future of Aviation – Free Open Seminar in London – Tuesday February 9th 2010
Rohit will be giving his first open seminar of the year in London on February 9th. There is no charge for this event. The seminar is being hosted by Berwin Leighton Paisner. Although the focus is on aviation, the topics could be of interest to a broader audience. Do please forward the details to any contacts in the London area who may want to attend. The topics to be covered will include:

• Flying into the Unknown – Surviving and Thriving in a Decade of Turbulence
• Dancing in the dark – key global transformations, trends and drivers shaping the future global context for aviation
• The new normal – the outlook for travel in the next decade
• Inevitable surprises – emerging technologies and their transformational impact on consumer behaviour, travel and aviation
• Hope is not a strategy – critical challenges for airports and airlines
• Free or Fantastic – rethinking aviation business models and revenue streams
• Permission to think – opening up the aviation innovation process
• Won’t get fooled again – developing a foresight culture.

Registration and breakfast 8.00, seminar 8.30am to 10.00am
Location: St Magnus House, 3 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6HE

To book a place please email your name, title, organisation and telephone number to Laura Duffin – laura.duffin@blplaw.com

5.    Rohit on the Road
In the coming weeks, Rohit will be delivering keynote speeches on foresight driven innovation, the future of aviation, the future of events, winning in a downturn, the future of the global economy, drivers of change, outlook 2020 and a number of industry focused themes. He is currently scheduled to be in London, Florida, Coventry, Daventry, Exeter, Chepstow, Seoul, Singapore, Brussels, Qatar, Melbourne, Frankfurt, Prague, Barcelona, and Oslo, Stavanger and Alaesund (Norway). If you would like to meet with him or organise a speech for your organisation while he is in your city, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

6.    About Fast Future
Fast Future is a research and consulting firm which focuses on helping clients anticipate and develop innovative responses to the forces, patterns of change and ideas shaping the future. To discuss your needs for research, consulting, a speech or workshop, contact rohit@fastfuture.com or call +44 (0)20 8830 0766

7.    Forthcoming Dates for your Diary
Feb 9th – Flying into the Unknown – Surviving and Thriving in a Decade of Turbulence Breakfast Seminar 8.30am -10am Berwin Leighton Paisner London – email Laura Duffin – laura.duffin@blplaw.com

May 5th-7th What can the Future do for You? Lift Conference Geneva, http://www.liftconference.com/lift10

June 9th-10th InnoTown Innovation Conference 2010, Aalesund, Norway www.innotown.com

8.    Republishing FutureQuest Content
A number of people have asked to re-publish our content in their magazines, blogs, websites and newsletters. We are happy for you to do this – if you want to republish any articles, please acknowledge the source, provide a link back to our website and let us know you’ve done it.

The wide ranging discussion covered a range of topics from global patterns of change, to the key future challenges facing the US, Europe and Asia through to scenarios for global migration patterns in 2030.

Background information | Listen to the interview (mp3)

The shape of jobs to come: Possible New Careers Emerging from Advances in Science and Technology (2010 – 2030)

Read the full “The shape of Jobs to come” report (2.38MB / PDF), see the press release ( PDF) or look through the 20 featured jobs ( PDF).

The purpose of this report is to highlight examples of the kinds of jobs, careers and professions that could result from advances in science and technology in the period from 2010 to 2030. The report was commissioned as part of the Science: [So what? So everything] campaign which is aimed at promoting public interest in science and engineering and highlighting their importance to the UK’s future. Science: [So what? So everything] is funded by the Department for Business Innovation and Skills.

To help identify and understand the jobs of the future, the study has undertaken a short science and technology ‘horizon scanning’ exercise. The aim was to identify a sample of key science and technology trends and developments that could occur over the next twenty years and create a timeline highlighting when such developments may come to maturity. Based on these trends, we have identified and profiled a sample selection ‘The Shape of Jobs to come’ – encompassing examples both of ‘Jobs that don’t yet Exist’ and of current jobs that could become more prominent. These were evaluated by a global audience of future thinkers using an online survey.

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The World in 2030

3. The Science and Technology Horizon

4. The Shape of Jobs to Come

5. Global Survey Findings

6. The Shape of Jobs to Come – Key Implications

7. Conclusions

Appendices

1 The World in 2030 Background Data

2 The Science and Technology Horizon- Key Trends

3 The Science and Technology Timeline 2010 – 2030

4 The Shape of Jobs to Come – Long List

5 Geographic Breakdown of Survey Respondents

FutureScape Issue 9 – January 5th 2010 – 50 Forecasts for 2010

In this Issue:

• Republishing FutureQuest Content
• Request for Case Examples of Foresight and Innovative Thinking in Action Convention 2020 Survey
• Fast Future’s 50 Forecasts for 2010
• Rohit on the Road
• About Fast Future
• Forthcoming Dates for your Diary

Welcome to the first issue of FutureScape for 2010. I hope 2010 has started well for you and that the year ahead is a rewarding one. I wish you every success in all your endeavours.

If this is not your copy and would like to subscribe, please sign up here.

You can download all our previous newsletters here.

Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766
rohit@fastfuture.com

Republishing FutureQuest Content

A number of people have asked to re-publish our content in their magazines, blogs, websites and newsletters. We are happy for you to do this – if you want to republish any articles, please acknowledge the source, provide a link back to our website and let us know you’ve done it.

Request for Case Examples of Foresight and Innovative Thinking in Action

We are currently doing some research on the following themes and would welcome any suggestions on and links to good case examples of either:

Practical Foresight – How are foresight and futures thinking being used effectively to change our organisational paradigms, tackle strategic challenges, open up new opportunities, develop new business models, create different products and processes or engage with customers, suppliers and partners in a radically different way?

Thinking organisations – What examples can be found of organisations that have built a genuine ‘thinking culture’ – encouraging and rewarding people to ‘think the unthinkable’, challenge existing orthodoxies and assumptions and try bold new ideas?

Please email any case example suggestions to rohit@fastfuture.com

Convention 2020 Survey – The Future of Meetings, Venues and Meeting Destinations

This is just a gentle reminder to take a few minutes to take part in our latest survey. The closing date is January 10th 2010. Thank you to the 1000+ who have already done so.

The survey is part of the larger Convention 2020 study (see full details – where you can also sign up for the dedicated project newsletter.

In the survey, we have posed a number of scenarios regarding live events in 2020 and would welcome your responses. To take part just click here.

We’d be grateful if you could share this link with your colleagues. Everyone who completes the survey and leaves their email address will get a copy of the final report. Fast Future will make a charitable donation of US$1 to The Children’s Society for every respondent.

Fast Future’s 50 Forecasts for 2010

In October and November we shared the first 25 of our top 50 forecasts for the world in 2010. We have had a number of requests to publish them all together for ease of access – so here is the full list of 50 – we’d welcome your feedback:

Global Challenges

1. Facing up to Ageing – In the developed economies, lifespan estimates are increasing by up to five months every year and there is up to a 90% chance that those under 50 will live to 100. These patterns will be emulated for citizens in the developing economies as their incomes, lifestyles and health outlook improve. At the same time we know our pension systems cannot cope – they were not designed for people lasting 15 years past retirement let alone 35. In addition, with population decline in many developed economies, we know that the ratio of workers to retirees is shrinking – reducing the pool of pension funds available to serve a rising level of demand.

Governments, businesses, the media, society and the pensions industry all have to accept that this is a crisis of our own making – it is not something that’s happened overnight. We have had warnings about an impending pensions crisis for over 20 years and have chosen to do little about it. Over the next two years we think the debate will move beyond the current search for blame as people begin to realise that their pension funds won’t be able to cope. We will all be forced to think about how we can fund ourselves for a 100 year lifespan. This might mean working well into our 70’s, looking at alternative financing and investment models, changing our lifestyles to reduce our spending, ensuring that we will be healthy enough to keep working and keeping our skills and capabilities relevant.

2. Dealing with Debt – The current- potentially temporary – respite in the financial crisis is allowing governments to take stock of the impact of rescue packages on public finances. We know that in 2010 the debt of the richer members of the G20 is expected to rise close to 100% of GDP. Tough choices will be required on how to service the interest payments and bring down the size of the debt burden. Policy options are limited and potentially unpopular. Cuts in public spending, reducing public sector workforces, higher taxes and encouraging inflation are the most likely instruments. These will have a dampening effect on the economy and slow the pace of recovery. It will be interesting to see the choices made by different nations. The impact will be severe on public sector suppliers – consultants, lawyers and other servi ce providers could experience some of the biggest cutbacks. Redundancies in these firms will be an inevitable consequence.

3. Sustainability 2.0 – While we expect a continued focus on environmental sustainability, we also think there will be a lot more debate about the long term sustainability of our governance and business models. What are the right set of processes, voter engagement mechanisms, funding approaches and controls required to manage a country in the 21st century? Is globalisation the right growth model for large corporations, what is an acceptable level of growth to target and what business and financing models should underpin these choices?

Politics Gets Complex

4. New Routes to Change – The range of challenges facing developed and developing economies grows ever more rapidly – as does the outpouring of ideas from every corner on how to fix them. Many governments seem almost clueless as to how to make progress on multiple fronts and how to harness a diverse range of inputs. Despite the scale of the challenges, many are still reluctant to ‘think the unthinkable’ on issue as diverse as effective governance for the 21st healthcare funding, banking regulation and environmental protection. Increasingly we will see foundations and independent initiatives funding such ‘clean sheet thinking’ projects – enabling them to sit outside the political process and consider a wider range of options than most governments would dare to. The results will then be used to facilitate public debate and influence governmen ts from the top down and ‘outside in’.

5. Embracing Complexity – The finance crisis has helped us understand that our world is increasingly made up of highly complex interconnected and adaptive systems whose behaviour is difficult to model or predict. Governments and businesses will increasingly start to embrace complexity thinking to help understand and plan for the world we now operate in. The real breakthrough will come when we start to teach our children about complexity and how to make decisions in an uncertain world with imperfect information.

6. New Rules of Engagement – The failure to reach any serious binding global agreements on climate change at the COP-15 Summit in Copenhagen in December 2009 could herald the end of an era on global agreements. Increasing attention will be paid to finding new models for reaching consensus that don’t require leaders and administrators to fly around the world desperately seeking to configure a deal which then gets ignored in practice.

7. Public Unity – Private Retrenchment -The G20 members will continue to talk boldly in public about collective global action and open markets. In practice, nationalistic attitudes will abound. This will result in more protectionist trade policy, greater competition to attract inward investment, a bias for awarding of government contracts to local suppliers and a tougher immigration stance.

8. Training gets a Boost – We anticipate a number of publicly funded initiatives to support training and retraining from developed economy governments. The goals will be to try to reduce welfare costs, cut or prevent unemployment and speed the economic recovery. Where elections are due, these may be seen as politically motivated acts.

Economic Power Shifts

9. Joyless Growth – A recovery has begun or will soon start in most economies. However, while the headline figures will be positive, sentiment will be slow to recover as markets remain nervous about the potential for a ‘double dip’ recession. Redundancies will continue, firms will struggle to cope with persistent lower price expectations from customers, and public spending cuts will bite. Even small items of bad news could see market confidence ebb away and economies head back towards negative growth.

10. Analysts find the Future – Investment analysts are still reeling from the client backlash over them missing the downturn and its impact on the companies, sectors and countries they cover. Many analysts are starting to recognise the need to assess far more than a firms’ past performance, order book and product pipeline. Greater emphasis will be placed on assessing the future readiness of a firm or country’s leadership, the quality of the foresight work they are doing, the strength of their external networks and open innovation processes, their preparedness for a range of economic scenarios and their resilience in the face of possible decade of turbulence.

Customer and Consumer Trends

11. Spending – The Playing Field Has Changed – The downward shift to lower priced products and less conspicuous consumption is unlikely to see a rapid reversal in 2010. The spike in sales for Christmas 2009 should not automatically be seen as a turning point. High levels of personal debt, uncertainty over job prospects and general nervousness about the economy could lead to a more permanent 3-5 year downward shift in market behaviour.

12. Savings in Fashion – Despite government exhortations to help spend our economies out of the downturn, many consumers in developed markets will look to reduce personal debt and increase their levels of savings. Economic uncertainty, pensions concerns and healthcare costs will all be contributing factors to this new found thrift mentality. Some may wait for a second downturn before adopting such behaviours.

13. Ethical, Green and Cheap – Consumers will be increasingly willing to buy products with strong ethical or green credentials. However, in the mass market, price will remain a key consideration and it remains unlikely that vendors will be able to charge a premium for such products in the near term.

14. Zero Tolerance – Customers will increasingly vote with their feet or their fingers in the face of poor service or website failure. Whilst they may tell their friends about the poor service experience, they will be less and less inclined to inform the vendor – particularly where the amounts involved are relatively small.

15. Customer Insight gets Neural – A growing number of firms will adopt neuromarketing and related techniques to develop real insight into the neurological basis for customer behaviours. Others will continue to do market research whilst ignoring the wealth of direct customer feedback already available.

Global Business

16. Internationalism Becomes the Norm – In ‘Globalinc. An Atlas of The Multinational Corporation’, Mederd Gabel and Henry Bruner suggest that the number of multinationals has grown from 3,000 in 1990 to over 63,000 today – rising to 820,000 if affiliates are included[i]. This number is expected to accelerate in 2010 as would-be multinationals from China, India and other emerging nations seek a foothold and buy-up troubled businesses in key markets. At the same time, developed economy businesses not already abroad will be looking to enter emerging markets and form foreign partnerships in an attempt to overcome sluggish conditions at home.

17. Africa Bound – In the search for new growth, businesses from developed and developing economies alike will make an aggressive push into markets across Africa. Entrepreneurs from Asia may fare better and see faster results as they are more able to adapt to local business practices to secure opportunities than less fleet-footed global firms.

18. Clipped Wings – The airline industry will continue to experience turmoil as business passengers in particular are slow to return. Casualty rates could be high – airlineupdate.com lists 90 airline failures and 7 mergers for 2008 and a further 31 failures and 6 mergers for 2009. We can expect 30-40 more failures and further mergers by the end of 2010.

Business Strategy

19. Customer Lock-in – Nervousness about the strength of the recovery will drive innovation in sales and pricing strategies. Where possible, suppliers will seek to lock customers in to longer term deals during the early months of the year – with options such as subscription models, long-term discounts and staggered payment arrangements. Equipment suppliers will increasingly have to adopt an approach of providing the product for free and then charging a rental fee or proportion of the savings or increased revenues / profits where these can be attributed.

20. Free or Fantastic – Vendors of both physical and electronic goods and services will have to face up to the fact that hyper-competition and almost unlimited consumer choice are driving prices down to zero. A range of alternative revenue streams are then required to make the endeavour viable. Those that want to generate direct payment will have to demonstrate that their offering is truly fantastic and worth paying for. For example in the UK newspaper industry, the Financial Times has successfully raised its hard copy cover price on a regular basis and charged for its premium content online. In contrast, the London Evening Standard has had to abandon the charging model and move to a free circulation model.

21. Accelerating Innovation – One of the most interesting responses to the downturn has been the rising focus on innovation. This has ranged from a wave of new product launches to radical rethinks of entire business models and operating systems. However, many larger businesses have found their internal processes a barrier when it comes to turning ideas into reality. We think the focus of innovation initiatives will increasingly focus on streamlining decision making to allow more rapid testing of new ideas.

22. Open Innovation – Wave 2 – While there are notable examples of businesses such as P&G and Apple succeeding with open innovation, the reality is that many have struggled to make it work. Internal processes, legal issues and a prevailing mindset of distrust have seen many such initiatives fail. We expect to see three dominant approaches in the next wave of open innovation in 2010. Firstly, some major corporations will bite the bullet and truly embrace the concept. The majority of large firms will followed the route of controlled experimentation to open up particular innovation opportunities around new product development using platforms such as Innocentive. The third will see a growing band of innovators who use open and crowd sourced approaches to conceive, develop and market their products and services.

23. Improving M&A Potential – The downturn has left a number of firms struggling for survival or at least significantly weaker than 18 months ago. The risk of a double dip downturn makes many even more vulnerable. Cash rich corporates, investment funds and even private investors will be more active in seeking out opportunities to acquire and integrate or break up these ‘bargain basement’ businesses.

24. The Quick and the Dead – In most sectors, over the next 12-18 months, we expect to see a wave of new ventures and industry level initiatives taken by entrants and existing players. These are entrepreneurs and firms who took advantage of the downturn to take or accelerate bold moves. The results of their efforts will come as a shock to many in the sector who ‘didn’t see it coming’. A second breed of ‘dead men walking’ will become apparent as traditionally successful businesses struggle to come to terms with a new world order.

Business Operations

25. Leaner and Meaner – Businesses that emerge successfully from the recession should be fitter than before, raising the possibility both of increasingly competitive firms and of a jobless recovery.

26. Sustainability Goes Mainstream – Google’s SmartMeter provides information on your Google home page on how you use electricity and how to be more efficient. The emergence of such applications, and the money they can help save, will appeal in a post recessionary world where sustainable products and services will be increasingly common. The challenge will be to demonstrate that products are truly sustainable in a clear and simple manner.

27. Responsible Investment – As the green credentials of company spending and investment increasingly come under the microscope, the need for a Director of Responsible / Sustainable Investment will manifest itself and become apparent in many organisations.

28. The Listening Organisation – We expect to see more Chief Listening Officers appointed to ensure companies are truly hearing and responding to customer needs, concerns and comments emerging from direct feedback and via the social media such as Twitter.

29. Skills Shortage – Despite unemployment rates of up to 10% in the U.S. and across the E.U., many industries will face continuing shortages in key areas owing to a misalignment of skills required and available qualified talent.

30. Travel Under Scrutiny – Cost pressures and nervousness about a double dip downturn will continue to impact corporate travel budgets. Despite the evidence about the value of face-to-face meetings, travel restrictions will be imposed, and investment will rise in electronic alternatives from teleconferencing to virtual events. This will drive the growth of alternatives to business travel, such as Telepresence and Halo rooms. Increasing political instability in various world regions may also have a restraining effect on travel plans.

31. Telecommuting Grows – Rapidly increasing worldwide broadband connections and real time technology connections now make it feasible to be fully effective from home. Globalised work teams also render the concept of ‘going into the office’ a pointless exercise if your team is on another continent. At the same time, the desire to reduce office space requirements and overheads, cut CO2 emissions, avoid gridlocked transport systems and retain happy talent will all drive the take up of telecommuting.

32. Rise of E-Learning – The desire to maintain skills and motivation while containing costs and responding faster to business needs will see firms and training providers make greater investments in the use of e-learning. Increasing use will be made of virtual worlds to deliver simulation-based training in fields as diverse as healthcare, auditing and financial services.

33. Growth in Software as a Service (SaaS) / Cloud Computing – A growing number of businesses of all sizes will adopt SaaS / Cloud Computing strategies. This trend to renting applications from third party providers over the internet will grow as businesses look to improve the functionality they can offer, increase flexibility and control costs.

Engagement with Social Media

34. Social Networks Harvested – A number of models will emerge claiming to offer approaches to monetizing individual or corporate networks. While some will be transferable from one business to another, many will not prove to be portable from their originators to other entities.

35. Business Gets Social – As yet there are relatively few examples of big companies that have scaled social initiatives beyond one-off marketing or communications initiatives. One exception is Best Buy’s Twelpforce, which leverages hundreds of employees to provide customer support via Twitter. Cost and service pressures will see more firms developing business-wide social media engagement strategies that encompass customers, prospects, suppliers and partners.

36. Internal Social Media Policies Tighten – With user rates booming across the social media platforms, and growing pressures on headcount, we could see growing restrictions on the internal use of the social networks. Even where the company understands the benefits and is making an investment in social media, strict controls may be adopted on how much time staff can spend visiting such networks in company hours.

Ethics and Environment

37. CSR Backlash – Product advertising is now full of claims about firms’ ethical and green credentials. However, consumers are becoming cynical about exactly what is being done. There will be real pressure for transparency on exactly how much of the item price is actually being donated to build schools, buy books, plant trees or train a teacher. There will also be a real focus on providing evidence of what is being done with the money.

38. Our Friends Electric – There will be a major increase in activity in the electric and hybrid vehicle markets. Existing car manufacturers will announce a number of new vehicles and concept development projects. New entrants to the sector will start to bring products to market and a number of vehicle projects will find investors. Activity levels in China will be particularly high.

Science and Technology

39. Serving the Masses – We will see rapid growth in mainly science and technology based solutions targeted at the needs of the developing world. Inspired by examples such as the Nokia Money mobile money transfer service, big corporations will increasingly develop offerings targeted at the low income mass markets.

40. Loving the Labs – The government stimulus packages announced in 2009 included a major boost for science and technology investment. Notable examples included 10Tn Yuan (1Tn Euros, US$1.5Tn) in China, 900M Euros in Germany, 731M Euros in France and 685M Euros in Norway. Business and the investment sector will also place a major focus on investment in science and technology ventures as a route to driving new growth opportunities.

Ten emerging areas of science and technology that we expect to hear a lot more about in the next year are listed below:

41. The Rise of Citizen Science – Public participation in scientific research will become increasingly popular. Amateurs will see and seek out greater opportunity to gather data, participate in collaborative studies run by both professionals and amateurs and lend their computers to large scale ‘grid computing’ efforts such as SETI (the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence).

42. NBIC-convergence – The convergence of the domains of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technologies and cognitive science offers the potential for truly transformational scientific breakthroughs in fields as diverse as brain science, energy, environmental protection and food production.

43. Synthetic Biology – Synthetic biology involves designing and building basic biological building blocks that can perform functions as diverse as cleaning up toxic waste, growing electronic circuits, and producing artificial drugs food and fuels.

44. Personalized Medicine – Commercial services such as 23andme.com are already available that can read and map a significant part of an individual’s genome for less than $500 in 2-4 weeks. Advances could see the price fall to around $100 to sequence our entire genome in eight hours or less. This would enable medical treatments to be tailored to our unique genetic profile.

45. Novel Energy Sources – As the level of government and private venture capital funding for green technology increases, so the range of candidate technologies will grow. Expect to see regular coverage of ‘breakthrough concepts’ as diverse as energy producing kites, liquid and printable batteries and a variety of initiatives attempting to capture energy from human motion.

46. Food Production Methods – A variety of approaches will be discussed for closing the gap between production and demand. Expect to see Genetic Modification back under the spotlight along with concepts such as vertical farming, salt water farming, precision farming using satellites to optimise seeding and harvesting and artificially reared meat.

47. 3D Printing / Personal Fabricators – Three dimensional printing techniques have been used for some time in manufacturing to create 3D items by bonding particles together layer by layer. As the costs and footprint of 3D printers come down, so the potential emerges for ‘print on demand’ fabricators to be deployed on the high street – enabling stores to offer a far wider range of products while reducing the physical stock holding. The ultimate would be the personal fabricator which sits at home next to the washing machine and which enables us to print items (for example a plate) locally – using ‘recipes’ we have purchased and our own designs.

48. Ambient Intelligence – The expectation is that everyday objects from wallpaper to carpets, furniture and our clothing will all have embedded intelligence and an IP (Internet Protocol) address so that our environments can interact with and adapt to us. For example, picture the scene, we are having a stressful phone conversation, our mobile phone picks this up and responds. It communicates to our clothes to increase the air circulation around our body, requests the wallpaper to display a brighter tone and instructs the photo frame to display a happy or uplifting image. While all of these may sound far fetched, each development is already being worked on in the labs and ambient intelligence is seen as the glue to help link these developments together and shape the environment to the needs of the individual.

49. Self Replicating Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Real world applications of AI surround us – from satellite navigation to aircraft autopilots and washing machine control systems. The next generation of AI programs to emerge from the labs will demonstrate ever greater capacity to learn, adapt to their surroundings and even replicate themselves.

50. The Singularity – The basic concept was popularised by futurist Ray Kurzweil. He argues that we can expect the continued application of Moore’s law – the doubling of computer power every 12-18 months – for many decades. Moore’s law coupled to advances in AI will lead to a point around 30-40 years from now when devices will have so much computing power that machine intelligence will exceed human intelligence. A film on this concept is scheduled for release at the end of 2009 and will lead to widespread debate on the issue.

[i] http://www.globalenvision.org/library/2/1179

Rohit on the Road
In the coming weeks, Rohit will be delivering keynote speeches on foresight driven innovation, winning in a downturn, the future of the global economy, drivers of change, outlook 2020 and a number of industry focused themes. He is currently scheduled to be in London, Helsinki, Florida, Macau, Coventry, Denver, Exeter, Brussels, Qatar, Melbourne, Frankfurt, Prague, Barcelona, Bilbao and Alesund (Norway). If you would like to meet with him or organise a speech for your organisation while he is in your city, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

About Fast Future
Fast Future is a research and consulting firm which focuses on helping clients anticipate and develop innovative responses to the forces, patterns of change and ideas shaping the future. To discuss your needs for research, consulting, a speech or workshop, contact rohit@fastfuture.com or call +44 (0)20 8830 0766

Forthcoming Dates for your Diary
January 19th-20th – Coral Triangle Initiative Sustainable Growth Business Summit with the Philippines Government – Manila click here for details

- 50 key trends
- 100 emerging trends
- 10 major patterns of change
- Key challenges and choices for leaders
- Strategic decision making framework
- Scenarios for 2012
- Key futures tools and techniques
- Price: £49.95 / €54.95 /$69.95
- To purchase, email an invoice request to rohit@fastfuture.com

Review the project plan.