By Rohit Talwar

Business in a Transformative Context

We are seeing the physical world colliding with the digital world. Physical world people and businesses tend to focus on things they can see, touch, and manufacture. Even when their output exists largely in digital form (e.g. legal contracts) they still think of their world in very tangible terms. They are often comfortable with things they are familiar with, tend to think of progress in incremental ways, typically see technology as an enabler, and rarely see themselves as technology businesses.

Those born of or living in the digital world tend to be more forward looking, comfortable with technology, early adopters of new technology having grown up with social media, electronic devices and virtual communications. When they look at the world or an industry, they see the data and information first and look for streamlined systems solutions. They focus on outcomes and believe that – from vehicle manufacture to curing world hunger – the problem is at heart one that can be solved by technology-enabled redesign of the entire system, not just by human brain power and incremental improvement. Their view is that the application of science and new technologies are the way to develop solutions to existing problems, and to capitalising on emerging opportunities.

Technology’s “Possibility Explosion”

We are seeing a “possibility explosion” from exponential science and technology developments. Not only that, we are seeing the potential of the combinational impact of technologies that are being developed in tandem, e.g. artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. What we know about these technologies is that they will drive dramatic and rapid change; in society, across industries, business, leisure, government, healthcare, and education.

The boundaries between magic and science are blurring. There are some radical developments taking place, many of which we will see come to fruition during our working lives including mapping and uploading the human brain, and cognitive, genetic, physical and electronic enhancement of the human body. These radical developments – particularly when put together with AI – could create challenging ethical dilemmas should machines gain self-awareness and even emotional intelligence.

We don’t have to look very far into the past to see the transformative impact of combinational technology development. Although the pace of change is accelerating, transformation in ICT has been ongoing for some years, so we have an evolutionary model we can look to. Think of the computer; from room-sized machines in air conditioned rooms, to the desktop, the laptop, and the tablet. Now consider the parallel development of the telephone, from the desktop to the “luggable” mobile, mobile with apps, and the smartphone. Just think for a second how transformative smartphones alone have been, how they have become part of the fabric of our daily life, and how we take for granted the ability to access information, communicate and be entertained on the move. The following examples demonstrate the exponential possibilities that are on the horizon in the aftermath of the most recent technological bursts of progress.

• Brain–computer interface (BCI) is a direct communication pathway between an enhanced or wired brain and an external device. A BCI is often directed at researching, mapping, assisting, augmenting, or repairing human cognitive or sensory-motor functions, but their application could also extend to “mind control” of objects and devices.
• Wearables and Implants or near body devices are coming into play. Many are currently being used for health and sports performance monitoring but increasingly we see wearable technology for other uses; Google’s Glasses and the Apple watch being just two examples. Soon, we will see device recharge technology built into his clothing fabrics, conductive fibres woven into fabric that provide processing capacity for wearable devices, and GPS tracking devices fitted into shoes. We are already used to some implants: heart pace-makers, cochlear implants, and ocular implants for example. But a new range of implants will help to enhance other body functions into the future including memory for our electronic devices. Some of these technologies are being patented now.
• Augmented and virtual reality look set to play increasingly significant roles as we seek ever more immersive experiences. A growing range of devices, surfaces, and appliances in the home, office, factory, and school will be connected – creating the so called Internet of Things (IoT), and we will see new ways to interact with information. Estimates vary widely, but within ten years there could be between 200 billion and a trillion devices and objects connected to the internet, all capable of exchanging information and providing different sorts of functionality and experiences. Video and projection technologies will improve, including holographic technologies that will allow us to share information in new ways.
• Autonomous vehicles – A number of experiments are taking place on public roads across the world, and while cars have been the focus of much media attention, lorries, buses, trains, ships, and planes are all subject to developments in autonomous / driverless technology.
• 3D printing provides the opportunity to distribute production to where it’s needed and at significantly reduced costs. Why would you manufacture products thousands of miles away from the market and transport them, if instead you can make them where the consumer is? The 3D printed Strati car produced by Local Motors is a prime example. A typical car has say 5,000 components, whereas the electric powered Strati has 50. such designs can be developed 1,000 times cheaper than a traditional car and each vehicle manufactured up to 22 times faster.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) is arguably the big game changer and becoming more common place. We already see narrow AI in use in internet searches, customer targeting applications, and in predictive analytics. But AI has much greater capability that will emerge into every aspect of our lives in the near future. Increasingly devices will learn more about us, help to provide decision support to us and take on more of our tasks. We are automating a lot more of human social and workplace activity and that is set to continue at an accelerated rate.

The Future of Business

At Fast Future, we have identified six high value industry clusters that we expect to be radically impacted or enabled by exponential and combinatorial technology developments. Indeed, each underlying sector within each cluster is expected to worth US$1Tn or more by 2025:

• Information and communications technologies (including, AI, robotics and blockchain)
• Production and construction systems (From 3D/4D printing and synthetic biology to rapid, green and sustainable construction approaches)
• Citizen services and domestic infrastructure (from health and elder care to smart vehicles and new education approaches)
• New societal infrastructure and services (encompassing intelligent transport, the sharing economy and smart cities)
• Industry transformation (the modernisations of sectors such as financial services, accounting and legal)
• Energy and environment (from renewables and fracking to environmental protection and repair).

These technological advances will have an impact right across society and all business sectors, fundamentally changing many. For those that doubt the possible scale of impact, there are a number of prominent recent examples where established businesses have ignored the signals sent by new market entrants, new technologies and new business models.

For example, Kodak ignored new market entrants and were over confident in their brand and their customer loyalty. As a result, their market share declined rapidly and they rejected a technology innovation of their own invention – the digital camera. The company emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2013 and is now a very different business.

Similarly, in 2000 the relative new entrant Netflix proposed partnership with Blockbuster. The suggestion was that Netflix would run Blockbuster’s brand online, and Blockbuster promote Netflix in stores. Netflix advantages were lower costs and greater product variety. Having turned down Netflix’ overtures, Blockbuster were unable or unwilling to alter their business model and went bankrupt in 2010, while Netflix has market capitalisation of over $65 billion.

Conversely, other companies have embraced the opportunity to deploy technology to develop products and services that put the customer at the heart of the operation.

UBER was founded as a consumer-centric transportation company that utilized licensed taxi drivers for ridesharing services. The basis of what we see today was the integration a mobile application to connect passengers with drivers of vehicles for hire within a specified geographical area. What differentiated Uber from hundreds of other taxi apps was a more customer oriented experience including the ability to track their vehicle as it is on route to them, driver rating, and new payment options including fare sharing between multiple occupants. Cuber is disrupting the market for taxi cabs and transportation in general and has already expanded into home delivery, food and helicopter services. It is also exploring driverless cars, drone delivery and on-demand urban air transportation.

Airbnb offers a user-friendly site for discovering and booking accommodation. The curated listings offer consumers far more than just “renting a spare room.” The proposition is about discovering cool, quirky, and creative properties. Rentals are generally 30-80% lower than available hotels. For the property owner, it is free to list with Airbnb who charge a 3% fee to process payments. Guests pay a service fee to Airbnb. They too have potential to transform a traditional service model – accommodation and space rental.

Harnessing Exponentiality

Moore’s Law has shown that $1,000 worth of computing power will double in capability every 18-24 months. If we apply that to the processing power of existing computers, in seven years or so we will see computers 128 times more powerful than today. Organisations that can develop the appropriate mindset and apply this notion of exponentiality could develop thriving business propositions and achieve dramatic growth.

Indeed, many organisations are trying to bring exponential ideas into their thinking. They are asking if technology can radically change what they do, and what they can change to solve more problems faster, deliver quicker and dramatically reduce process times. In short, they are using exponential thinking approaches to change the way they look at problems, solutions, and opportunities. They are changing the personality of their organisation, posing the question, “Should we play by the rules of the game or change the game itself?” They recognise that staying still – taking no action – is normally tantamount to going backwards.

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By Rohit Talwar

Image: https://pixabay.com/photos/technology-abstract-data-3093707/

By Rohit  Talwar

How might advances in artificial intelligence impact senior level opportunities in the recruitment sector?

Prime Minister Teresa May recently shared the UK government’s vision for an increasingly artificial intelligence (AI) enabled future at the World Economic Forum in Davos: A future characterised by more research, AI deployment, automation, and jobs in the digital economy. So, this should mean more opportunities in recruitment? Not so fast.

The pace of development in AI is delivering systems that can increasingly outperform humans across a range of tasks from diagnosing cancer to interpreting complex texts. In recruitment, we can expect to see AI playing a role in candidate search, CV evaluation, credential checking, and even interviewing candidates. Successive waves of AI-enabled automation will certainly drive technological unemployment across a range of sectors.Collectively, these developments could mean fewer jobs at each level in recruitment firms.

Inevitably, we will see some recruitment firms embrace AI fully and gradually replace humans at every level with ever-smarter technology. Less front-line recruiters should mean a thinning out further up the organisation. However, the industry is not rushing to embrace AI and the change will happen more gradually at first. Step five years out, and we could see even more diversity in the sector with a spectrum running from highly automated firms with literally no employees through to those that deploy the technology in the background but retain a highly human touch in the crucial client and candidate facing activities.

The challenge for recruitment firms is to invest the time now to start understanding this most disruptive of technologies, investigate current and potential application and employment implications in client sectors, and start looking at how it might be used in recruitment. We would then recommend doing some scenario planning to see the different storylines that might play out for the recruitment sector. These scenarios should naturally include different rates of take up of AI across different client sectors and the potential impact on employment numbers, turnover and recruitment demand. The time invested here will provide a powerful basis from which to spot emerging opportunities within a changing employment landscape.

The upside of change is that new AI-powered businesses and industries will emerge in sectors such as healthcare, human augmentation, synthetic biology, supercomputing, driverless vehicles, smart materials, robotics, drones, smart buildings, and countless others that will emerge over time. Indeed, over the next 7-10 years, the global economy could grow from around $78 trillion today to $120 trillion and 50% or more of this growth could come from firms and sectors that don’t yet exist.

We expect the innovation leaders in recruitment will look to automate using AI and other technologies wherever they can. However, rather than making staff redundant, the technology will free them up, allowing them to use that time to learn about and get close to the emerging sectors. This should mean that these leaders are well positioned to serve the increasingly complex, precise, and often multidisciplinary recruitment requirements of these new firms and their investors.

Hence, while AI will undoubtedly impact the recruitment sector and the client sectors it serves, it could provide the much-needed stimulus to automate more routine tasks and free up time to pursue new growth opportunities. This could in turn see changing organisational structures changing in recruitment firms. Far flatter hierarchies might emerge, with more staff operating in hunter gatherer mode, researching and building a presence in the new growth sectors.

At the operational level, AI tools will provide far greater information of personal productivity and effectiveness across the team, allowing leaders to target training and coaching interventions more effectively, and ensure more objective and consistent performance evaluation.

Clearly, it may be daunting to accept that the sector, like its clients, will be impacted by AI, with the potential for job losses at all levels. However, we are at a sufficiently early stage in the evolution of the technology for firms to give themselves the opportunity to learn, adapt, pursue new growth opportunities, and ultimately create a more human and differentiated workplace through the effective use of AI.

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By Rohit Talwar

Who should pay for the social costs when food and beverage businesses boost their profits by replacing people with robots and AI?

Every day, restaurants everywhere across the planet prepare for the lunch rush. Those who have been in the industry for some while are prepared – they have an intuitive sense or historic records of the most popular menu items, the time it takes from ordering to serving, the flow and cadence of seating, and how long the lunch rush will last. Armed with such preparatory knowledge, veteran employees have a strategy and minimize surprises. New workers, on the other hand, can stumble until they figure out the patterns or someone tells them.

Now imagine the lunch rush handled by artificial intelligence (AI). Diners might be recognized by facial recognition built into the restaurant’s décor, such as the robotic fish that swim in the aquarium in the Dubai airport – capturing biometric identification data as patrons gaze at the tranquil movements in the fish tank. Once identified, the customer’s preferences and dining history could be accessed instantly. With software powering smart or even super intelligent machines and robots, every aspect of the food and beverage industry could be impacted. Though the planning and strategizing might still require a human touch, the challenge of dealing with a lunch crowd takes on a wholly different flavour: rather than keep up with the orders, the business would instead be in the position to foster relationships with regulars, and come up with new ways of pleasing their palates. The focus becomes driving and growing the business, not surviving the lunch rush.

Faster and More Disruptive Change

So, this seems like a great opportunity and an obvious choice, but what’s the catch? Well, the next automation wave is poised to sweep through and reshape the industrial landscape, change the nature of work as we know it, replace humans with machines at every skill level, and potentially drive up the number of people facing permanent unemployment. Technologies such as AI, blockchain, big data, cloud computing, hyperconnectivity, 3D/ 4D printing, smart materials, and synthetic biology are developing at an exponential rate. Individually, they can disrupt entire industries such as food and beverages. When combined, they will have an even greater effect. The impacts already range from smart farm management and robo-bartenders to fully automated restaurants and even the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease ten years before the symptoms show – don’t wait for the revolution – it’s already happening.

However, we don’t know how far and how fast AI and these other disruptive technologies will spread. Furthermore, we don’t know how many jobs they will take out, how society will respond, and the extent to which firms will retain people when they automate. Equally, we don’t really know how fast the newer industry sectors like vertical farming and laboratory grown food will grow, or how many new jobs they will create. In practice we are in a state of heightened cluelessness – which is only to be expected given the scale and pace of the changes taking place.

Taxing the Robots?

Unfettered automation could have a potentially seismic impact on jobs and hence unemployment, government tax revenues, and the provision of public services. The world is waking up to the issue, and the conversation has started about how to deal with the consequences. Most do not want to stop innovation or the pursuit of business efficiency. However, a growing number – such as the leaders in Silicon Valley – also understand that if the robots are doing the farming, cooking the meals, and serving the drinks, then the money must come from somewhere for our former employees to buy what we’re selling. Enter the notion of using robot taxes to fund the cost of unemployment benefits or guaranteed income schemes. The basic idea is to impose some form of additional tax on businesses that replace people with AI, robots, and other advanced technologies. Clearly, this is not an idea that will meet with instant and universal approval.

Even those advocating robot taxes are not necessarily seeing them as a long-term solution. One school of thought is that eventually AI and its super-intelligent cousins will replace almost all jobs performed by humans. The argument is that the technology will be so much more productive and efficient than humans that it will create true abundance. Humans might never need to look for paid employment again and the notion of salaried jobs will all but disappear. In this scenario, the benefits of automation will be distributed more equitably across society, and we as individuals will be free to pursue infinite leisure time – investing it in personal development, self-enrichment pastimes, and deepening our connection with our friends, family, and communities. Whilst a fascinating and potentially inconceivable possibility, most would say that this is a long long long way off, and we need a more immediate solution for the practical challenges on the near-horizon. Hence the robot tax debate.

Here, we look at five key questions to help food and beverage industry leaders explore the subject of taxing the ‘bots – something that could well be front and centre on the business agenda faster than we think.

1. What would robot taxes pay for?

Clearly, the primary purpose of robot taxes would be to address the societal consequences of job automation. So, the most obvious application would be to fund unemployment benefits or guaranteed incomes and services. However, it is difficult to believe that any tax raised could be permanently and transparently ring-fenced by government for one use or another. There is also a concern that higher unemployment would probably mean less revenue from income taxes and sales taxes – which might not be offset by higher corporation taxes.

Hence, there is a view that robot taxes might also be required to help fill any governmental revenue gap. Education is seen as a critical way out of the problem in the longer term. So, alongside unemployment costs, there is a strong argument that a significant proportion of the revenue from robot taxes should be channelled directly into public education. The objective would be to equip young people and adults to take up future waves of job opportunities or create their own. The underlying principle is that we should use the value of automation to benefit society and prevent future problems.

For the food and beverage industry, this might mean a higher overall tax rate – akin to putting a certain percentage of profits aside like tips in a restaurant, but this time as a gratuity to society. In some countries it might be possible to choose where your robo-tax payments are directed – e.g. the school or job retraining centre you would like to fund directly – possibly because it has some links with your organisation. For those that retain jobs in the food sector, employee morale might be boosted if they know their favourite charity or school (or even ex-colleague) is getting to share some of the profits the company enjoys.

2. What is the likelihood of governments around the world introducing a robot tax on companies that replace humans with smart machines?

South Korea has made a start by reducing the tax breaks for those investing in job-replacing automation. However, it seems unlikely that any government would introduce these kinds of direct taxation measures within the next two to five years. Skip ahead a little further, and by 2030, the possible pace of change means they could well be commonplace in many industrial nations. Countries that are embracing automation and the digital era in all its forms – such as South Korea, Japan, and Singapore – might be among the first to implement some form of automation taxation mechanism.

Whilst China is saying little right now, it has the capacity to enact policy rapidly should the need arise. The overt and hidden political power of its super-corporates means that India would probably be a very late adopter. In Europe, nations such as Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, and Germany are likely to be among the first to revamp their tax systems in this way. Whilst many in Silicon Valley argue in favour of robot taxes, the USA is likely to face strong resistance to such changes.

In the UK, the ruling Conservative Party believes that the problem will be resolved through market growth. Indeed, the Chancellor Philip Hammond, argued on a recent BBC TV interview that there have been stark but unfulfilled warnings about automation’s impact in the past, and declared that “there are no unemployed people” – which may come as a shock to the 1.42 million on the UK’s official unemployment register. In contrast, the opposition Labour Party has been courting the youth vote, and openly discussing this most contentious of ideas as it is believed to have strong support among younger voters.

This is one of those topics where momentum could build quite quickly, much in the same way as AI and driverless vehicles have come out from the shadows and now feature at the centre of government innovation agendas. Once the consequences of those investments and their impacts on employment become more apparent, so the debate about robot taxes may also rise up the priority ranking.

Even in cities and nations where no robot tax policies are enacted, food and beverage companies might still encounter it indirectly, perhaps via global supply chains. It seems inevitable that at some point they would interact with companies in some countries that are responsible for paying tax on automation. It may serve as a business deterrent in some locations, but on the other hand, some businesses may be able to use it to their benefit – extracting the maximum value from automation in a guilt-free manner.

3. How might such taxes work in practice?

The starting point here should be to evolve a more flexible approach to creating government income to fund future public services. The basis of corporate taxation could become even more complex. Government internal revenue systems would have the potential to apply AI to large multi-variable data sets to establish a firm’s tax liability based on the sector, revenues / profits per employee, the number of people employed, and geographic location of its business. The algorithms could also take account of factors such as expenditure on training and retraining current and former employees, the support given by firms to start-ups, the level of employment created further down the value chain, and the amount of tax paid by the firm’s employees.

Perhaps evaluation of a business’s broader impact on society could also be factored into determining the level of taxation applied to its profits – such as the actual level of human employment, local and national social responsibility, and environmental impact. Hence the tax paid would be based on the total national benefit and outcomes of a business’s operation across a range of different domains. In short, the taxation system could become far more complex.

It is also possible that for food and beverage companies, the value of the work they do in feeding the population and improving its health and life expectancy would be a consideration in terms of the extent to which industry automation could be taxed. Clearly, curbing food costs are in the public’s best interest, so even if workforces are cut, but the cost of a basic need declines as a result, there may be a net zero overall impact. Furthermore, If the industry could demonstrate that automation helps produce healthier food at a lower, more accessible price, this might count in its favour. Indeed, if this in turn reduced total national healthcare and health insurance costs and reduced the number of days lost by business to ill health – then such holistic national benefits might well be factored into the calculation of food and beverage sector taxes – one day.

On the other hand, could food itself, as a basic necessity, become a currency in which robot taxes could be paid? If large numbers of people become technologically unemployed, some of the government benefits they receive could include food funded or provided by players across the industry value chain. Indeed, we might see a range of goods and services forming part of a universal basic provision – mandated and co-ordinated by governments and delivered by the private sector.

4. What potential risks and drawbacks are there?

This is going to be hugely controversial and unpopular with a lot of politicians, businesses, commentators, accountancy firms, certain news media, and many economists. However, there will also be supporters of the idea, and no viable alternatives have been put on the table yet.

At the operational level, it could be costly and complex to implement, and opponents will look for any shortcomings to cast it off as a failure. The prevailing corporate mind-set is often to base multinational operations in lower tax markets, so competition for the hosting of multinational organisations could intensify without global agreements. Inevitably, many will look for ways to minimise their tax payments and a range of advisory services and schemes will spring up to help firms do so. Failure to implement a viable system or a workable alternative could have disastrous consequences for governments, leading to potential reductions in public service provision and even the failure of some economies.

In the food and beverage sector, where AI is such a natural fit, there could be several conflicts and challenges that arise around robot taxes given the complex supply chains involved. For example, the different jurisdictions crossed by a product on route to the end-consumer market may have varying approaches to – and treatment of – robot taxes for the sector. Furthermore, the importing and exporting of food and drink might eventually require new designations like “robot free” or “human made,” similar to today’s “cruelty free” and “sustainably sourced” labels.

5. What are the potential benefits?

A solution will be required if unemployment does rise and government revenues decline because of lower personal and sales tax receipts. Whilst robot taxes may not be the ultimate answer, and better solutions might emerge, it is the only clear policy idea that is even being mooted today for what is becoming an increasingly pressing societal issue. Ultimately, the notion of taxation based on automation could prove to be a catalyst for more socially responsible “carrot and stick” approaches to corporate tax. Maybe the application of increasingly sophisticated AI could be the critical enabling technology to providing a fair and transparent system with no potential for avoidance or manipulation by individual firms. Indeed, AI could one day give us even smarter tax systems that none of us can even imagine today.

Job automation, social stability, and consistent provision of public services all provide significant benefits to food and beverage businesses. One could argue that a high-quality workforce, good roads, public order, and consistent food standards, are as important to profitability as operational efficiency and process automation. However, perhaps the most immediately obvious requirement for a profitable food and beverage sector business is the presence of customers willing to buy our offerings. To keep people coming back, we may need to ensure that they have the financial means to buy the goods and services being made by the robots. In a world where many of the jobs have been automated away, at present, robot taxes are one of the few policy instruments being explored as a means of putting spending money in the hands of customer.

The reality is that AI is creating the tools that are driving the pace of automation and the prospect of increased unemployment. Equally, AI tools could also be used to design and develop new approaches to taxation that could help us address the societal consequences of technological disruption and ensure a very human future for all.

• What are the critical questions and concerns we need to explore in the design of robot tax experiments?
• If companies could allocate the money collected from robot taxes, what might be the most popular options for how it is spent and why?
• What alternative mechanisms to robot taxes might we adopt to provide and fund public services and social protection?

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By Rohit Talwar

The world is becoming increasingly aware that there is no such thing as ‘normal’ any more. Some say this near immunity to large scale shocks started with the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, Donald Trump’s election as US President, and the revelations about fake news on social media influencing voters and elections around the world. More recently we’ve seen near daily announcements of the mind-blowing capabilities of artificial intelligence, wild fluctuations in the price of the digital currency Bitcoin, and the 30,000 per cent price increases on some initial coin offerings. Shocks have become something we accept as part of the mix in the modern world and – in a sense – nothing really shocks us anymore.

However, preparing for shocks is important whether as individuals, society, governments, or businesses – and many can be anticipated. Indeed, this is core part of the work that we as futurists do. Shocks can be identified through a systematic review or ‘horizon scan’ of the trends, forces, developments, ideas, and weak signals of possible future changes. We study and share these to help people make sense of the emerging future and the possible scenarios that could play out. In our forthcoming book 500 Futures, we introduce a range of these future factors and potential disruptions which could shape the next decade and beyond. In this extract from the book, we highlight ten possible shocks that could have a truly transformative impact on life, society, government, the economy, and business.

Political and Economic Shocks

1. Brexit Brings Down the Global Economy?

A badly managed and chaotic Brexit could drive a prolonged global recession. As the exit date of March 30th 2019 draws closer, the UK government could come to a near complete standstill, with most civil servants becomes focused on extracting Britain from the European Union (EU) and putting in place the mechanisms to provide the activities formerly undertaken by the EU. The immense costs of withdrawal, implementing new systems in areas such as customs, and of recruiting new staff into government could lead to cuts in public services and welfare payments.

Foreign companies may opt to move key operations out of the UK to ensure continuity of access to European markets. The pace of automation may accelerate as firms seek to reduce their risks by cutting staff costs and replacing humans with machines. The prospects of an uncertain transition period and protracted post-transition rebalancing of the UK economy could spook markets, driving down share prices and the value of the pound. Collectively, these measures could lead to massive job cuts in both the public and private sectors, declining spending, higher import costs, and a significant reduction in government tax revenues. The UK economy could nosedive into a prolonged recession that lasts several years with a contagion effect that sweeps across the planet and drives a global downturn.

2. Techlash – Global Society Rebels Against the Machine

As the pace of development accelerates in artificial intelligence (AI) and other disruptive technologies such as blockchain, we may see a technological backlash as those affected rage against the machine. Technologies such as AI and robotics are already beginning to replace humans in significant numbers and will undoubtedly continue to do so. The hope is that new industries and the reskilling of the workforce will mean that eventually even more jobs will be created. However, there could be a significant time lag between redundancy, retraining, and the rise of the new opportunities.

At present, it seems unlikely that any government will have a guaranteed basic income scheme ready in time to help those affected to feed, house, and clothe themselves and their dependents. During that period, global social unrest could rise, and be whipped into a frenzied, and social media fuelled, rage against the machines and their owners. The implications could be severe to say the least for governments, financial institutions, technology companies, investors, the wealthy, and anyone else seen to be part of the problem.

3. The End of World Hunger Within a Decade?

A number of critical developments are coming together, and these could literally bring about the end of world hunger. A combination of technological advances in managing the food chain coupled with tighter regulation, more effective food recirculation schemes, and a growing business commitment to be more sustainable could yield a dramatic reduction in the estimated 40% of fresh food that currently goes to waste globally.

The process has already started, and the members of the Consumer Goods Forum (CGF), including Nestlé and Unilever, have committed to halving food waste in the next decade. As a result, the cost of food should also decline, and the ecological impact of food supply chains would be reduced significantly. Society would need to adapt to eating “ugly” produce, as well as accepting foods that are slightly past their ‘best by’ or expiration date. Indeed, a number of retailers are already selling the latter at a significantly lower price. Food sharing apps and community food storage might also grow to accommodate a growing subculture within the foodie movement.

4. Manual Cars Banned from City Centers?

The days of taking a drive into busy city centers could be numbered. With the transition from petrol and diesel cars to electric, the precedent was set to accept new technologies in personal transport. Electric cars sought to keep people safe from polluting petrol and diesel engines, and the promise of autonomous cars is to eliminate human error; the major cause of road traffic accidents and the resulting injuries and deaths. With the development of artificial intelligence in vehicles and the connectivity with traffic signals, city authorities might begin to ban manually driven cars from city centers, almost totally eliminating accidents.

5. Farming – No Place for Mere Humans?

Within a decade, low cost automation solutions could mean that farms of almost any scale could choose to be fully ‘human free’, operating within a web of real-time, constant monitoring from thousands of sensors. Soil sensors would trigger automated fertilizing or watering, while aerial drones could scan for and scare away natural pests like foxes and deer. Ground level sensors could also monitor weed, insect, and fungus levels and chemically analyze produce, to schedule the perfect time for driverless harvesters to roll out. Finally drones and robots could undertake home delivery, with domestic bots then preparing and serving the food. From farm to table, the produce of tomorrow might not touch the hands of a single human until the moment it is eaten by the end consumer.

Techno-Societal Shocks

6. A More Caring Society Courtesy of the Empathy Internet?

By 2025, the internet could evolve into a multi-sensory environment which helps bring about a shift in our behaviours because we can literally feel the impact of our words and actions on other people. Futurist Michio Kaku predicts that by 2025 “we will see the gradual transition from an Internet to a brain-net, in which thoughts, emotions, feelings, and memories might be transmitted instantly across the planet…historians and writers will be able to record events not just digitally, but also emotionally as well. Perhaps even tensions between people will diminish, as people begin to feel and experience the pain of others.” If this were to occur, it could provide the jolt of empathy needed for the human species to elect for cooperative survival. This may be a life-saving shock for the planet.

7. Unplugging: The Off-Grid Holiday?

The rise in workplace stress, and the pressures of 24/7 availability for the modern employee, could see employers, doctors, and even the state mandating that people deliberately take an unplugged break to rediscover and rejuvenate themselves. The desire for privacy and the need to unplug and go ‘off grid’ are also likely to grow as we become ever-more deeply enmeshed in the matrix of always-on, ever-present digitally enabled objects and sensors that connect and monitor humans virtually.

Today, some retreats offer Wi-Fi-free zones as an amenity, others promote themselves as a tech-free haven. In the near future, guaranteed off-the-grid, fully disconnected ‘sanctuaries’ may become the next hottest vacation destination to escape the fast paced, constantly observed modern lifestyle. Governments might be forced to act to mandate such breaks because of the rising costs to society of poor mental health, and the potential loss of tax revenues from people who take long-term sick leave, or simply quit their jobs due to stress.

8. Total Recall Lite – Experience Dangerous and Different Worlds from the Comfort of Main Street?

With rapidly rising rates of retail closures around the world, they could be replaced by technology rich experience centers offering the promise of plugging in, zoning out of daily life, and tuning in to a range of other worldly experiences. A new type of leisure agent could start appearing in shopping districts and malls around the world. Where once travel agents provided their clients with a one stop holiday shop, they could in increasingly be joined, and even replaced, by experience agents.

Equipped with a range of immersive, multi-sensory technologies such as augmented and virtual reality, customers would experience the heat, humidity, rain, and sounds of the Amazonian rain forest. For a drier experience, why not try the intense heat, blinding sun, and shifting sands of the Sahara Desert. For those seeking otherworldly experiences, why not select the haunting sounds of wind passing across the Elysium Planitia in the near vacuum of the Martian atmosphere. Building on the trend of experience gifting from the noughties, the popularity of this new retail phenomenon could grow exponentially.

9. The End of Aging?

Manipulation of our cells at the genetic level using ingestible nanobots could help reverse or retard the aging process quite dramatically. Nanobots are capable of moving through our bodies and blood stream to perform specific tasks such as removing or repositioning molecules from one place to another. The development of this technology might have dramatic effects on the of future human health. Based on the patient’s health requirements and their genetic predispositions, the nanobots could be designed to fabricate required medicines autonomously. Whenever certain disease starts manifesting, such as cancer, nanobots could deliver the medicine needed to fight it.

10. Death of the Screen and the Spoken Word

A decade from now, our children may not speak to us at all. Computers, smartphones, and tablets might be replaced by the projection of data and images directly onto our eyes. Virtual reality projections might be overlaid onto our eyeballs to influence and enrich our experience when interacting with the world. When coupled with thought transfer via our headsets, we might never need to speak to another human again. We could interact silently with a friend´s avatar instead of having to type the text on a screen. Mixed reality could become our daily experience of life. Those living in this mixed reality existence might choose not to interact with humans that don’t use eyeball projection and thought transfer and still require us to make the effort to speak.

Image: https://techedbackstage.net/media/posts/6/responsive/robot-3310190_1920-lg.jpg

By Rohit Talwar

Humanity’s technological reach has grown to a point where it is now possible to biologically and physically enhance healthy individuals so that they may obtain extreme characteristics and abilities. The human enhancement procedures already available to consumers offer a taste of what’s yet to come: in-eye cameras, computer chip implants, and do it yourself (DIY) gene editing are just a few examples already being implemented. So where might we go from here?

Here we look at ten human enhancements that are possible now, or could soon be, and discuss the possible implications of the rise in these different forms of “biohacking” for patients and the surgical profession.

Exoskeletons

Achieving superhuman strength and endurance might be possible with an exoskeleton suit of external body armour that turns any average person into Iron Man. Physical labour would be made easier with the addition robotic arms, legs, and a back which never tire or run low on energy. Whilst this would be great for work or recreational sports, there is potential adverse employment side-effect. With fewer exoskeleton-enhanced people required to do the work, it puts house movers, miners, farm labourers, warehouse staff, and construction workers at risk of being “replaced by cyborgs.”

Of all the enhancement procedures discussed here, the fitting of exoskeletons is the one most commonly in use today. Indeed, for many it might appear to be the safest and most likely to be adopted by the medical profession without serious concerns about the potential side effects or procedural risks.

Endoskeletons

The goal here is to help humans become stronger and fitter from the inside out, but without most of the requirement for exercise and healthy eating. Physical and genetic enhancements applied to bones and muscles would improve body mass index (BMI) and performance from the outset. Reinforced bones would improve tone and strength with no extra work needed.

Surgical attachments to the spinal cord are nothing new, but the materials involved in the enhanced endoskeleton would be nothing like those used in the past. In the future, spinal cords could be fitted with dynamic, shape-shifting, responsive, and potentially 4D printed materials. The would provide a custom created backbone which is stronger, self-healing or “smart” in the sense that it can gather, transmit, and receive information.

Becoming surgically transformed into a cyborg may cross ethical and psychological boundaries similar to the intricacies recognized in the use of transgender operations and drug treatments. The rise of new identities and changed sense of self as a result of human enhancements may complicate the evolution of such “biohacking”, and require mandatory therapy or other psychological preparation for potential patients.

Cosmetic Gene Editing

The genome editing technology known as CRISPR/ CAS introduced in 2012 has already made it inexpensive and relatively easy to alter DNA sequences and alter gene functions inside the body. The CRISPR system’s ease of use means it could be used for almost any gene-editing technique. While doctors could apply the technology as a targeted cancer treatment, we could also see the same approach used for cosmetic augmentation. For example, high street centres could provide services to change clients’ hair thickness, eye colour, and skin pigmentation, making CRISPR treatments as common as other beauty and lifestyle options. Could we see regular beauty parlours and tattoo shops offering such services in the future?

In 2017, a doctor made headlines by using CRISPR to become the first human to modify his own DNA, with the goal of gaining superhuman strength by removing a protein that limits muscle growth. What are the implications for the future of health care when such life-changing genetic modifications could be obtained or even self-administered on a whim?

Memory Implants

In 2017, a research team from the University of Southern California used neural implants to boost test subjects’ short-term memory by 15-25%. The hope is that neural implants, possibly in the form of a “neural lace” lattice of tiny sensors under or just above the skull, could improve memory and may ultimately also prevent Alzheimer’s disease. This would make sense for elderly patients who’ve not yet started showing signs of dementia and be appealing to the radical age-extenders and transhumanists. However, the authenticity of memories could come into question in a future where memory implants exist.

4D Printed Skin

4D printed materials are essentially “shape shifting” in the sense that they can change their form and properties based on external stimuli. So, wetness might prompt rapid drying or absorption, heat would trigger a cooling effect, and so forth. In the future, enhancements such as a skinsuit, an active skin covering, or a surgical skin implant could give humans the ability to adapt to their environment seamlessly. Clothing may become unnecessary; form-fitting shape-shifting material could adapt to look like clothes, skin, or whatever the wearer selects. 4D printed skin might be viewed as an essential adaptation in extreme climates.

Surgeons would clearly need to learn a range of these new skin enhancement techniques. They might also be at the forefront of research and experimentation in developing these different printed skin solutions.

Organ Regeneration

The ability to regenerate human organs could end the ravages of disease, aging, and even injury. By 2030, organ modification and regeneration may be singled out as the signature body transformations being taken up by those pursuing life-extension. Being able to regrow diseased organs would also signal a victory in the fight against numerous chronic and terminal diseases like diabetes and pancreatic cancer.

Organ regeneration would imply tremendous ethical and scientific paradigm shifts for society. A key issue this raises for the profession is whether it would eliminate the need for surgical transplants. A concern might be a growing perception of organs as a consumer good. For example, what kind of regulations might need to be in place to govern the giving of organs as gifts? Furthermore, there is also the risk that such readily available solutions could actually enable irresponsible behaviour. For example, alcoholics and drug addicts might increase their level of bodily abuse because the situation can be reversed easily with organ regeneration.

Catching the Rainbow

Gene therapy has cured colour blindness in monkeys; if clinical trials are allowed, colour blind humans may be next. Eventually, science may expand our colour vision to include all wavelengths of light, from gamma rays and ultraviolet through to radio waves. Humans might literally see the world in a whole new light.

Today, smart contact lenses and eye implants, potentially with built-in cameras, are evolving as both consumer devices and medical devices that can potentially detect disease. Could genetic therapy or wearables eventually replace the surgeon’s role in healing optical disorders and vision defects?

Beyond Sound

As humans age, we naturally lose the ability to hear higher frequencies. In the future, we may be able to reverse this, or even enhance human hearing beyond the normal range via aural implants directly connected to our brains.

Brain implants are one of the more common enhancement strategies being pursued by researchers in the field, although their practical use may be at least a decade away. When and if it does become normal, the surgical enhancement of different senses (smell, sight, sound) might spawn new surgical specialties, similar to today’s cosmetic surgery specializations but focused on extending our natural abilities, not meeting beauty ideals

Reputation Sleeve

One’s online reputation may become a valuable form of currency in the future, for example, becoming a key selection criterion on job or credit applications. Tattoos or embedded objects could change, grow, morph, and otherwise shape-shift depending on one’s fluctuating online reputation score. A score might be comprised of the number of social media contacts, shares, likes, or uploads.

This type of enhancement might lend itself to DIY experimentation, in the same ways as computer chip inserts and other implants have been self-administered by so-called “body hackers” and “grinders” who are willing to take enhancement procedures into their own hands. These fringe activists are known for embedding chips into their skin in private and unregulated labs, where personalized body hacks can be obtained. The surgical profession might have special concerns over the safety and future growth of body hacking, particularly the potential to be called in to repair self-inflicted damages among DIY cyborgs.

3D Printed Wings

Imagine customized 3D printed wings, perfectly designed to bring aerodynamic freedom and flight to human beings. Could such vanity appendages eventually be attached surgically and removed by a home-visiting robo-surgeon or with a DIY kit? On the one hand, the administration of such cosmetic enhancements could be an important additional revenue stream for clinics, hospitals, and individual surgeons. On the other, emergency rooms could find themselves over run with the consequences of unsafe and unsupervised attempts at self-enhancement.

The divide between the supporters and opponents of human enhancement grows by the day – with a range of ethical, safety, moral, access, and religious issues being debated. From a surgical perspective, every one of the potential enhancements or biohacks described here could lead to reckless and ethically questionable activity. Ultimately, medical professionals may have a significant say in defining the boundaries of safe and acceptable procedures to ensuring that human enhancement doesn’t become a future form of societal self-harm.

Image: https://pixabay.com/photos/book-landscape-nature-wind-weather-2929646/

By Rohit Talwar

The world is experiencing an unprecedented rate of technologically-driven disruption – adding weight to the proposition that humanity will see more change in the next 20 to 25 years than the last 200. Although a critical driver, it is important to realise that exponential science and technology developments (e.g. Internet of Things, Big Data, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics) exist within the context of other disruptive drivers:

• A shift from physical to digital mindsets
• Linear versus exponential business thinking
• Human versus machine
• Potential for major shifts in employment patterns
• Financial stress driving new economic thinking
• Migration from central control to distributed – e.g. digital currencies, Blockchain, and cryptocontracts
• New industries emerging
• Desire for trust and transparency
• Social structures and political governance models at a crossroads.

While technological change is a constant factor across all these drivers, let’s home in on how exponential technology development could impact the future of business and work.

Research into the future of work

There have been several studies into the possible impact of automation – mostly through AI and robotics – on jobs and employment. There are a range of perspectives, but looking across the studies, the broad consensus is that something significant will happen – and arguably is already happening – to the jobs market. We can see evidence now that many jobs – or task components within jobs – will be automated. The questions are, which jobs? What proportion of existing jobs? What and how many new jobs will new economic activity create? The choice we have as a society is to take action now to prepare the ground work for a range of different responses, to prepare for a complex and uncertain future world of work, or to do nothing and face increasing complexity and potentially a widening wealth / poverty gap that could have grave consequences for the fabric of our society.

We would like to highlight the different range of perspectives on the potential job impacts arising from four significant studies:

1. Pew Research (2014) – AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs

This posed the question, ‘Will networked, automated, AI, and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?’

48% of respondents said robots and digital agents will displace significant numbers of blue- and white-collar workers – anticipating this could lead to increased income inequality, significant numbers of unemployable people, and breakdowns in social order. However, 52% argued the reverse – with the assumption that lost jobs will be more than offset by our ingenuity to create new occupations and industries. While a more optimistic scenario, the caveat is that current social structures (e.g. education) are not preparing people for the skills needed in the future job market.

While we don’t have space to explore the answers here, the study also examined key societal issues – e.g. could automation provide the opportunity for humanity to reassess society’s relationship to employment? Could it give people time for leisure, self-improvement, or to spend time with loved ones?

2. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report (2016) – Artificial intelligence: The impact on jobs – Automation and anxiety (referring a to 2013 study on the Future of Employment by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School).

This MGI report cited the 2013 Oxford Martin study – which identified that 47% of workers in USA had jobs at high risk of potential automation and suggesting the key sectors likely to be impacted included transport and logistics (taxi and delivery drivers); sales and services (cashiers, counter and rental clerks, telemarketers and accountants); and office support functions (receptionists and security guards). The equivalent ratios in the UK and Japan were 35% and 49% of the workforce, respectively. Complex services and creativity represent significant components of UK economic activity for example, and are thought to be more resilient in the face of increasing automation.

3. McKinsey Global Institute briefing note – Fortune Vatican Forum (2016) Technology, Jobs, and the Future of Work

MGI considered 2,000+ work activities across 54 countries representing 95% of global GDP. Their more optimistic scenario suggested less than 5% of jobs can be fully automated by adapting currently demonstrated technology, although for middle-skill categories it could rise to 20%. MGI estimated that at least 30% activities across 60% of all jobs are automatable based on current technologies.

Automation technologies were predicted to affect up to 49% of the global economy – 1.1 billion employees and $12.7 trillion in wages. China, India, Japan, and the USA account for more than half of these totals. This research suggested it would be two decades at least, before automation reaches 50% of all of today’s work activities.

4. World Economic Forum (2016) – The Future of Jobs, Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

This research examines an increasingly dynamic jobs landscape. The headline finding is that 65% of children entering primary school today will work in job types that don’t yet exist. Here the estimate is that 3.5 time as many jobs will be lost to disruptive labour market changes by the turn of the decade than are created.

The study anticipates losses in routine white-collar office functions, and gains in computing, mathematics, architecture, and engineering. Related fields and functions expected to become critically important by 2020 include: data analysts (leveraging big data and AI); specialized sales representatives (commercializing and articulating new business propositions); and senior management and leadership (to steer companies through upcoming change and disruption).

The research points to a re-balancing in skills requirements. Social skills — such as persuasion, emotional intelligence, and teaching others—will be in higher demand across industries than narrow technical skills, such as programming or equipment operation and control.

Exponential businesses

Based on Moore’s Law (which suggests that the amount of computer power we can buy for $1000 doubles every two years), we like to consider how similar thinking can create exponential organisations.

These organisations develop their thinking and new business propositions rapidly and seek to disrupt the markets they operate in. They are asking if technology can radically change what they do, what else they can change to solve problems faster, and reframing the way they think about problems, solutions, and opportunities. They are changing the personality of their organisation, posing the question, ‘Should we play by the rules of the game or change the game?’ Staying still – taking no action – is normally tantamount to going backwards. Classic examples would include simple changes like parallel loading bays allowing multiple people to pass through airline security in parallel, through to game changing disruptors such Broad Group in China erecting 57 story buildings in just 19 days, Local Motors – 3D printed cars designed at one thousandth of the cost of traditional manufacturers, and Airbnb handling 80 timers more bedrooms per employee than they typical hotel group.

Future Skills and Leadership Challenges

Clearly there’s a challenge here. Many of us like to work in a world that is calm, stable, and predictable – but the new reality is very different. The world is changing ever faster, so we need to become proficient at working with uncertainty, with complexity, in a world where change is increasingly rapid, where solutions are unclear and even the issue is not well defined. We are heading into a world of wicked problems that will require ‘Extraordinary Leadership’ rather than ‘Ordinary Management.’

The leadership and management style required when working in uncertain situations can be challenging. For Ordinary Management, we apply accepted best practice approaches; it’s the domain of tame problems and technical challenges. But for the increasingly disruption filled world we are heading into, we require Extraordinary Leadership where issues are difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. In this realm, a new skill set will be critical, including:

• Foresight
• Curiosity
• Sense making
• Accelerated learning
• Tolerance of uncertainty
• Scenario thinking
• Coping with complexity
• Social awareness
• Mentoring.

Questions for Leaders

• So our questions for IT leaders – and leaders across the organisation – are:
• What is it that the customer values in their interaction with your business; the products and services you offer?
• What are the issues for your business in serving current customers in existing markets, existing customers in new markets, new customers in existing markets, and new customers in new markets?
• Automation is often targeted at operational efficiency, but what are the critical technologies that could help the business deliver against rapidly evolving customer value expectations?
• What are the implications of the choices you might make on your business model? Do you want to play by the rules of the existing game, or create a new game?
• How will companies balance the need for efficiency through automation and their social responsibility as an employer?
• How will your leadership help to take your colleagues with you, especially through a period of exponential change?

Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/science-fiction-sci-fi-future-751758/

By Rohit Talwar

Over the next few years, the internet gaming business could be transformed completely as artificial intelligence (AI) enters the scene. At its core, AI is a type software or hardware that learns—and it could be programmed to learn mostly about us, its users and those insights could drive the developments of new, hyper-personalised gaming and internet betting experiences. The technology is being applied to learn our habits, our likes, and our relationship patterns. Just as Netflix uses an algorithm to suggest films you might watch, the concept of personalisation is extending to the idea of “Lifestyle AI” applications that could help choose your entertainment, gaming choices, wardrobe, your next meal, your job, and romantic partner. Take this one natural step further, and we enter the domain of mass tailoring of gaming and betting experiences.

While it all sounds a bit like science fiction, the capabilities of AI tools and the range of applications are growing exponentially. Indeed, by 2020 AI could be present in some form in everything we do, and by 2030, AI is likely to have infiltrated our lives in much the same way as smartphones, the internet, and global travel are now taken for granted. So how might AI change our recreational habits and day-to-day existence in a way that might affect e-gaming? Here are ten novel ways internet betting could be different in future as a result of AI.

1. Trend Betting – Individuals could bet on the word, phrase, issue, or concept that will be mentioned most across a range of sites on the web during a fixed period, and then AI web crawlers would determine the actual count. Machine learning would be used to profile these trends and patterns over time, predict the likelihood and frequency of occurrence of key terms, and then determine the odds accordingly. Users could volunteer their own terms alongside those which the gambling sites suggest. To determine the initial odds for new terms, machine learning would compare the new term to others it has already analysed, and search the internet to see how frequently it is mentioned. The algorithm would then set the initial odds and refine them over time in response to actual betting patterns and payouts.

2. Campaign Betting – Companies could hedge the costs of their marketing campaigns by betting on their success. Machine learning algorithms could evaluate a campaign, compare keywords and phrases in the material against past campaigns, and then determine the odds accordingly. The company placing the wager could then bet on achieving or not achieving a certain target number of hits.

3. Next Generation Sports Betting – A combination of wearables and implantables tracking vital signs could be worn by sportspeople. Bets could then be placed on the aggregate performance of a team in a game—average heart rate, total calorie consumption, median oxygen intake, etc. The AI system would crunch the numbers in real time and generate minute by minute predictions of the likely outcomes for the rest of the event. Gamblers would be able to jump in at any time to bet on the likely outcome. The odds would be generated by applying machine learning algorithms to analyse the vast amounts of data generated from previous games.

4. Betting on Your Life – With AI, any scenario could turn into a betting opportunity. What are the chances that you would run into a friend at the grocery store? Find a lucky penny? Get a call from your parents? Enjoy your date? Go and see a movie? Be fired by your boss tomorrow? In a form of crowdsourced betting system, if you find enough people to bet on your life events then you could give it a go. Even individuals’ lives could be ranked according to their predictability or spontaneity. The algorithm would do a detailed comparison of your social media profiles and other web postings and data against its databank to determine the odds and change them dynamically as the bets roll in.

5. From Fantasy Sports to Fantasy Governments – Teams of politicians could be created and wagers could be based on the balance of hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly media coverage received. The AI would collect input data continuously from social media, official agencies, and media outlets. The algorithm would weight and add up positive and negative comments and then determine the overall balance of sentiment for each politician. The rules might include restrictions on the number of politicians from each continent to be included in the global-scale game. Similar wagers could be allowed at national, state, or local level depending on the version of the game that’s selected. As governments become more transparent, this segment could also include betting on weekly performance of each member of the political team. A side effect could be that governments start to choose key officers based on their media scores and the returns to those who bet on them.

6. Beat the Bookies – With the analytical capability of AI, an independently developed ‘Beat the Bookie’ app could look at all the variables associated with a sports event. The app might factor in player performance statistics, player behaviour information, weather, previous fixtures, key match events, and create a ‘best bet’ opportunity for the gambler from across all available betting sites. An interesting question arises over how long it would be before the bookmakers develop a counter to the app or a more sophisticated basis for gambling.

7. Betting on Robot Sports– First there was Robot Wars, but now we can gamble on robot team sports uch as the Robot World Cup. In addition to the usual team sports, robots also take part in a revitalised Krypton Factor including physical strength and dexterity and intelligence tests. Rules have had to be adjusted across a number of sports and activities. They have to take account of the fact that the AI brains of participating robots have very quickly developed new tactics and approaches to win the game.

8. Match Fixing Fixer – This would see the use of AI to analyse match outcomes against an historical dataset of matches, outcomes, weather conditions, fitness levels, the past form of the participants, and the betting patterns for those events. This would help monitor a range of different team and individual sporting events to help ensure the validity of the competition and determine anomalous results that could be the subject of match fixing. could help. Not only will this enforce the fairness of the gamble, but it could also help ensure the integrity of sporting competition and endeavour.

9. Predictive Analytics-Free Sites – If AI could analyse and process all the data available on sports and other betting events, what would be the point of gambling? Services without the input of AI that rely only upon human knowledge and experience would be a new segment to capitalize on. Just like hunting purists fall back to semi-automatic guns to keep it ‘fair’ and challenging, some gamblers might like to keep games free of AI capabilities.

10. Gambling Problem Detection – Artificial intelligence could prevent users from developing a gambling problem by restricting the amount of time dedicated to this activity. Smart health trackers would disable betting applications and opportunities across all their devices, so the user couldn’t see or access them. If this feature is turned off by the user, AI could alert friends and family when the user is surpassing their recommended limits.

Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/science-fiction-fantasy-futuristic-1758381/

By Rohit Talwar

The technological revolutions of the past – steam based mechanisation, electronics, information technology – are being surpassed by a new fourth era of transformation enabled by smart machines. Think about how much light bulbs, computers and mobile phones have transformed the work of sales professionals. Now imagine that same dramatic shift forward, but on steroids. The light bulb switches on and off intuitively based on your movements, saving energy; and the PC anticipates your schedule and answers emails for you, for example. How businesses respond to the challenges and exploit the benefits of smart technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key determinant of success going forward.

We are singling out AI as perhaps the most disruptive technology fuelling this radical transformation. Artificial intelligence is the rapidly growing field of computer science focused on creating intelligent software tools that can replicate critical human mental faculties. The range of applications include speech recognition, language translation, visual perception, learning, reasoning, inference, planning, decision-making, and intuition. For sales professionals, there are numerous opportunities and risks associated with the AI revolution. The quality of leadership will be the best determinant of how much help or harm AI does for a business.

Where do we see AI going for the sales profession the next five years?

The power of AI to gather massive amounts of data, analyse, interpret, draw inferences, and make predictions has applications in every industry sector and activity. For sales, this means a new power tool and new leadership priorities.

So, what do sales leaders need to understand and pay attention to as their organisation embarks on the AI journey?

• Deep and Narrow AI.  AI opens up huge potential to go deep and apply AI across the sales function – handling or supporting every activity – through to narrow applications – such as doing in-depth analysis of customer data to predict likely future behaviour. Sales leaders will need to address key questions here such as does it make sense to automate outbound sales calls and inbound customer enquiries with chatbots, or to use AI assistance to improve the capacity of human salespeople? Many firms are now using their best sales staff to train these AI tools to do routine sales work – freeing up the sales experts to focus on more demanding and complex customer opportunities. Leaders will need close familiarity with staff and customers alike to know the extent to which AI could enhance sales operations. Close contact with the cultures and communities being served will help determine when to use AI or humans. Sales positions could morph into roles more similar to behavioural scientists in the sense that they’d be looking for valuable patterns that data analysis fails to detect.
• Hierarchies Disrupted. While the IT department should be highly involved in adoption of AI across the business, there are strategic decisions which will involve input from numerous departments. The increasingly technological direction of business and sales means that everyone in sales needs to be kept up to date with the latest tools, so investment in training will be paramount. In some cases, the customer and the salesperson may need to work together to train the AI how to interact effectively. Teams might have to orient their new robotic co-worker to their voices, movement and preferences. Because of its smart nature and ability to learn, AI is a surprisingly relational technology—its abilities will depend on what people teach it.
• A Very Human Workplace. The growing impact of technology in sales for potentially every business will require the right mix of people and AI. Sensitivity to roles being encroached by AI means leaders helping workers see the technology as a tool, not a threat. Where there is the potential for replacement then honesty and support are required for those who might lose their job to AI. Encouragement of personal growth on the job is going to be critical to good management.
• New Skill Sets. Customers are being acclimated to the constant analysis of their own data to sell them things. Being able to analyse freely available information based on social media profiles, for instance, means that sales people may no longer size up a lead but that AI does. Sales in the age of AI means understanding the customer in new ways, which may go beyond superficial online activities to assessing their lifestyle and social media profile. Salespeople may be confidants and therapists for future customers, helping them reveal needs they didn’t even realize they had.
• Striking a Fine Balance. Careful decisions about which sales roles and functions to automate should guide AI strategy in business—a simple “bottom line” approach will compromise the human element and could erode the firm’s uniqueness over time. It will also be important to show compassion and support to employees displaced by new technology as well as support healthy relationships in workplaces populated by both man/woman and machine.

The Leadership Challenge

Overall there is a good deal of promise that AI tools will play a leading role in the future of sales in business. The challenge is for sales leaders to play more than a supporting role. By this we mean, don’t walk in blindly—it is easy to get wrapped up in the AI hype and neglect its pitfalls. The biggest pitfall to avoid is allowing technology to set the pace and neglect the human element. Counterintuitively, we propose that relationships will matter more, not less as we cede more business workings to AI. Sales, a people profession, will be on the front lines of this leadership challenge.

Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/machine-mechanical-eye-blue-look-1776925/