The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: The Administrative Assistant of 2025

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, April Koury, Alexandra Whittington, Maria Romero, and Karolina Dolatowska
Are Administrative/Executive Assistants (EA)/Personal Assistants (PA) already living in the future as new technology hits the workplace?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most disruptive technologies affecting today’s business environment. Explosive developments, funding and support for increasing the role of AI in all sectors, and across all job roles seem to be a key driver of the future of business. The impact of AI over the next decade is expected to completely transform the landscape, and no industry, or job, will be left untouched.

Jobs are among the chief concerns whenever the topic of AI is mentioned. Most people have by now heard that “robots are coming” for jobs, and that mass unemployment is “inevitable” in our collective future. But, some jobs could be transformed for the better with the rise of smart technologies making routine work easier, allowing people to focus on the job elements that they can really add value to. For that reason, we suggest that the Administrative/Executive Assistant (EA)/Personal Assistant (PA) of 2025 will not be replaced by technology, but rather, enhanced by it.

In many ways, the future is already here. Though the Admins/EAs/PAs are indeed job roles which are already being affected by AI, there is ample evidence to show that the future outlook is actually quite good as a benefit of smart technology.

With that said, it is impossible to know for sure which jobs will be eliminated within the next 10 years. However, given the quickly changing technological conditions, and with AI evolving every single day, it seems that if the Admins/EAs/PAs role remains on the job market in 2025, AI will change it significantly, and for the better.

Even more exciting, it is possible that AI will create more occasions in Admin/EA and PA work where the requirement to demonstrate uniquely human skills and capabilities will be emphasised over technology. All this points to a potentially exciting transformation for the Admin/EA/PA role.

The Past

Artificial intelligence has already radically changed the role of the Admins/EAs/PAs over the last 10 years. The changes have been even more significant than the introduction of personal computers and the smartphone combined, but possibly less obvious. A close look at the sort of things the admin job holder used to do exclusively, like typing memos and letters, scheduling meetings, booking travel, and making reservations shows that AI has already replaced nearly all of those tasks.

The Present

The responsibilities which Admins/EAs/PAs are likely to perform include acting as a first point of contact, dealing with correspondence and phone calls, managing diaries and organising meetings and appointments. At times the job can even involve controlling access to a manager or executive. Another key area includes booking and arranging travel, transport and accommodation.

Already, several applications and systems exist which can take over some of those tasks. For example, x.ai personal assistant can help schedule meetings. Voice recognition typing software can be used to send messages without Admins/EAs/PAs involvement. Voice recognition has replaced the need to type just about anything; an AI not only records the words spoken, but also optimises grammar and any emphasis required. It also translates any message into an alternative language, in real time if required.

The Future: The Admin/EA/PA of 2025

Yes, AI personal assistants will likely take on the more routine tasks away from human executive assistants—in fact, this is already transpiring. However, in the future, admin jobs filled by human workers shall not be completely erased: Humans will be available, but at a premium. Such admin positions would require more specialized training where people skills, insightful knowledge in specific domains and counselling would meet. The employees in these roles might also need to efficiently interact with AIs and augmented humans, which is a new skill that many people would have to learn in any job in 2025.

Gaining a better understanding for data is another area where Admins/EAs/PAs may have to adapt to the role of AI in their jobs. For example, seamless data flows will allow AI tools to access the diaries of multiple colleagues and perfectly schedule meetings, freeing the employee to focus on more important, human-centric tasks like personally following up with important clients. It may be important to increase the understanding of data analytics among some Admins/EAs/PAs to know when to apply a human touch. Technical knowledge to complete most tasks may become unnecessary, but a clear understanding of the limitations and capabilities of big data might give some workers an edge. Furthermore, programming skills (at least a fundamental understanding) could give some in the role the advantaged ability to customize how the data gets crunched, personalising the benefits of technology to their client or projects.

As an example of how to use AI to enhance the human element at work, imagine a specialized meeting planning algorithm that uses basic information about a meeting (attendees, venue options, timing, and catering requirements). An AI-powered digital assistant could access the required attendees’ diaries and public personal data, resolve any conflicts, make the room reservation, and automatically order the appropriate catering. In this scenario, the detailed leg work being done by AI should help avoid any mistakes or errors on the financial and logistical side, while a human employee overseeing the entire process would be there to provide a personal touch as needed. It is even possible that algorithmically-curated seating arrangements designed to avoid personality clashes among meeting attendees, based on insights drawn by trawling participants’ social media accounts could become common place.

AI is evolving so quickly that, within a few years, there could be similar applications which book the travel and hotels for executives intuitively. Within ten years a digital assistant could do everything to meet travel and hotel preferences of the executive including airline, flight times, departure and arrival airport, transfers, hotel chain. All while maximising traveller reward schemes during the reservation and payment. All that would be needed to do is for a admin to determine when, where and for how long the business executive would like to travel and input all requirements to one device (like Alexa or Google smart). The smart AI assistant would find the best option available for the price. Passport details and payment would be already saved in the system. Once the AI generated a list of available options, arrangements would be approved by a human assistant, then AI could make the booking. Rather than perform rote tasks in this future, Admins/EAs/PAs are the conduit for AI that can intuitively anticipate needs and maximise benefits/minimise cost and inconvenience. The objective for admins in this future is not to make travel arrangements, but to make sure there’s a world-life and human-machine balance.

Another change we may see is development of careers within one single industry, as it becomes key for Admins/EAs/PAs to know the business inside out. So, there might be a job opening for “finance PA” or one that works exclusively with food industry executives. Specialization to the industry would be a by-product of the fact that people in the role place increasing emphasis on relationships. If most routine information is being handled by AI, the future of work in these jobs is really about people skills. Also, specialized knowledge and experience could be highly valued, perhaps ensuring abundant job offers that revolve around one field.

Another twist in the future of admin jobs could be that Admins/EAs/PAs work on call and become paid for specific tasks. Temporary workers or fill-ins on the job could use AI to access or “upload” the knowledge base and even institutional memory and history about what they need to know to cover for a specific person, say in the case of maternity leave. This line of developments follows the trends toward the sharing economy and taskification, embodied by Uber, AirBnB and Task Rabbit—disruptors whose time has come (and possibly gone), although their imprint on future business models may linger. Admins/EAs/PAs may experience better job prospects in the gig economy, although work stability would be an issue. It is possible that Admin/EA/PA work would become a “side job” in the face of massive unemployment cuts, similar to the Uber driver or task worker.

One wider social trend driving the future of Admins/EAs/PAs employment is that the job market and people’s perception of the work environment has changed massively in past years. Telecommuting numbers keep rising: every year more directors and managers prefer to work at home or remotely than commute to crowded offices. Assuming this trend continues to grow over the next 10 years, would more people working remotely in the future reduce number of admins needed in the workforce? Or increase the potential for admin employment due to flexibility and possibly taking on multiple clients, projects and roles? There may be good potential for entrepreneurially-minded entrants to Admin/EA/PA work, which may serve as a form of insurance in terms of employment instability wrought by artificial intelligence, maybe using AI to help deliver effective and human contract admin support to executives in the form of a company with sector-experienced PAs offered to client companies on a fee per task basis.

Conclusion

The dominant trajectory for the future is where technology continues to undertake the more transactional type of work, and the future Admin/EA/PA is the executive’s relationship manager. In this future, the same way that many products and services have been commoditised and the premium value is in human to human relationships, the admin is focusing on relationships both inside and outside the organisation.

Today’s PA is already at a point where he or she has become fully representative of the executive’s brand and the organisation’s reputation. The skill set required by the job seems remarkably similar to that required by today’s successful executives. Listening, reasoning, collaborating, working in complex and uncertain situations, and empathy are critically important as Admins/EAs/PAs work to provide a more sophisticated type of support to the executive. PAs are no longer co-ordinators of a small compartment of business activities, but a relationship builder, a relationship developer and a partner to the executive. Ironically, the interpersonal skills required of people in these roles are becoming more essential as the job duties themselves are alleviated by technology tools. Tapping into the human element on the job will be what sets the Admin/EA/PA of the future apart from its AI rivals.

 

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Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4530415/ by geralt

Here come the robots: intelligent machines could take, make, or reboot software testing and security jobs

By Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, Alexandra Whittington, and Maria Romero
As artificial intelligence (AI) revolutionises work as we know it, how will the software testing and security industry be impacted?

The robots are coming: “Lock up your knowledge and protect your job at all costs!” The apocalyptic warnings are starting to flow of how artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics combined with other disruptive technologies could eliminate the need for humans in the workplace. Equally sceptical voices are rubbishing the idea that anything drastic will happen, citing previous industrial revolutions as proof that new jobs will emerge to fill any gaps created by the automation of existing ones. In practice, no one really knows how quickly AI might eliminate jobs or what the employment needs will be of the future businesses and industries that have not yet been born.

But the future is not black and white. Aside from the potential to take (and make) jobs, AI might also transform jobs. Below, we share a list of some critical job roles that could be transformed or eliminated completely by the use of AI and robotics over the period from 2020 to 2030. The automation of the following six jobs would bring new opportunities to the software testing world, but could also change it in other possibly in unexpected ways.

Below we elaborate about how the role of AI in reshaping work could reverberate into the IT, software, and computer security sector of the future.

1. Doctors/Surgeons – Fully autonomous and remote controlled robotic surgeons will diagnose, treat, and operate on patients in areas where there are no physical human medics available. Humans might monitor or control these robo-docs via video from central hub hospital facilities in bigger towns and cities. As a public good, the sanctity of software and computer systems upon which medical AI is based cannot be emphasised enough. Should doctors truly be replaced by Dr. Watson, AI of IBM fame, technology would literally wield power over life-or-death situations. Aside from protection from hackers, there may be special preparation companies would take to support employees working with medical tech, similar to how medical school trains doctors to deal with grave situations.

2. Policing – Robots could perform tasks like crowd control, and police drones could track and intercept criminals escaping from crime scenes. In a future where policing is automated, IT support would be a critical public service. Would the staff running the software support be considered peace officers? What other authority might be given to tech staff should their work coincide so closely with law enforcement? Helping municipalities secure a Robocop could become reality for software testers by 2030. Automated policing would put technology at the forefront of criminal justice and community safety—how is the industry preparing for growing responsibilities to the public sector?

3. Lawyers – A range of search, analysis, and contract drafting tasks are already being automated. Robot-lawyers are already overturning parking tickets in the UK and US. Additionally, smart policing devices and an expanding blanket of sensors will feed into AI judges where there would be little to no room for debate. Moral and ethical issues related to technology advances may become the next legal growth arena. As law becomes increasingly automated, software and security has gained emphasis in the law firm as well as in the public safety arena. Legal tech is likely to continue to grow as a subsector of law as well as IT.

4. Life Coaches/Therapists – Automation forecasts today are already causing anxiety and stress among perfectly healthy professionals. Should mass layoffs start, society could see mental health issues rise to crisis level. There are already strong provisions in place in most modern societies to protect medical information online. It may be possible that software and security experts will have requests in the future for new products and services to protect personal coaching and psychotherapy data from sessions conducted online. Also, with the continuous existential threat in terms of terrorist use of cyberattacks, anxiety solutions might be one of the future niches software vendors could fill.

5. Drivers/Mechanics – From taxis to buses, trucks and rescue services, automated vehicles hold the promise of being inherently safer, more fuel efficient, and productive—freeing up drivers’ time. As a vehicle becomes a digitally immersed experience for the passenger, software and IT is critical to its smooth functioning and enjoyment. By 2030, hacking could be a bigger threat to personal mobility than engine problems. Certainly more so than running out of fuel!

6. Personal Assistants (PAs) – Future generations of Siri, Cortana, and Alexa should be able to undertake personal shopping, screen incoming calls, and determine which news to show us, even determine where we dine. To be able to instill full trust in the personal services provided by AI, consumers will require robust computer security and software. Unless there is a strong basis for protecting private data, personal assistant AIs won’t overtake real-life, flesh-and-blood PAs. However, if the market presents a demand for PA services for the masses, writing the software and securing such systems could be a lucrative area in which to establish an early presence.

In addition to this list, there are a number of ways computer security firms and vendors could evolve in response to the growing use of AI in other professions. Ultimately, today’s business leaders in every sector acknowledge that the robots are coming; it is just that we don’t know where they may have their biggest impacts.

 

  • How could AI reshape the tools for software security and testing?
  • Does AI pose a replacement risk or enhance the software professional’s job?
  • Does the role of AI in software improve the product development cycle? How would it impact jobs?

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Exploring the Future of Meetings and Events

Rohit Talwar shared his views on the forces facing the events sector in the coming years.
1. What, in your opinion, will be the top three most disruptive technologies, and how might these impact the events industry?

Artificial Intelligence. We will see far more use of artificial intelligence (AI) across a range of industries and applications will emerge in the meetings sector. The technology will help with things like trawling for popular topics and emerging issues for conference content, through to identifying and targeting potential attendees who fit the ideal candidate profile. We’ll see AI being used for customer service chatbots, and in performing detailed multi-parameter evaluations of bids from different possible locations and venues for an event. Within events, AI in meetings apps can help with better matchmaking between attendees, and in searching for and providing relevant content to presentations – and also fact checking claims made by speakers.

Immersive Technologies. We’ll see far great use of technologies that enhance the multi-sensory immersive experience at events. We have grown used to seeing fun and engaging demonstrations with augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) in the exhibition area. In the near future, we’ll see entire workshop sessions or even plenaries where the technology is used to create a more immersive experience for some or part of the session. The aim will be to shift meetings and conferences from events where delegates are “spoken at” to more participative and engaging experiences that allow delegates to go deeper into the exploration of a scenario or issue.

Internet of Things. Growing use will be made of sensors, cameras, and tracking devices to monitor flows around an event and to provide deeper information to exhibitors about the visitors to their stands and what they spent time looking at. Effectively, we’ll see an Internet of Things (IoT) emerging within events – with lots of questions about the extent to which people are willing to be tracked and the rewards they will receive for agreeing to such monitoring.

2. How can the events industry help shape or influence this future?

We see an accelerating pace of disruption, increasing complexity, and growing uncertainty to be at the root of many issues that businesses and organisations are addressing today and will continue to face in the emerging future. Events remain one of the most universally powerful ways of helping people learn about these changes, hear how others are responding, and explore the implications with their peers.

Exponential technology developments and the resulting disruptions they cause will create new challenges and opportunities for innovative business solutions. There will be tremendous potential benefits to be gained by those events that can tap into these drivers of disruption, provide choice and personalization for how and when delegates can participate, and help people make sense of the resulting skills challenges and opportunities for their sector. As wicked problems become the norm, and tame problems the exception, events need to think about how they are adapting their design to help participants understand the challenges and craft well-thought out solutions.

With a growing array of event options and online alternatives, proving the value and relevance of our events will never have been more important. Increasingly, organizations are beginning to grasp that the future may look very different to the present, hence the growing interest in “future proofing”. This in turn is driving event owners to ensure they have genuinely forward-looking content and experiences that challenge participants, stretch their thinking, and open the door to new possibilities.

3. Do you see the changes ahead as positive or negative for the events industry?

Almost every change on the horizon can be viewed from either a negative or a positive perspective. For example, on the one hand, confusion over Brexit may lead some organizations to postpone meeting plans while staff focus on the practicalities of the UK decoupling from the European Union. However, there will also be a massive growth in events focused on helping different sectors make sense of Brexit and determine the actions to take. The challenge is to have forward thinking people in the business who are looking at the issues on the horizon, and determining the potential impacts and opportunities that could arise – acting pre-emptively to create solutions rather responding to a crisis or rushing to respond to an opportunity when they emerge.

4. How should we shift our mindset and leadership style in order to compete in this emerging future?

The first step is make sure that everyone is encouraged to be looking at the broader changes taking place or emerging today across society to understand what they might mean for the meetings sector. The next is to allocate some dedicated time to explore the longer term future. This means, for example, looking at the meeting needs and expectations of emerging generations. This also means looking at how the exponential technology developments we are already starting to see could impact our sector and society over the coming 5, 10, 15, or 20 years. As an increasingly critical component of leading in a time of increasing disruption, futures thinking can play a critical role in helping leaders and their organizations come to terms with the nature of a rapidly evolving world.

5. How can we harness this technology to our advantage in order to ensure a very human future?

In some sectors, there is a clear expectation that technology will automate roles and jobs and replace people – this may not be so apparent ion the events sector. In a highly service oriented sector such as meetings and events, technologies such as AI will provide power tools to help in the design, marketing, and management of events. This should hopefully free up staff time for customer facing activities. The success of the sector depends on the quality of service combined with the capacity to understand and respond to the meeting and event needs of the marketplace. This requires human relationships, research, quality dialogues, and time invested to create the best possible event design – all of which suggest a very human future for the sector.

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Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-2826093/ by Steffanyffneger

Driving Online Sales Growth for your Dealership

By Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, April Koury, and Alexandra Whittington

Most dealers do not need convincing that online sales are the future. They see the potential to reach bigger audiences and generate exponential sales growth. But it all seems so damn complex. How can dealers succeed online when it appears to be changing by the day? What do we need to do tomorrow? How much should we be spending? What if we get it wrong? Everyone wants answers to the same questions. Here we explore practical tactics for those who sense the opportunity and are willing to invest time and money in pursuit of the prize.

The winners in the online world have embraced the opportunity and developed a “digital mindset”. They continue to evolve this mindset in line with new thinking about how to use the internet as a sales channel. As a result, they are delivering exponential growth in online performance. Others, more ambitiously, are starting with the goal of developing businesses that can create a billion or more customers using the power of the mobile internet. So, whatever your ambitions for your business how do you move forward? Below we outline four elements of help you develop your next steps business plan.

1. Learning What Works

You can’t delegate your own mindset change. You have to invest time reading and networking to learn about what others are doing online. Don’t be afraid to ask basic questions – they can provide very powerful insights. Our top three questions would be:

  • Results – Establish that there’s value to be gained. What proportion of revenues come from online sales, how has that changed since they started selling online, how long did it take to generate meaningful online sales, how much comes from mobile, how does profitability compare to other sales approaches, what have they spent on creating and running their online offering, what are their online targets going forward?
  • Actions – Understand how they got here. How did they start, what are they doing today, what tactics worked and which were abandoned, what external support did they use, how did / do they raise awareness and drive people to their site, what does their ‘conversion’ process look like from interest to purchase, what would they do differently if starting again, and what do the plan to do next?
  • Management – How do they manage online sales. Who’s in charge, how many resources do they have involved, how do they deal with conflicts between the online and physical sales teams, how’s that changed over time, and what’s next?

Next Steps – For dealerships, the key is to get staff and contributors helping you to identify good ideas for your online offering. Possibilities could include a survey amongst customers, staff, and their friends and families to identify the features they like best on other sites and what they’d want from the dealership site to help them. Another approach is encouraging the staff to do regular scanning of both automotive and sites and those of parallel industries. They should be seeking out ideas, trends, potential new financing solutions, and interesting headlines. These can then be shared on a regular basis in team meetings with colleagues to see what resonates and might then be experimented with on the dealership site. Larger players might want to hire external data analysis companies to examine consumer and web usage data to identify where and how best to promote the business to reach potential buyers. Other options include regular online competitions to attract new visitors, and providing targeted advice– e.g. financing and insurance guidance angled to younger buyers.

2. Think Mobile

People’s interactions with the online world are increasingly happening via their mobiles and the trend is likely to continue. Whether they are using apps or accessing the internet – they will be doing it on their devices and the functionality will get ever-smarter. If you know where things are likely to be going, you can bear that in mind when developing your online offering. So, many now start by designing their website and app to work on mobile devices first and then adapt it for the bigger screen. We can expect connectivity speeds to get faster – meaning we can share more video information about our products and services. Devices and apps will also get more intelligent – smart software will increasingly block unwanted ads and calls and screen incoming callers on behalf of the user. What are the critical messages that you want to convey to get you past these electronic guardians?

Next Steps – Dealers need to think about creating mobile ‘buzz’ around their cars and dealership – making it easy for people to share pictures of their cars and encouraging them to do it, and creating fun Facebook friendly and ‘tweetworthy’ activities within the dealership. For example – encouraging potential buyers to have the accompanying salesperson capture their test drives on Facebook Live. More innovative solutions might include providing mobile-friendly 360-degree interior and exterior camera shots of vehicles, catering for mobile payment options such as Apple pay, and accepting digital currencies such as bitcoin. A range of other options could include daily phone only offers, virtual viewing appointments, and a facility to customise your car on your phone.

3. From Research to Action

The key to success is willingness to experiment and try what’s worked for others. This means putting people on the web team that like learning, testing and refining ideas and who don’t mind dumping stuff that isn’t delivering. If step-change is your goal, then make sure you’ve researched companies who’ve done that. Then create a plan of actions that you want to try – from promotions and banner exchanges, to social media campaigns and low-cost sponsorships – have a 3-6 month schedule of what you want to try each week or month, monitor it, measure it, learn from it and refine the strategy. Be willing to adapt plans in the face of evidence from the actions you are taking.

Next Steps – Staff may be motivated to scan for interesting ideas and generate their own. The key is not to dampen their enthusiasm because they are not the “right” ideas. So, it is important to be clear and honest at the outset about what you are worried – e.g. damaging your reputation, irritating customers who see a lower price than the one they paid, or giving too much information away to your competition. The more you share of these concerns, the more your team can think about how to address them when seeking out and generating ideas.

4. Finding Customers – Look for What’s Hiding in Plain Sight

Look for opportunities to present yourself where potential customers are already. Airports, train stations, shopping centres, sporting events, festivals, markets, and other live events all have ready-made audiences. Taking pop-up stalls in these venues gives you an opportunity to try out a different way of meeting and engaging with potential customers and then encouraging them to provide you with their details so you can continue the relationship. I may love the locally made chocolates that I tasted from a pop-up stall in the local rail station, connecting online means I can keep buying the goodies even if I never see the stall again.

There are now countless examples of players who have gone from nothing to exponential growth by capturing customer interest in the online world. There are also many who’ve evolved from a physical presence to a purely online operation because of the efficiencies it can bring. Others have failed spectacularly to crack the online opportunity. The keys to success lie in constant learning, asking the right questions, recognising how the technology is evolving and planning accordingly, and deploying the right people. Success also requires us to be clear on our goals and concerns, and then adopting an iterative, experimental and constantly evolving approach both to what we actually do online and how we go about attracting potential customers.

Next Steps – The key here is putting the dealership where people are and then encouraging them to stay connected with you online until they are ready to buy. This might include taking cars to display at high footfall locations such as sporting events, concerts, trade shows for other sectors, country fairs and shopping malls. Another approach is to create your own events which might attract people in – for example a talk on the sharing economy, bringing people in to showroom to explain it, present your own sharing model, and helping to facilitate car sharing groups. Another option might be to show how 3D printing can help personalise your car – with evening demonstration events in the showroom and then allowing people to order customised 3D products – such as made to measure car seats for them or their kids. There are a range of car interest groups on platforms like Meetup – allowing them to meet in your showroom could increase brand loyalty and drive social media activity featuring your brand.

 

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A version of this article appeared in Sales Initiative.

 

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4457918/ by PrettySleepy2

Techno-social Futures

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, and Alexandra Whittington

A world of increasingly digital services and digitised existence opens up a growing set of societal concerns, expectations, and policy challenges. Here, we explore some of the latest developments and future implications of social technologies.

A new type of digitally-enabled non-state power is emerging with the ability to use our personal and social data to deliver highly personalised solutions. Furthermore, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to the vast amounts of big data being collected regarding our habits is enabling entities to track, predict, and influence our behaviour. Below are some of the ways that social technology delivers constant insights to eager public and private recipients of big data.

Face Recognition

Face recognition is a method of identifying or verifying the identity of an individual using their face matched to photos, video, or often in real-time. Some experts see faces as the ultimate single biometric identifier, with many experiments now underway to perfect the technology.

Location-Based Services

Location-based services (LBS) use real-time geo-data from a mobile device or smartphone to allow the targeting of specific information, entertainment, and ecommerce options to the individual consumer. LBS is one of the strategies of surveillance capitalism, which relies on the ability to monitor digital activity in order to market and sell products.

Continuous Intelligence

The expectation is that, given current rates of development in AI in particular, more than half of major new business systems will incorporate continuous intelligence. These will use real-time context data to provide more comprehensive situational awareness and thus help improve decisions but also suggest greater surveillance of individuals.

Public Mood Monitoring

Mood monitoring can be done with a variety of technologies, from mining the tweets exchanged in an urban area to looking at the micro-expressions on the faces of people as they are captured by security cameras. Such real time information could inform mood altering actions on a continuous basis.

Behavioural Revolution

An area of behavioural economics that is gaining importance is analysis of massive data collection to make predictions about the near-term collective future – from travel destination choices to the food we want to eat. The hope is that this will become a growing business resource for improving efficiencies, cutting costs, speeding up processes, and accelerating learning.

Polibots/Roboticians

Robot politicians, or polibots/roboticians could soon represent human citizens in digital democratic societies and policy-making might enter the early phases of automation. In 2018, a robot ran unsuccessfully for the role of mayor in Tama City, Japan. As life becomes increasingly digital, how far away are we from a robotic or AI world leader?

The Future of Social Tech

The trends listed here explore many of the underlying developments that could drive opportunity and increase public concerns about living in the digital era.

In the near-term, concerns will likely grow over surveillance capitalism – companies generating commercial value from our data without explicit permission to do so. The debate will rumble on over the regulatory and governance challenges and opportunities associated with political transparency, personal privacy, and individual freedoms in the information age. The regulatory choices made will spawn new information-protector businesses and could destroy existing data abusers.

In 20 years’ time, could notions such as anonymity and privacy be quaint historical concerns in a world where our lives are carried out in public 24/7 and under constant surveillance by those who govern and serve us? We expect the future of social tech will be interesting.

 

References :

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/21/china-ai-world-leader-by-2030.html
  2. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative/v
  3. https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1978396/chinas-one-belt-one-road-plan-covers-more-half-population-75
  4. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative
  5. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/chinas-overseas-investment-drops-for-the-first-time-on-record.html
  6. http://www.asiascot.com/news/2018/07/26/belt-road-initiative-reshaping-global-value-chain/
  7. https://www.unescap.org/blog/shifting-supply-chains-foreign-direct-investment-likely-to-expand-in-southeast-and-south-asia-in-response-to-trade-war A
  8. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
  9. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
  10. http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html
  11. https://www.travelagentcentral.com/running-your-business/unstoppable-rise-chinese-traveller-where-are-they-going-and-what-does-it-mean
  12. https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/Media/Default/landing-pages/cities/OE-cities-summary.pdf
  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kwv

 

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China and the Next Economy

By Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, and Alexandra Whittington

China has made amazing economic strides in the space of little more than a single generation. These dramatic improvements have set the bar quite high for the country’s future. Most notably, China’s pursuit of global AI leadership is unparalleled: the country has committed over US$400Bn to AI investments at the national, regional, and local level with the intention of building a US$1Tn AI industry by 2030.(1) In this article we ask, what other plans and proposals could shape China’s increasing economic influence?

Belt and Road Initiative

Comprising a ‘belt’ of overland corridors and a maritime ‘road’ of shipping lanes, a 30-year, US$10Tn+ project will drive infrastructure and economic development along its path through Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.(2) The project could ultimately touch 152 countries, 65% of the world’s population, and 40% of global GDP.(3) As part of the program of work, China is already carrying out or planning construction projects in more than 60 countries with an investment of more than $1Tn. Alongside the building of extensive infrastructure across the areas it covers, the intention is to enable a widespread process of financial inclusion. As well as supporting China’s global economic development, the initiative provides a vehicle for ever larger economic and political influence and a more pivotal role for Chinese international diplomacy.(4)

Overseas Acquisitions

Chinese overseas investment is now seen as a critical growth driver. Investment patterns are shifting, and official Chinese government figures show that overseas investment by Chinese businesses peaked at US$196.15Bn in 2016, declining to US$158.29 in 2017.(5) Full figures for 2018 are not available yet but indications show a continued decline with major reductions of investment into the USA and UK. This contrasts with significant growth of investment into nations such as Canada, Sweden, and Germany, and projects along the Belt and Road corridors.

Investment may continue to slow in the short term due to China’s domestic controls and restrictions on Chinese ownership by an increasing number of nations. However, in the longer term, the growth of China, its investment potential, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the appetite of Chinese investors could see a quadrupling of the acquisition of foreign companies by Chinese firms over the next two decades.

Expanding Global Value Chains

The growth of commerce and the expansion of cross-border trading links in Asia, and more latterly Africa, will be further strengthened by infrastructure enhancements – including those of China’s Belt and road Initiative, by government sectoral funding, and rising education and skill levels.(6) Other key enablers include favourable tariffs, rising domestic spending and foreign direct investment (FDI) from around the world, cheaper technology, lower transportation costs, and development of enabling services such as accounting, consulting, and banking.(7)

China’s Future

Estimates suggest we could see 130% cumulative global GDP growth between 2016 and 2050, much of which is expected to come from developing nations. Six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050, led by China.(8)

Continued development of international production and trade networks, the spread of investment, and a rising standard of living may stimulate future waves of prosperity, economic growth, and employment in China. These waves in turn may further strengthen China’s global influence for the foreseeable future.

Social Trends Forming the Future of China

The Chinese consumer is an attractive and lucrative target for many businesses. No wonder, as China is projected to have a 20% share of world GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) by 2050.(9) Any useful strategy in this area must incorporate an understanding of more than just the economic characteristics of the Chinese consumer. This article highlights some of the more interesting social trends and innovations transforming the Chinese consumer profile.

The Middle-Class

Based on current trends, 90% of the next billion entrants into the global middle class are projected be Asian (380m Indian, 350m Chinese, 210m other Asians) elevating the Asian middle class towards 65% of the global middle-class population by 2030.(10) This will impact international business flows and further increase the economic and geopolitical influence of Asia. China stands out as the major player in the region’s future in this regard.

Tourism

One by-product of the increasing disposable income in the region is the rise of Chinese tourism. Chinese tourists overseas spent $261.1bn in 2016 whereas Americans spent $123.6bn. Just 7% of Chinese citizens (99 million people) possess a passport, compared to around 40% of Americans, and 76% of Britons.(11) Therefore, the percentage of Chinese citizens with passports is likely to rise, enabling lucrative growth in Chinese outbound tourism.

Global Cities

Chinese cities will be at the heart of a radical shift eastwards of the urban centres of global economic gravity by 2030. Driven by burgeoning urban populations and rapid labour productivity growth, 17 Chinese cities are expected to rank in the world’s top 50 by 2030, which is more than North America and four times more than Europe. By 2030, China’s lesser-known mega cities such as Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Wuhan could become as prominent in economic terms as Dallas and Seoul are today.(12)

China’s Social Experiment

One of the most publicised cultural programmes in China today is their social credit system. (13) The program utilizes widespread citizen surveillance to encourage society towards desirable behaviours. Hence, recycling and engaging in charity work help to unlock perks, while those caught jaywalking or smoking in non-designated areas face punishments such as denial of access to certain rail services.  This concept may suggest that Chinese consumers could have a higher threshold of tolerance for a surveillance society compared to western customers.

The Future Consumer

Is it possible to generalize meaningful insights about what customers might want in a decade’s time? Ultimately the future Chinese consumer is as complicated as the society in which he or she resides. Companies crave information and access to this growing demographic, so China’s dynamic society will probably keep trend-watchers busy well into the 2020’s.

 

References :

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/21/china-ai-world-leader-by-2030.html
  2. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative/v
  3. https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1978396/chinas-one-belt-one-road-plan-covers-more-half-population-75
  4. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative
  5. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/chinas-overseas-investment-drops-for-the-first-time-on-record.html
  6. http://www.asiascot.com/news/2018/07/26/belt-road-initiative-reshaping-global-value-chain/
  7. https://www.unescap.org/blog/shifting-supply-chains-foreign-direct-investment-likely-to-expand-in-southeast-and-south-asia-in-response-to-trade-war A
  8. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
  9. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
  10. http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html
  11. https://www.travelagentcentral.com/running-your-business/unstoppable-rise-chinese-traveller-where-are-they-going-and-what-does-it-mean
  12. https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/Media/Default/landing-pages/cities/OE-cities-summary.pdf
  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kwv

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Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-3222894/ by PrettySleepy2

Could Human Enhancement Prevent Robots from Taking Jobs?

By Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, Alexandra Whittington

The chorus of voices arguing that “robots will take our jobs” have many complaints but few solutions – which is a growing concern given that automation is already impacting jobs and clearly a critical societal driving force of the very near future. But rather than sit back and decry the robots’ encroachment on the working world while accepting it’s inevitability, should we be fighting back and how might we do it? Can we use science and technology advances to compete and enhance our way to future job security? This article looks at how enhanced humans may turn the “replaced by robots” debate on its head.

Thanks to advances in biology, genetics, pharmaceuticals, wearable technology, neurotech, and wireless connectivity, it is increasingly conceivable, and scientifically possible, that humanity—rather than being overshadowed by the rise of AI—might be ready to surpass all previous real or imagined limitations of our brains and bodies. The range of enhancements can range from chemical, genetic, and neurological augmentation of the body’s basic architecture through to physical and electronic developments to extend our capabilities and a range of treatments to extend life expectancy. If such dramatic enhancements – as supported by the transhumanist movement – were used to expand the capability and value of human workers massively, robots may not have the job decimating impact that so many predict. Of course there are many who are quite happy with the prospect of infinite human leisure in a world run by robots.

Sensory Augmentation

In the next ten to fifteen years, we could see the emergence of a new normal, where people can routinely obtain a range of extreme sensory augmentations. An example might be the smart contact lenses that are already emerging, which can effectively transform the human eye into a visual interface. Another development might include augmented hearing, which would help address the fact that as most humans age, we naturally lose the ability to hear higher frequencies. In the future, we may be able to reverse this, or even enhance human hearing beyond the normal range via aural implants directly connected to our brains.

To avoid sick days, employees could have an augmented immunity bubble of subcutaneous implants that would detect pathogens in the immediate environment and provide antibodies to protect from specific contagious diseases. On a bigger scale, this enhancement might make most public health measures irrelevant as coughing, sneezing, and touching may no longer pose a risk. Handwashing and vaccines could become unnecessary, while a global antibiotic crisis could also be averted.

How about emotional intelligence and social skills? Future hiring committees in companies working with co-bots will need soft skills in human staff. Heightened emotional sensitivity could be achieved through deep brain stimulation. Furthermore, workplace injury and accidents might be averted if humans obtain total control of how much physical sensations affect them. We could turn a dial to increase touch sensitivity during intimate moments, or while playing a car chase computer game, but dial down our sensitivity in anticipation of physical pain or hard, repetitive labor.

Super Organisms

One of the prime goals of many in the Transhumanist movement is to take evolution to its next level and create organisms that blur the boundaries between humans, robots, and AI. The intention is to create enhanced lifeforms with a range of superhuman capabilities, able to form into telepathically connected collectives where each organism is an extension and representation of the whole. An example would be the hive mind of the Borg in Star Trek. Such a truly human social network would potentially outshine any mixed reality workplace or distributed autonomous organization (DAO) operating on code alone.

Radical Life Extension and Cryogenics

Those involved in the pursuit of radical life extension often refer to “curing death” as their raison d’être. Aging is viewed as an unnecessary evil, a mere medical problem waiting to be solved. Being able to live 125 years or more with comfort and good health seems to be the current vision for life extension proponents, who advocate for pharmaceutical, dietary, and lifestyle adaptations to achieve longer than natural life spans.

Rather than extend life, cryogenics is a potentially transformative breakthrough that puts life on pause, to restart later in time, decades or centuries from now. The idea behind cryogenic freezing is that, in the future, medical technology will be able to reanimate a body which has been preserved in liquid nitrogen at very low temperatures. The elderly and the terminally ill are the most likely candidates for cryo, although there could be elective preservation conducted for personal reasons in the future. Of course, we have no idea whether we’ll ever have the technology to re-awaken the physical body and restore memory and consciousness, much less pick up where you left off at your old job. No matter how many decades pass, many proponents argue that it’s safe to guess that cryo-human will be at an advantage here, since access to organic knowledge, memories, and consciousness will always supersede the artificial intelligence of machines.

Permanent Job Security

In the future, as automation disrupts many industries and sectors, jobs will be at risk. But healthy employment is one of the most important quality of life indicators and an expression of properly applied human capital. Transhumanism and human enhancement technologies may generate new strategies to defend jobs from roboticization.  Augmented senses, blurring the line between humans and machines, and extended lifespans may be among the more controversial but plausible answers to humans having—and keeping—an edge on machines in the future.

 

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From Climate Change to Climate Crisis: What Are Our Options Now?

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, Alexandra Whittington
Critical Human Systems

The near-term economic impact of climate change is complicated by the range of potential variables and assumptions. Studies have placed the figure in the range of 2-20% of global GDP.(1) The Australian Reserve Bank recently announced that it will be taking climate change impacts into account when setting interest rates.(2) The economic losses could be highest for manufacturing industry, transport and energy sectors.

Furthermore, climate change related water shortages and pollution could undermine the economic performance and health conditions of populations worldwide. Migration could take place as people seek out a better quality of life and the increased movement of people may lead to a growth in disease outbreaks. The UK public health system, for example, is likely to face potential climate related changes to disease epidemiology among citizens and visitors. Rising disease levels may require more increasingly sophisticated monitoring mechanisms, drawing on social media, disease notification systems, and artificial intelligence visual analysis tools to assess tourists and immigrants arriving from high risk locations.

Growth of Environmental Activism and Risks of Inaction

Awareness of climate change is increasing, particularly amongst younger generations. Technology and cyber activism provide activists with the ability to connect on a global scale and share ideas and information easily, leading to the formation of a global environmentalist movement.

International treaties and pressure from civil society may encourage many governments to act on climate change. However, we may see continued political resistance and resulting inaction in several countries. This may be because they argue with the science, lack the funds to make the required national investments, put short term economic priorities first, or are reluctant to pressurise business and the community to change behaviour.

The combination of adverse climate effects and increasing consumption is expected to deplete natural resources. In such circumstances, countries will be challenged to balance short term necessities to feed their populations with long-term priorities to address the implications on both the health of the planet and its citizens. For example, almost half of the world already live in regions of water scarcity. These regions could become even more adversely affected with climate change increasing the occurrence of drought and food insecurity.

Persistently rising sea levels and extreme weather could increase the vulnerability of coastal cities in particular – rendering a number potentially uninhabitable.(3) This is in turn could lead to mass migration of populations, particularly from the south to north on the planet. Such developments would test the ability of nations and global governance systems to cope with mass migrations and the decline of key centres of economic activity. The second and third order effects could see global economic volatility, the closing of national borders, and drastic action to deter migrants.

Investment in Geo-Engineering

A wide range of geoengineering or climate engineering ideas have been proposed to help combat climate change by intervening in the Earth’s natural systems – oceans, soils, and atmosphere. The two main categories of solution focus on reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth or capturing Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere. Possible solutions include cooling the Earth by injecting sun-blocking particles into the stratosphere, afforestation, carbon air capture, and iron fertilization of oceans. However, these measures are likely to be expensive and will at best act as temporary solutions to dangerous climate change. They will not eliminate the need to deal with the problem at source by reducing CO2 emissions.(4)

One practical solution under consideration is to reduce the amount of solar radiation reflected from the planet’s surface, which is called its ‘albedo’. This can be done through a range of small to geoscale measures such as whitening roofs, better land-use management, overlaying reflective sheeting on large land areas such as glaciers and deserts.(5)

Marine cloud brightening is another proposed climate engineering approach to solar radiation management that could help offset anthropogenic global warming. The approach would brighten clouds to help them reflect small amounts of sunlight back into space.(6) A key candidate solar radiation management solution is to engineer a global dimming effect using stratospheric sulphate aerosols. This approach would use artillery, aircraft, and balloons for atmospheric release of sulphide gases such as sulphuric acid, hydrogen sulphide, or sulphur dioxide.(7)

Cloud seeding is an approach which seeks to alter the microphysical processes within clouds in order to change the amount and type of precipitation that falls. The technique has already been tried by many countries with varying degrees of success. By 2035, the approach is likely to become commonplace to increase rainfall in drought regions.(8) This reflects the relatively low cost of conducting cloud seeding compared to other weather and climate engineering techniques. Estimates suggest cloud seeding could boost precipitation by 5 to 15%.(9) Weather engineering could reduce the impacts of severe weather events such as hurricanes and hail.

Response Strategies

Wind, solar, and other renewables could account for about 30% of the world’s electricity generation capacity by 2040. In regions such as Europe, the figures could be reach 50%(10) or higher depending on the speed of transition to renewables – enabled by government commitment, energy sector investment, and local energy solutions.

A number of climate analysis organisations have come together to define a set of Mission 2020 goals and milestones(11) to help deliver on the long-term objectives of the Paris Climate Change agreement. These milestones cover energy, infrastructure, transport, land use, heavy industry, and investment in climate action. A key enabler of the Mission 2020 targets is for coal and fossil fuels to be removed faster from the global energy mix than the current rate of progress.

The EU has set a target of reducing GHG emissions by 20% by 2020. To meet its target, the EU must reduce primary energy production by 3.9%.(12) Figures suggest that the EU is on target to exceed its goal.

With the right support, these response strategies can form a comprehensive challenge to the climate crisis, bringing planetary ecosystems back from the brink. Although the situation is dire, keeping up to date with the latest developments is one of the best ways to remain calm and carry on—which is exactly what we must do for future generations to have a fighting chance.

 

This article was published in FutureScapes. To subscribe, click here.

References:

  1. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF000922 Accessed 02/04/2019.
  2. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/rba-to-take-climate-change-into-account-when-setting-interest-rates Accessed 02/04/2019.
  3. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/08/19/coastal-cities-at-highest-risk-floods Accessed 02/04/2019.
  4. https://www.dezeen.com/2018/10/18/five-geoengineering-solutions-climate-change-un-ipcc-technology/ Accessed 02/04/2019.
  5. http://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/2018/05/surface-albedo-modification-technology-factsheet/ Accessed 02/04/2019.
  6. https://www.washington.edu/news/2017/07/25/could-spraying-particles-into-marine-clouds-help-cool-the-planet/ Accessed 02/04/2019.
  7. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/geoengineering-treatment-stratospheric-aerosol-injection-climate-change-study-today-2018-11-23/ Accessed 02/04/2019.
  8. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/can-cloud-seeding-help-ease-californias-drought.html Accessed 02/04/2019.
  9. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/cloud-seeding-may-make-it-snow-but-will-it-reduce-droughts-in-the-west/2018/02/23/88efeafe-1675-11e8-92c9-376b4fe57ff7_story.html?utm_term=.4ce3f088cb9d Accessed 02/04/2019.
  10. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/renewable-energy-world-power-source-bp Accessed 02/04/2019.
  11. http://www.mission2020.global/milestones-alternative-energy/ Accessed 02/04/2019.
  12. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Europe_2020_indicators_-_climate_change_and_energy#General_overview Accessed 02/04/2019.

Image: https://pixabay.com/photos/global-warming-ecology-nature-2034896/ by TheDigitalArtist

EdTech 2030: Data, Disruption, and Decentralization

By Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, Alexandra Whittington

What are the biggest developments in the educational technology world? We take a look at some of the major edtech developments with the potential to revolutionise the learning ecosystem between now and the 2030’s.

Internet of Education

Greater internet access worldwide has rapidly increased the demand for flexible online study options. This is projected to increase and is driving major changes for schools and universities.(1) Considerable investment of resources is required for infrastructure, systems, and connectivity. The goal is ensuring that diverse student cohorts studying in this delivery mode are supported academically. As part of curricula based on and in the technologies deployed, students will increasingly learn how to research, communicate, and use digital tools while learning in their discipline of study. There is a major impact here on the training of educators, and a pressing need for them to gain first-hand experience of how organisations use the technology in their day to day activities.

Students Learn in a Virtual World

The emergence of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) are helping educators to rethink how aspects of learning can become more experiential at all stages from nursery to workplace learning. Technology-based teaching can promote personalised tuition as a way of maximising each student’s learning, allowing individuals to study at their own pace. Using AR or VR gadgets, learners can take lessons or undertake training both in and out of formal education settings. In terms of teaching methodology, closed and open learning currently require the use of VR headsets.(2) In contrast AR solutions can be delivered across a range of technology devices such as smartphones, tablets, and laptops.

Robot Classroom Assistants

AI and automation are filtering through to most work and study sectors, including the classroom and workplace. We are seeing the emergence of education robots that learn from every interaction with humans and accumulate knowledge and learner-specific information over time. These fully autonomous robots are guided by AI software. Features such as motion tracking and speech recognition enable the robots to help students learn skills while also adapting to the individual’s preferences around learning approaches, pacing, guidance, and encouragement. The robots can even be programmed to make carefully calculated errors when working with students, who learn while correcting their personal “edbot”.

The currently prevailing view is that these machines will not replace humans—instead the intention is that they will serve as effective helpers to teachers who will focus on the students’ emotional and social needs. Others argue that the fully automated robot-led classroom could be less than five years away in some developing and developed countries alike – with the robot working from predefined scripts (see Scripted Teaching Programmes).(3)

Expansion of Smart MOOCS

While the growth MOOCs as a technological platform looks set to continue,(4) the growing use of AI within them will allow the customization of learning paths tailored to each students’ capabilities. To offer students more individual attention, AI teaching assistants could also be used to answer students’ questions, guiding them through the learning process.

Hybrid degrees and other courses might increasingly emerge – combining both online elements and content delivered at a physical campus. The goal would be to make it more affordable to students wishing to obtain a degree or other qualification or re-train for a new career in a specific subject whilst also working in parallel. Such an approach is already proving increasingly attractive to employers. Students learn workplace skills alongside course content and have a clearer and more immediate context in which to apply their learning.

Brain Imaging Revolutionises Teaching

One of the critical issues in the evolving education landscape will be to understand the most effective way for each student to learn. This will be happening in an environment characterised by an increasing range of cognitive insights and technological solutions to support learning. The use of brain imaging will allow us to fine-tune education by testing what modes of teaching work best for an individual. The hope is that brain imaging will allow us to observe how different teaching methods alter the brain.(5) The impact will be to allow the creation of specific learning programs for each student, allowing a degree of personalisation never achieved before.

Chemical Knowledge Transfer

In a world where technology may be performing many of the core elements of “work” we will need to rethink the role of humans in work and society, and the underlying skills required. Furthermore, in the same way as AI could eradicate all undesirable tasks from our to-do lists, chemical education might replace most forms of information gathering. Instead of classroom or workshop-based studies, individuals would increasingly take part in physical and chemical transfer activities to learn how to sense and interpret their feelings, how to develop their intuition and empathy, and how to interact, debate, collaborate, and resolve conflict with others. While most task specific knowledge would be taught on the job by physical or chemical means, these social actions will be important to assimilating new information, which will help in creating stronger social bonds. New memories would form based on those interactions.

Using chemical transfer, deeper, more valuable social bonds may emerge, and a stronger community purpose could be gained. Memories and knowledge would then become standard downloadable files. Each file would contain the right molecular ratios for each ribonucleic acid (RNA) sequence needed to recreate any individual piece of information. Home use RNA synthesis memory machines could become inexpensive and used to recycle organic materials to manufacture the desired injectable RNA sequence.(6)

AI becomes our Teacher

In the future, AI could be better than human teachers at knowledge transmission and delivering personalised learning. Such tools would evolve through continuous data collection, analysis, and adaptive optimisation, teaching students according to their capabilities. The emergent technologies are opening up unparalleled opportunities for new methods of teaching to the extent that humans could become redundant in a teaching process where intelligent machines take over.

The 2030 EdTech Ecosystem

2030 is likely to be characterised by the continuous movement towards an evolving ecosystem of technologies in education.(7) It will be possible to see the delivery of educational courses using AR / VR including holographic technology which could help students understand and interact with very complex and highly theoretical pieces of knowledge. Such immersive technologies could also enable the hosting of talks to a group of students or individuals interested in a specific topic, especially in the humanities and social sciences, delivered by experts from anywhere around the world.

Supervision, monitoring, and management of the content and students’ progress will be provided by AI learning guides. Feedback on any concerns about a particular student can be passed to a human social welfare staff member at the hosting institution. Ideally, the 2030 edtech ecosystem will be one that supports individual learning in a sea of impersonal data and machines. While the benefits are huge, society needs to remain aware of the risks and the need for future generations to retain control of learning technology.

 

This article was published in FutureScapes. To subscribe, click here.

References:

  1. https://www.studyinternational.com/news/future-online-learning-look-like-report/ Accessed 01/04/2019.
  2. https://readwrite.com/2018/05/10/how-ar-and-vr-will-revolutionize-the-classroom/ Accessed 01/04/2019.
  3. https://www.tes.com/news/robots-teaching-assistants-primary-schools-will-become-routine Accessed 01/04/2019.
  4. https://www.diggitmagazine.com/papers/rise-moocs-can-online-distance-learning-replace-traditional-education Accessed 01/04/2019.
  5. https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2016/08/18/brain-imaging-eyed-as-path-to-better.html Accessed 01/04/2019.
  6. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/15/science/memory-transfer-snails.html Accessed 01/04/2019.
  7. https://education.minecraft.net/wp-content/uploads/13679_EDU_Thought_Leadership_Summary_revisions_5.10.18.pdf Accessed 01/04/2019.

 

Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/library-nature-naturopathy-3992076/ by pixundfertig

 

Strategic Trends in Aviation

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, Alexandra Whittington

From the continued evolution in airframe design and new materials, to new engine and propulsion technologies, and the apparent demise of the jumbo jet as an air travel concept, thinking on aircraft manufacturing is in a renaissance phase. In this environment, the strategies and business models of manufacturers will increasingly be driven by how new technologies can provide additional opportunities to meet passenger and airline demands and continue to enhance the inflight experience.

These opportunities will continue to evolve to enable manufacturers to deliver and maintain aircraft in an increasingly connected, cost effective, and sustainability conscious manner. This article looks at some of the innovation taking place in aircraft technology and manufacture today, and the possible innovations of the next decade.

Growing Reliance on AI

Manufacturers are becoming increasingly reliant on artificial intelligence (AI) to accelerate design, modelling, and testing of new airframe concepts. For example, AI technology is already used for the design of cabin partitions on planes to ensure strength with no additional weight.(1) Airlines, and to a lesser extent airports, will need to ensure that they are staying ahead of the curve in terms of understanding the functionality, benefits, and risks inherent in the use of such innovative technologies. This will also have implications for the type of talent that recruiters within the industry will need to be looking for.

Aircraft-as-a-Service

A major strategic thrust for aircraft manufacturers is likely to be the continued expansion into downstream activities. This could increasingly be underpinned by new data analytics driven services for airlines and airports – leveraging off the volumes of data being generated by every aircraft movement. Developing such recurring streams of income would transform their revenue models and risk profile.

Personal Air Transportation

The vision of personalised flight is a long-held dream for many in the aviation world, and technology is taking us closer to making it a reality. From flying cars, aerial taxis, and passenger drones, to personalised aircraft variants, the technology to produce such vehicles is close to market. A number have launched flying cars in the last few years with very limited commercial take up. However, companies such as Uber, Airbus, and BlackFly are now making significant investments and working on producing and marketing different forms of personal air transportation by 2020.(2) The launch of flying taxi services in both China and Dubai are also expected within two years.(3)

Folding Wings

Innovative folding wing tips have been included in the wing design of Boeing’s 777X aircraft.(4) The goal is to ensure that it can continue to use the current airport gate infrastructure at many airports around the world that are served by existing aircraft types such as the 777, 787 series, and even the Airbus A380. As a result, the new 777X can be categorized as an ICAO “code E” aircraft and thus eliminate the need for any gate or runway modifications.(5) The concept of innovative design to ensure compatibility with existing airport infrastructure minimises additional airport investment to accommodate advanced aircraft designs.

Commercial Supersonic Services

Supersonic aircraft could emerge as a widely available and viable transport mode by the mid-2020’s, opening up new segments to the industry and possibly heralding the entry of new players. New entrants such as Boom Technology, Aerion, and Spike, and existing players such as Boeing are working on developing the technology for premium and mass market air transportation.(6) With Boom hoping to launch by 2020, this raises the question of what infrastructure requirements are expected to serve a new generation of supersonic aircraft?

Biofuels

As passenger numbers continue to grow, airlines face an ever greater challenge of meeting emissions expectations, and this could be addressed through the use of renewable jet fuels.(7) The industry is likely to expand its renewable fuel commitments with bio-refineries to drive improvements in fuel cost and availability of these alternatives. Airports and aircraft manufacturers will need to work to develop efficient fuel delivery mechanisms, and ensure that emissions targets are met. To achieve its goals, the Air Transport Indusrty as a whole will need to work with government to ensure sufficient funding for ongoing fuel research and development, with a focus on developing low-cost feed stocks and improving refinery efficiency to meet the scale up demands of the sector.

Elimination of Turbulence and Noiseless Aviation

Air Travel could be free of turbulence in the future. Boeing is currently working on technology that can sense and therefore avoid turbulence.(8) Software analyses the velocity of the wind ahead and indicates the presence of clear air or turbulence ahead to the pilot.

Furthermore, reducing the level of aircraft noise could have a transformative impact on the relationship between airports and local residents. The Silent Aircraft Initiative from the Cambridge-MIT Institute has been established with the goal of making aviation virtually noiseless by 2030. Working with an airport, air traffic control, and local airlines, the project is using existing aircraft, and developing and flight testing an enhanced form of Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs). These reduce noise and fuel burn by eliminating level segments, keeping aircraft higher for longer, and descending at near idle thrust.(9) For airports, this could potentially pave the way for extended operational flying hours.

Development of Electric Planes

EasyJet has announced it may have the technology ready by 2030 to deploy electric passenger planes, initially a 9-seater, for short distance flights.(10) The development of electrical aircraft could drastically change aircraft design and open opportunities for new entrants. It will also enable quieter operations, which will reduce noise pollution over the residential areas surrounding airports.

Capsules Transported by Carrier Aircraft

Planes that carry capsules containing people, freight, or fuel could provide scope for the same vehicle to perform multiple roles.(11) The capsules would be easily attached and detached from the airframe, allowing for very quick rotations on the ground.(12) Although its implementation may require new airport infrastructure, it could allow for streamlined boarding and aircraft turnaround.

The Future of Aircraft Technology

The future depends on the interactions between a variety of factors, from environment to consumer preferences, none of which we can actually predict. However, the amount of innovation and creativity now on display suggests that there is a renaissance of ideas which are defining the future of aviation technology.

 

References:

  1. https://www.autodesk.com/customer-stories/airbus Accessed 03/04/2019.
  2. https://www.compelo.com/flying-cars-uber-rolls-royce/ Accessed 03/04/2019.
  3. https://www.unmannedairspace.info/urban-air-mobility/urban-air-mobility-takes-off-63-towns-cities-worldwide/ Accessed 03/04/2019.
  4. https://www.designboom.com/technology/boeing-777x-foldable-wings-05-23-2018/ Accessed 03/04/2019.
  5. https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/ICAO_Aerodrome_Reference_Code Accessed 03/04/2019.
  6. https://www.aerotime.aero/aerotime.team/22308-boom-aerion-spike-head-to-head-in-supersonic-jet-race Accessed 03/04/2019.
  7. https://www.greenaironline.com/news.php?viewStory=2504 Accessed 03/04/2019.
  8. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/could-new-technology-make-turbulence-a-thing-of-the-past/ Accessed 03/04/2019.
  9. http://silentaircraft.org/ Accessed 03/04/2019.
  10. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-easyjet-ceo-electric/easyjet-expects-to-be-flying-electric-planes-by-2030-idUKKCN1N31PS Accessed 03/04/2019.
  11. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/airbus-zodiac-aerospace-lower-deck-sleep-space/ Accessed 08/04/2019
  12. https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/clip-air-pod-airplane-concept/index.html Accessed 03/04/2019.

This article was published in FutureScapes. To subscribe, click here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-2648958/ by Absolute Vision

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