By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, Alexandra Whittington, Helena Calle, and April Koury

Which shock factors are you and your organization prepared for?

Thinking the Unthinkable

Financial meltdowns are generally not caused by completely unexpected shocks. Typically, warning signals are visible to those close to the action who know where the fragilities are. The problem is that we may not know how to act pre-emptively, or don’t want to move first for fear of disproportionately adverse outcomes for our business, sector, or nation. Often, we simply don’t want to think about potential problems and disasters as we are not so well equipped to navigate through them. So, there can be a tendency to ignore or wave away warning signals and those who raise them. As futurists, our role is to help leaders address these issues by exploring the factors shaping the future, thinking the unthinkable about potential shocks, and examining how these might all combine into different scenarios.

Here, we deliberately focus on potential shock factors that could combine and accelerate, leading to a financial Armageddon scenario. We go on to explore actions financial advisors can take to help prepare and protect their clients.

New Systemic Risks

The 2007-08 meltdown led to a raft of new legislation and controls. However, while some high-risk products and questionable practices may have been stamped out, there are concerns that a range of even more devastating financial timebombs lie ticking under the surface. These start with relatively well-known concerns like unserviceable personal, corporate, and national debt, heavily debt-exposed banks, and pension fund deficits.

The challenges extend to newer and more exotic flavors of risk emerging from artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain-based products and services that are difficult to comprehend and regulate. These include highly complex algorithmically generated and traded assets and volatile, bubble-like markets for cryptocurrencies, initial coin offerings (ICOs), tokenized asset offerings, and entirely digital decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) trading entities that currently seem to lie beyond the comprehension and control of many financial regulators.

The Rush to FinTech

An economic downturn could see accelerated movement of funds into the new asset classes and digital product and service platforms emerging across financial sectors. The FinTech boom is accelerating and expanding its focus from platforms to new asset classes as outlined above, attracting billions of dollars from traditional investors and newcomers. The mainstream financial services sector has been left somewhat flat footed by FinTech and is seeing competitors offering traditional services at a fraction of the cost. The spectrum of offerings gaining traction include algorithmic hedge funds (e.g. Numerai), crowdfunded corporate debt (WiseAlpha), peer-to-peer lending (Lending Crowd, Zopa), digital banks (Monzo, N26), financial advice (Pefin), robo-trading (Collective2), and copy trading (Covesting).

Trade Wars, Sanctions, and a Global Stock Market Meltdown

A significant expansion of the trade conflict between the USA and China could lead to dramatic revenue reduction, stock market collapses, and job losses in both economies and spread globally. This could be exacerbated through wider sanctions against Russia, Iran, Qatar, and other nations challenging the “world order.”

Escalation of Armed Conflict and Instability

International and intranational conflicts appear to be on the rise. Several potential flashpoints could disrupt energy and raw material supplies and spook global markets. Key here are tensions between the UK, USA, and NATO and Russia; Saudi Arabia and Iran; and Gulf coalition countries and Qatar. While armed engagement in the South China Seas seems lower on the risk register, there is still significant potential for flashpoints between the USA and China that could set the world on edge.

Brexit Downturn

While peace may break out between Britain and the EU over the terms of the exit, the medium- to long-term outcomes remain uncertain. A poorly managed Brexit could be calamitous, triggering a prolonged global recession. Through the exit and transition period, the UK could become mired in the change process. Most government departments will have to focus on extraction from the European Union (EU) and put in place mechanisms to replace those of the EU. The costs of withdrawal, implementing new systems such as customs, and recruiting staff into government could result in cuts in spending in several areas such as welfare payments and infrastructure development.

Foreign companies may accelerate withdrawal of key operations from the UK and automation may accelerate as firms reduce risks by cutting staff costs—swapping machines for humans. Markets may be further unsettled by transition uncertainties and an extended rebalancing period for the economy. The outcome could see massive public and private sector job cuts, rising import costs, significant declines in government tax revenues, consumers switching from spending to saving, and higher levels of personal debt. Uncertainty could also drive more company failures, declining corporate investment, a growing number of empty commercial buildings and retail outlets, falling domestic and commercial property prices, rising poverty levels, and higher social welfare costs. In response, share indices could fall 20% or more, with GDP collapsing by 6-10%, the pound reaching dollar parity, and unemployment hitting 20%. The UK economy could nosedive into a multi-year recession.

Global Economic Slowdown

Since the financial crisis, many economies have stabilized, enjoying increasing GDP, rising employment, and stock market growth. However, the factors above could trigger abrupt global retrenchment. Furthermore, contagion effects from the Brexit scenario could engulf the planet, fueling further chaos. Additional contributory factors could include rising nationalism, and more widespread tariff barriers. Domestic debt problems, declining consumption, and tougher export markets could also hamper global growth engines like China, India, Indonesia, Germany, Mexico, the Philippines, and Malaysia.

Technology Sector Collapse

A technology backlash could lead or amplify global market reverses and economic decline. Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook are the five most valuable public companies on the planet by market capitalization. The uplift in global stock indices in recent years, can in part be attributed to growing dominance of these players in consumer and business markets. Furthermore, most growth predictions for the future place a significant emphasis on technology sector expansion and exponential growth of new entrants, sectors, products, and services. Some believe the pushback is already happening. For example, President Trump’s hostility toward Amazon is adding to rising public anger fueled by Facebook’s privacy issues, the growth of surveillance capitalism, and mounting concerns over the potential adverse economic impacts of AI.

AI and Cliff Edge Automation

Exponential automation technologies such as AI, robotics, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, autonomous vehicles, and 3D/4D printing could drive rapid replacement of humans—a process that has already started in several sectors such as retail, logistics, and financial services. This might catalyze a near-term collapse in consumer spending and tax revenues, while driving up unemployment benefit and welfare claims. For the medium to longer term, it is almost impossible to make meaningful predictions of the impacts, because it is unclear whether we will see displaced jobs replaced in full by new opportunities. The hope is that jobs will emerge in renewable energy, green and autonomous transport, synthetic biology, distributed micro-manufacturing, human augmentation, and new service sectors. However, they may be several years off and will require considerable workforce retraining.

The near-term concern is that physical robots and smart software could replace vast quantities of jobs in sectors like manufacturing, warehousing and logistics, transport, retail, construction, customer service, finance, and administration. Typically, these technologies are deployed in “cliff edge” implementations where 50% or more of the workforce could be rendered unnecessary overnight through automation.

Collapse of Major Businesses Across Sectors

A cluster of major businesses failing could lead to a domino effect that pulls others under and wreaks havoc in the economy and public markets. Recent failures of firms like Carillion, Maplin, and ToysRUs, have reinforced concerns that no business is immune from change or too big to fail. A rash of store closures by retailers such as Marks and Spencer and New Look in the UK also highlight the growing struggle firms face to compete in the new economy. Internet competition, new business models, high overheads, growing debt obligations, closed mindsets, and outdated assumptions could drive many to the brink. Nervous lenders and investors could pull the plug on “at risk” firms. This could drag down those further from the edge as their financiers become more risk-averse in their outlook.

Occupy V2.0—Social Upheaval

Collectively the factors outlined above might drive social unrest. This might take the form of boycotts of brands perceived to be automating in an insensitive manner, occupation protests, crippling cyber strikes, and physical attacks. Prime targets might include financial institutions and others considered to be profiting massively while others are driven to the breadline. A second wave of disruption might come from professions who feel public budget cutbacks have rendered their services untenable. Unrest is clearly starting to rise among groups as diverse as doctors, nurses, teachers, the military, police, and fire services.

A third and perhaps surprising shock might be a growing and progressively more disruptive challenge from women in the workforce to be treated as equal in every regard, immediately. There is growing frustration—from #metoo and #timesup—to appalling gender pay disparities revealed in company disclosures. The World Economic Forum estimates it will take 217 years to reach gender equality on pay and opportunities at current rates of progress. Indeed, that figure has worsened by 47 years in just one year. Concerted disruptive action by women across society could impact every sector, with serious economic consequences.

Five Key Actions

For advisors, such uncertainties pose immense challenges. As futurists, we suggest five key actions:

• Track a wide range of risk factors and provide regular client updates and commentaries on developments and possible directions of travel. Hosting, regular physical networking events would allow you to stay close to clients, hear their views on emerging issues, learn about their investment strategies and what opportunities they are seeing, and create collaboration opportunities between clients—all of which help raise your value to them.
• Become historians and do the analysis to see which asset classes, sectors, and geographic markets have fared best in past crises.
• Investigate emerging FinTech platforms and asset classes to understand how they work, risk factors, potential returns, and influencing forces.
• Test and adopt smart online tools to scan the marketplace continuously—providing clients with information on everything from bond rates to new ICO and IPO announcements.
• Investigate creating your own pooled investment fund using a publicly available platform. This would allow clients to invest in each other’s businesses and participate in their third-party investments.

Positioning for Persistent Volatility

Immense volatility is likely to be the overriding backdrop for the UK and global economies for the decade ahead and beyond. The next two to three years could perhaps be the most uncertain with the interplay of factors such as trade tensions, a tech backlash, Brexit, the spread of AI, and automation. Developing an anticipatory radar, proactive options, and new approaches to adding value are likely to help ensure the best advisors survive and thrive the risks of financial Armageddon.

• What do you see as the most potentially impactful and uncertain shocks and what scenarios might play out?
• How resilient is your strategy to the emergence of potentially disruptive factors?
• Which are the shock factors you and your organization are aware of and have preparedness for?

This article is excerpted from A Very Human Future – Enriching Humanity in a Digitized World. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4384257/ by geralt

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4288553/ by geralt

A version of this article was originally published in Essential Retail.

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, Alexandra Whittington, April Koury, Karolina Dolatowska, and Maria Romero

What opportunities and challenges could arise for older workers in a post-jobs era?

Is the future for older workers bleak or blessed? So-called mainstream views of the future of work often strike highly pessimistic tones, perhaps with good reason. Some of the most-cited economic studies predict that half or more of all jobs could be taken over by machines within 20 to 30 years. The media can’t help but remind us that with those jobs go people, paychecks, and possibly an entire way of life.

The silver lining to this news is that the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) should also create new jobs. Artificial intelligence is, ironically, a technology that could provide unique opportunities in attractive new work roles, and may actually have the particular impact of allowing people to work longer and more flexibly across life stages in the future.

A Human Touch: Emotional Intelligence

While the current climate around AI is thriving with breakthrough developments (like algorithms that can develop new recipes, create new baby names, or design clothes), there are still many areas where AI is weak. So, for example, it is possible that one of the future roles for the over-50’s would be in an AI training capacity, teaching algorithms how to do non-computational things that require a human touch. While training your own replacement sounds less than ideal, it may be highly rewarding to teach AIs to use empathy in dealing with customers. For instance, helping AIs relate to clients experiencing health difficulties, or to use the right language and tone when dealing with frustrated coworkers could both lead to very positive experiences for all concerned—and the AI will never tire or lose patience.

Any attribute of employee performance requiring emotional intelligence is currently difficult to program; instead, it could become an area where retired workers, the semi-retired, or “gig workers” with a portfolio of jobs, could tutor AI programs to learn. These roles would probably allow for a great deal of personal development and greater understanding of interpersonal relationships and would resemble more of a nurturing, teaching, almost parenting-like function. They could probably be flexible in terms of hours and projects, which might be something retirees would welcome.

Guardians of What Matters

Another plausible future worth consideration for adults close to retirement is one where the rise of AI in the coming decades leads to the risk of important sources of traditional knowledge being lost. It is conceivable that nuanced things like manners, handwriting, water-cooler small talk, and humor could be some of the uniquely human characteristics that may prove difficult for smart machines to simulate. Therefore, is it imaginable that older, more experienced people could be valued for their social skills, and put to work in unconventional ways? Personalized tutoring in delicate and human customs could be a great job in which to spend our golden years.

Some people might be paid to just hang around a business in case a human touch is necessary. Visit upscale jewelry stores, boutiques, and hotels and one can see such roles already in existence. They would be reminiscent of the traditional role of elders in society, where the more experienced adults would be looked up to for wisdom, knowledge, and guidance instead of being rendered obsolete. Indeed, as technology creates pockets of artificiality via AI, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and other forms of simulated reality, it will be more important than ever to provide an authentic human context in the workplace.

Celebrating the value of the wisdom of elders is a lost tradition that might be particularly powerful for the Google generation, providing balance in a future dominated by algorithms and computation. Would humans retain their claim over important capabilities like interpreting body language and sensitivity to awkward situations? Assuming such insight remains difficult to impart via code, protecting various forms of social conventions would have a special function in the automated workplace. Older people would be able to transmit and teach knowledge to younger co-workers that would otherwise have been lost.

When Work Disappears, So Will Retirement

Obviously, it is preferable that new tools support human-centric workplaces rather than replace jobs and expertise; indeed, the desired future is often the one that’s easiest to see most clearly. In terms of AI, there’s a tremendous promise of unleashing human potential, rather than limiting it. In doing so, it could revolutionize the traditional trajectory of working life, from foundational training to retirement. However, the ideal outcome, where AI complements rather than usurps humanity, depends on its implementation. Unlike previous technological revolutions like electricity and computerization that changed work, AI represents direct competition to human employees.

Companies are salivating at the chance to cut costs and obtain the efficiency, reliability, and consistency possible with AI. However, the societal-level changes that automation will entail, such as redefining work, or education, or even our life purpose, renders a profit-driven mindset insufficient. Rather, companies should look at AI as a way to foster life-long relationships with employees; for example, could we see employers providing AI assistants at work that go on to become home-care bots in our retirement years? Authentic displays of human decency in engaging with people at any career stage might be how organizations can build AI-enabled workforces of real value.

• How might exponential technologies improve intergenerational relationships in the workplace?
• How could companies engage and retain experienced workers in a post-work future?
• How might technology best be deployed in businesses that emphasize providing a human touch in the care of retirees?

This article is excerpted from The Future Reinvented – Reimagining Life, Society, and Business. You can order the book here.

Image:https://pixabay.com/images/id-4319064/ by geralt

By Rohit Talwar and Alexandra Whittington

What future roles can we envisage for people in an automated world and what might the implications be for human-to-human relations?

Reframing Humanity’s Place in a Technological World

As we look at the changes shaping our world and the pace of technological advancement, some very big questions start to arise:

• Are humans irrelevant to the future of business?
• What role should humans play when machines can outperform them in most tasks?
• How should society prepare for an unknowable future?

There are five important dimensions that we must address as part of securing humanity’s future in an automated world and ensuring that the advances in technology are used to serve humanity—not replace it.

Reframing Society—We are reaching a truly dramatic point in human history where a number of exponential technologies are being combined to deliver radical performance improvements. A powerful mix of unleashed imaginations applied to disruptive technologies is catalyzing a possibility revolution across every aspect of human life, society, government, and business. As a result, in the next few years, society will be challenged to confront fundamental issues that go to the core of what it means to be human. Advances in science and technology will test every assumption we have about how our world works and the purpose of humans within it. For example, artificial intelligence (AI) already outperforms humans in many domains, and the possibility of artificial superintelligence, or constantly learning and evolving systems, could result in machines capable of overtaking human capabilities—ultimately even in so-called soft skills such as empathy, intuition, and creativity.

Humanity 2.0—Advances in cognitive enhancement drugs and “nootropic” supplements, electronic brain stimulation techniques, genetics, age extension treatments, 3D printed limbs and organs, and body worn exoskeletons, have given rise to the notion of enhancing the human brain and body well beyond the limits of natural evolutionary processes. Indeed, many leaders in the field of AI are fierce advocates of “Transhumanism” as the next stage of human evolution—arguing that if humans want to keep up with AI, we ourselves will have to become machines—embedding technology in our brains and bodies to give us similar levels of processing power. So, is there a meaningful future for version 1.0 humans in this brave new and enhanced world that the technoprogressives would have us believe is the only viable way forward for humanity?

The Risks of Automation—The challenge here lies in our choices as decision makers and the value we place on human attributes that machines cannot as yet replicate. Clearly, automation has many benefits such as cost efficiency, consistency, speed, and accuracy. Many firms will inevitably choose to place their faith in computer systems, automating wherever possible. Such a philosophy is common in new technology ventures where the heart of the business is embedded in its code. Some are already creating Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAO)—entities that have no employees and exist entirely in software. The potential rewards of widespread digitization of an enterprise are well-covered in the business media, but what isn’t talked about enough is the spectrum of risks presented by automation, especially to well-established organizations. Companies run the risk of dehumanizing and becoming identical to others in their industry—losing whatever their distinctive edge might be and commoditizing themselves in the process. Furthermore, the more we choose to embed all that we do in software, the easier it becomes for competitors to replicate our offering and go a step further at a slightly lower price—locking us into a deadly race to the bottom on prices, revenues, and profitability.

What Differentiates Humans from Machines?—The challenge is to harness AI and other disruptive technologies such as robotics, cloud computing, the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, and hyperconnectivity as power tools to support and unleash human potential. At least for some time to come, what differentiates a company will be very human characteristics—the quality of its ideas, strategies, and business models; its community relations; the ability to spot and exploit opportunities or address risks quickly; handling exceptional customer needs; creating new products and services; building deep connections within and outside the organization; how it navigates external developments such as regulatory requirements; and how well it manages change. These remain very human traits which machines cannot yet replicate. New technologies can play a powerful role in supporting the people performing these tasks and automating more routine work to free up time for us to undertake these higher-level human functions. Organizations that see AI as simply a way to cut back on staffing are missing the point.

Unleashing Human Potential—Artificial intelligence is increasing business productivity, knowledge, and efficiency, but humans cannot be written off just yet. In the insurance industry, while chatbots are emerging at the customer interface, there is a concern that AI is not yet at the point where machines can respond appropriately to distressed customers, an unfortunately common emotional state due to the nature of matters insurance companies deal with. Artificial intelligence offers a chance to re-humanize the workforce by providing more time to use our talents and softer skills and emotional intelligence while offloading less sensitive tasks to machines. Obviously, we will need training and support to help us step into these intellectually and emotionally more demanding roles.

Tomorrow’s Opportunities

As individuals, managers, leaders, investors, and politicians we crave certainty and predictability. We want the future served up to us on a plate with the timelines, impacts, and solutions clearly defined. Reality is far messier and changes constantly—the only certainties are that: i) ignoring the emerging future will store up problems; and ii) trying to apply yesterday’s or today’s solutions to the future’s challenges will almost certainly fail. What we do know is that the situation will evolve rapidly as the pace of technology quickens, and as businesses seek to act faster to take advantage of what’s on offer and respond to potential competitive threats. A wide range of professions from sales person and school teacher to investment banker, risk assessor, claims analyst, plumber, and bus driver will see technology emerge that can enhance or even replace their roles.

Within five years, it is reasonable to foresee quite significant shifts in the types of jobs available, the skills levels required, and a shortening duration for those roles. On a ten-year time frame, we could reasonably expect to see widespread automation, a dramatic reduction of the jobs that exist today, new roles emerging in new firms and in existing businesses as they seek to stay competitive, and educationally, a degree or its equivalent could become a minimum entry requirement for 80% or more of all new jobs created.

Navigating the Messy Middle

So, what about the messy middle between here and the end of the next decade? In the short term, the picture will be confused—certain firms and industries will accelerate rapidly toward an “employee light” model. Other sectors will see temporary skills shortages until the processes become more automated and the machines learn to code themselves. In professions ranging from machine learning specialists to quantity surveyors, we can see a near-term skills shortage with supply lagging demand. This represents an immediate opportunity to retrain people for these in-demand roles.

However, as the process of automation accelerates and the way we work evolves over the next 5-10 years, we might see skill shortages erode and the emergence of very different ways of achieving an outcome. For example, an autonomous vehicle might automatically fine its driver should they choose to take the wheel while drunk or override the speed limit. The vehicle might also self-insure—sharing the risk across the pool of autonomous cars on the road. These smart cars might also drive themselves to the shop for repairs—carried out by a team of robots and drones. These changes wouldn’t so much re-engineer the work of solicitors, courtrooms, garages, and insurance firms—rather the activities, associated tasks, and related jobs might be eliminated completely.

The Emergence of New Jobs

Over time, new jobs will arise with the emergence of new activities, businesses, and sectors. For example, human augmentation will require a range of new skills, possibly combined into hybrid roles that draw on chemistry, biology, electro-mechanical engineering, psychology, and counseling. Highly trained workers will also be required in sectors such as smart materials, 3D/4D printing, autonomous car manufacture, superfast construction, environmental protection and remediation, renewable energy, and care of the elderly. In insurance, the skills of the next generation risk assessor will need to encompass a wider range of disciplines to handle the new fields of science and technology coming to market.

At a more fundamental level, we could see a rise in teacher numbers if countries see education as a priority. In parallel, the opportunities in basic and applied R&D could blossom if nations and firms increase their research investments in search of future growth. We could also see a massive growth in small businesses and mentoring roles as people seek to take control of their own destiny. Increased leisure time could drive a resurgence of opportunities in the creative arts, with an expansion of training provision for would-be actors, dancers, painters, and poets. Finally, the stress associated with job displacement due to technology could result in a growing need both for mental health support for people while still in the job and for care in the community for those with mental health issues resulting from the loss of their job.

Redefining Jobs

One of the most important things to keep in mind is that there could be many new definitions of the term “job” in the next 5-20 years. A job today is still a fundamental assumption and organizing principle in most Western nations—even if it is being eroded, governments still plan on that basis. A job today is a means to earn money by achieving a set of given tasks. For some it is more—a calling to fulfill one’s purpose and give meaning and structure to our lives. For others, it is a means to an end—be that paying for our next meal or providing the money to realize our materialistic, experiential, or spiritual desires.

So, as work is gradually and then more rapidly automated away, what becomes of the job? What might a job look like in 2027? Will it still be a “production” role delivering measurable daily outputs, or will a job imply a more creative human activity? Will it still be what people do all day? Conceivably, AI could remove aspects of jobs that tend to be considered “work” while emphasizing the parts of a job that make it a social and enriching activity. Will we have moved to a guaranteed or universal basic income (UBI), with people having the choice over where they spend their time, from being a server in a restaurant to taking part in community building restoration projects? The link between how we spend our time and the income we receive might be broken in less than a decade, meaning people could have more autonomy over how they use their time and energy than ever before.

The technology we adopt today will also allow companies to increase their options in terms of achieving outcomes. While Company A might use AI to reduce the size and budget of their legal department, they might in turn boost their investment in the IT and HR departments to ensure they have the right technological capacities and that the attorneys and others they hire are absolutely the right fit. Company B might implement AI to reduce the number of customer service calls routed to human operators, but they could re-invest the salary savings on bringing in trainers and facilitators to raise digital literacy, emotional intelligence, critical thinking ability, and communication skills across the firm. New training curricula would require new positions to run the programs, e.g. “Director of Lifelong Learning.” In this case, a job might be more akin to an education: you would leave it smarter and better-prepared than when you arrived.

Time for Extraordinary Leadership

Aside from jobs, bringing AI into the workplace successfully will require new workplace leadership styles. The leaders of AI-powered organizations will face unprecedented challenges which will test their people skills and emotional intelligence. “Warm” and highly relatable individuals might be in demand to offset the extent of “cold” automation within an organization. Of course, this won’t be universally true—for some, the ultimate goal is to create the DAO, and for them the pursuit of automation and a workforce led by “robot overlords” is just a stepping stone to the employee-free business of the future. However, at present, humanity seems to be prevailing to some degree, and total digitization seems unlikely to become a genuine threat for the majority of larger global businesses in the near term.

Indeed, in a world where there’s a risk of automation, dehumanization, and commoditization proceeding hand in hand, those who put people first could find themselves better positioned to create, innovate, adapt, evolve, stand out, and outperform the market. Hence, leaders could become more important than ever, raising their own digital literacy, investing heavily in people development, and demonstrating the kind of extraordinary leadership required in an ever-evolving landscape. In many ways, the real opportunity is being ready to stand up for the longer term with this investment in people, going against a strong near-term focused, pro-AI trend that prioritizes immediate profits over humanity and future business sustainability.

The emphasis on machines, processes, and structures plays into, and perhaps emanates from, the dominant masculine culture in many firms. In contrast, the pursuit of a unique, distinctive, people-centered brand and culture means there could be a greater need for leading from the feminine, with an emphasis on traits such as empathy, social awareness, sensitivity, and collaborative working. Feminine might be just one word for it, but ultimately it is a perspective that puts people, relationships, and the long-term above efficiency and short-term cost savings.

New Professions and Ethical Frameworks

The technologies coming through will also enable and require new professions. For example, as driverless vehicles get closer to becoming a market reality, we may see the rise of the “autonomous ethicist”—specialists who attempt to work out the ethics necessary to program autonomous vehicles. This is going to be a social, moral, ethical, political, economic, and—ultimately—legal minefield. Many citizens, and every country, city, region, regulator, insurer, religion, civil rights group, and car manufacturer will want to contribute to the debate. The goal is to try and establish the rules and assumptions that will underpin the decision-making within an autonomous vehicle as it becomes aware that it is about to have an accident.

Should a self-driving vehicle prioritize the safety of its passenger, the pedestrian who stepped in front of it, or the pregnant mother on the pavement beside them? Should it put the interests of the taxi owner over those of the driver? How will it make those choices? Will it use facial recognition to identify individuals, and pull our tax records and other public information to work out what our net worth is to society or what our future contribution might be? How will it assess the contribution of a writer or journalist versus a baker, doctor, or actuary? What if it chooses to run down an irreplaceable hundred-year-old tree instead of a human? In a Hindu village in India, for example, running over a cow to save a passenger might be viewed as the worst possible outcome, and therefore the ethics programmed into the vehicle may prioritize the safety of the sacred animal over that of the human. Our ethicists will have to take account of all these different perspectives in constructing their guidance, and this could vary dramatically even within a country.

The Rise of New Sectors and Markets

Over the next decade, if things follow the “preferred future” that most nations and businesses are pursuing, the global economy could grow from about US$78Tn today to around US$120Tn. More than half of that is likely to come from businesses that have emerged recently or don’t yet exist, and over 80% will almost certainly be from products and services we don’t have today.

Industries will also change, with technology giving them a lower risk profile. Smart farms might mean fewer crop failures, the IoT could enable smart cities with better hazard prevention, and self-driving cars should theoretically never have accidents. Hence, the notions of self-owning and self-insuring vehicles becomes a possibility. An array of equally dramatic developments across a range of other sectors could have potentially serious implications for insurance. Furthermore, changing lifestyles, potentially lower real-term incomes, and smart tracking technology are all driving growth of the sharing economy and scenarios where ownership is becoming obsolete, and more possessions are shared and not owned by one individual. This goes along with the shrinking value of owning something and instead purchasing access to it. Shared items could come insured as part of the deal, thus negating any need for buying individual policies. The risks might be borne by the users and reflected in the price.

The growing experience economy also creates opportunities. For the developed world and middle classes everywhere, we are at a time in history where experiences are starting to matter more than things—while tricky to insure, these products could take a similar form to trip insurance. Infinitely flexible policies could be designed to protect people against bad dates or wasting their time on a movie they didn’t enjoy. The payout could vary from a ticket refund through to the cost of counseling and treatment should the experience be truly traumatizing.

Conclusion—Nurturing Human Qualities

To enable the kinds of shifts discussed here, a company needs to ensure an effective “innovation architecture” that supports a wide range of innovative thought and action across all employees. Key components would include ensuring leadership and management truly understand both the technologies reshaping our world and the associated mindsets that are creating new and disruptive concepts, strategies, business models, products, and services. At the local level, the freedom and capacity to conduct rapid market-facing experiments is critical—as is the need to have people across the organization seeking out and connecting with emerging businesses and sectors and their respective associations. These market-focused conversations are critical to understanding how current and future sectors and opportunities might evolve. The goal is to gain early access to what might become important future revenue streams.

For a company to navigate the decades ahead it needs to see itself as a living, breathing, constantly evolving, and very human organization—designed for and by people. This means a culture that embraces continuous innovation and experimentation on both an incremental and a dramatic scale, and willingness to pursue exponential improvements. Such a journey requires a highly empathetic, trusting, and nurturing relationship with employees where technology is seen as a means of allowing them the time to be creative, innovative, experimental, and customer-centric. In parallel, it means being seen to be supportive of those whose jobs are displaced. In short, it means committing to a very human future.

• How do we go about helping the whole of society understand the fundamental shifts that are shaping our collective futures?
• How might the future responsibilities of the firm evolve in relation to the needs of society?
• How might we as humans and societies cope with a rapid transition to a post-jobs future?

This article is excerpted from A Very Human Future – Enriching Humanity in a Digitized World. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-3978912/ by geralt

By Rohit Talwar and Alexandra Whittington

How might the technologies, functionality and governance of the internet evolve – what could this mean for individuals, society, business and government?

Envisaging tomorrow’s Internet

Advances in information and communications technology (ICT) are opening up many possible paths to the future of cyberspace as we know it. The resulting visions for tomorrow’s Internet vary quite dramatically – on one of the spectrum are the notions of a smart public servant that anticipates and serves our every need while protecting our information fiercely. Somewhere in the middle (depending on your perspective) is the notion of the Web as a synthesized reality which blurs seamlessly with our physical one. At the other extreme lie dystopian visions where our every action is monitored by governments and commercial interests and where we have to trade our privacy in return for access to goods and services. This Chapter discusses the forces and factors shaping the future possible evolution of the Internet and highlights how its role in business and society could evolve over the next twenty years.

Introduction – the internet as a central backbone for the planet

Since the birth of the World Wide Web (WWW) in 1991, the idea of the public internet has become established as central part of life for many in the developed world in particular. There is often confusion between the Internet as the underlying communications infrastructure and the World Wide Web – the globally distributed network of public websites that we access via the Internet.

So what else can we access via the Internet? Estimates suggest that 60 to 90 percent of all traffic on the internet goes to the so called Dark Web – also known as the Deep Web, Deepnet, Invisible Web, Hidden Web, and Dark Internet. These are publicly accessible sites that have hidden their IP addresses either for privacy, security or illicit reasons. They hide their IP address using encryption tools such as TOR and I2P and the users have to know where to find these sites and use the same encryption tools to gain access. Some argue that the evolution of the Dark Web may drive developments in the public Internet.

Today there are an estimated 3.13 billion public Internet users worldwide and this is projected to rise to 4.7 billion by 2025. We estimate this could reach anywhere from five to seven billion by 2035. Andrew Ellis, professor of optical communications at Aston University, told the Sunday Times that Internet usage in the UK “…is growing so fast, currently at an exponential rate, that, in theory, it could be using all the UK power generation by 2035.”

As the Internet becomes increasingly mobile, and the capabilities and speed of the underlying technologies improve, the scale and reach of the internet and World Wide Web of websites that reside on it are expected to grow over that same period. Most experts believe it will be the first truly global infrastructure service – reaching far more people than centralized electricity distribution or public water supplies.

How might the growing scale, functionality, sophistication and intelligence of the internet impact the way we live, how society operates, and the nature of business, government, and the economy? What could a truly multi-sensory internet be like – how would the addition of touch, taste, smell, and direct brain stimulation change our experience of the Web? Can we maintain net neutrality with all data being treated equally; will the net remain an open access public good or fall under commercial or governmental control? How will we power tomorrow’s Internet and avoid the risk of it draining public energy supplies? What are the implications for privacy, work, jobs, incomes, and social interactions? An exploration of the future of the internet must encompass all of these issues if we are to develop true insight on this phenomenon that is set to become the central nervous system of the planet over the next two decades.

In addressing these issues, we also need to ask ourselves some fundamental questions about the purpose, intent, role, ownership, and control of this increasingly powerful tool that many of us take for granted. What is the Internet, what is it for, what does it do, and should anyone own it? To help address these questions we will draw on three simple but powerful metaphors that describe the critical forces at play here:

• When Worlds Collide – the growing sense of urgency and shock arising from the clash between older physical entities and their newer “born digital” challengers.
• Masters of the Universe – the notion of emerging entities with boundless ambition, wielding almost mythical power, and displaying heroic leadership in their quest to take on any and every challenge.
• DNA Evolution – the rapid technological changes and resulting social shifts that could change the code of life itself. These forces are driven by a relentless pace of development of the underlying technologies that serve up the Internet and through which we access it. This evolution is also changing our understanding of where the internet “lives”. We have already watched computing and Internet access graduate from our desktops to portable and mobile devices. We are now in the phase of wearable access and evolving to one where our devices could increasingly be embedded in our brains and bodies.

On a 10 to 20-year timeframe the notion of devices being grown or grafted into to our bodies is not beyond the realms of possibility given the advances being made in the underlying scientific disciplines. On the short horizon is mass connectivity of everyday objects via the Internet of Things (IoT) – with projections of anywhere between 50 and 250 billion net-connected objects over the next 20 years. The future of the Internet over the next two decades and beyond is most likely to see a whole new hyperconnected world of networked people, objects, and systems capable of transforming, reframing, and undermining the established norms of business and society.

When Worlds Collide – The internet is becoming the battleground between those born physical and their born digital challengers. There is a fundamental clash of mindset and assumptions here. The former see and conceive the world as physical objects or concepts – people, homes, bank accounts. In contrast, the born digital community views everything as data, with every requirement, problem, or challenge resolvable by finding the right algorithms, with the solutions deliverable via the Web. As a result, they believe that the solution to every problem from education to food shortages and environmental issues can be tackled by applying a digital mindset and deploying the right exponential technologies. The internet is the critical ingredient that enables the scaling up and global co-ordination, management and distribution of solutions.

Masters of the Universe – The companies that provide essential and increasingly universal internet services are reaching across industry and product lines to come up with game-changing solutions. With such profound capacities going forward, the analogy “Masters of the Universe” seems suitable to express a sense that the data and insight being gathered via the Web allows firms like Google, Facebook, and the rest to believe they can do anything.

Critically, they own the user interface and the platforms through which users interact on a daily basis. This enables the providers of popular social media platforms, search engines, and mobile devices to capture far more data about our lifestyles on a daily basis than any retailer, bank, or other service provider can possibly hope to. They own the interface and brand experience for their customers and have a level of customer loyalty that is powering their ambitions. As a result life extension, self-driving automobiles, banking, and healthcare are just some of the sectors that the “Masters of the Universe” view as within reach and prime for dominance and / or disruption.

This group see themselves as both the saviors and the ultimate inheritors of the planet in a winner-takes-all race to conquer a digitally- enabled and cyber-dependent world. As the technology elites continue to throw their hats into the ring, it becomes clear there are few endeavors they will not attempt. CNN columnist Andrew Keen suggests this new class of leadership resembles, “….a pre-industrial cultural economy of patronage determined by the whims of a narrow cultural and economic elite rather than by the democracy of the marketplace.”

Mutations in the DNA – As the internet evolves, it seems likely that businesses will favor early identification of opportunities to use it to ensure access to new markets, customers, and relationships. As the internet’s functionality expands and the IoT blurs the boundaries between physical and virtual, so we will see continuous growth in the proportion of daily life that is Web-enabled, Web-dependent or Web-embedded. In this environment, accurate market insight and the choice of strategic actions will depend on having a solid grasp of the oncoming waves of technological advances.

An ever-expanding array of technology tools will increasingly define, expand, and enhance the parameters of daily life and the ways in which it could unfold. This shift to the Web is driving the mutation of DNA – how the internet will enable disruptors to change the game within sector after sector rather than playing within the rules. Some of the major mutations in the social and business DNA are gaining ground already and could have explosive impact in the coming decades – a number of such possibilities are explored later in the chapter.

Future internet visions and scenarios

A number of potentially competing views are emerging for how the internet could play out over the next 20 years. The Pew Research Digital Life 2025 project surveyed over 2,500 experts on the future of the internet. A key outcome was the notion of the internet as a utility that will soon “flow like electricity,” being a simple fact of life for which there is little concern or recognition as a separate thing from the machines it runs. The study outlined 15 predictions that provide a sense of the challenges, risks, trade-offs, and choices that will confront society, governments, and business leaders when considering a technology that runs the risk of fading into the background. The predictions provide a useful framework for understanding the potential breadth and depth of impact:

Functionality and Usage

• Information sharing over the Internet will be so effortlessly interwoven into daily life that it will become invisible, flowing like electricity, often through machine intermediaries.
• The Internet of Things, artificial intelligence (AI) and big data will make people more aware of their world and their own behavior.
• Augmented reality and wearable devices will be implemented to monitor and give quick feedback on daily life, especially in regard to personal health.
• The Internet will become “the Internets” as access, systems and principles are renegotiated.

Societal Impact

• The spread of the Internet will enhance global connectivity, fostering more positive relationships among societies.
• Political awareness and action will be facilitated and more peaceful change, and more public uprisings like the Arab Spring will emerge.
• The spread of the “Ubernet” will diminish the meaning of borders, and new “nations” of those with shared interests may emerge online and exist beyond the capacity of current nation-states to control.
• An Internet-enabled revolution in education will spread more opportunities with less money spent on buildings and teachers.

Emerging Risks

• Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence.
• Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and the offenders will have new capacity to make life miserable for others.
• Pressured by these changes, governments and corporations will try to assert power – and at times succeed – as they invoke security and cultural norms.

Societal Adaptation

• People will continue – sometimes grudgingly – to make tradeoffs favoring convenience and perceived immediate gains over privacy; and privacy will be something only the upscale will enjoy.
• Humans and their current organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks.
• Most people are not yet noticing the profound changes today’s communications networks are already bringing about; these networks will be even more disruptive in the future.
• Foresight and accurate predictions can make a difference; “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” The IoT is emerging as a common feature in most future visions and scenarios. The result of the proliferation of sensors and the embedding of intelligence and connectivity in a range of objects from domestic appliances and clothing to street signs, anywhere from 50 to 250 billion objects could potentially by connected to the internet over the next two decades. The World Economic Forum warns that the IoT: “Will have profound social, political and economic consequences, and increasingly form part of our everyday lives, from the cars we drive and medicines we take, to the jobs we do and the governance systems we live in.”

This extreme level of “Hyperconnectivity” would make globalization seem quaint on a comparative scale of impact. The same principles that minimized the Earth’s cultural and economic barriers will now do so in a way that engages inanimate objects in the Global Village. The social and economic impact could be far-reaching across intertwined networks of people, places, processes, transform markets, supply chains, living patterns, and the nature of work.

Microsoft’s June 2014 report Cyberspace 2025: Today’s Decisions, Tomorrow’s Terrain seeks to aggregate these diverse drivers and identifies three scenarios for the possible evolution of the internet and the resulting implications – Plateau, Peak and Canyon:

• Plateau – This scenario is characterized by asymmetry. Political, economic, and societal forces both bolster and hinder technological progress and cybersecurity. Some governments have inconsistent policies and standards with varied levels of stakeholder participation and international cooperation, while other governments form clusters of open trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Some countries are able to leverage technology to advance economic and socioeconomic development, while other countries are left behind technologically, unable to fulfill the potential of ICT. This fragmented and uneven approach to governance and the economy leads to a less than optimal global cybersecurity landscape.
• Peak – This scenario is characterized by clear, effective government policies and standards across economies, and strong collaboration between governments to support open trade and promote FDI. This is a scenario of innovation, in which ICT fulfills its potential to strengthen governance models, economies, and societies. The actions of governments, businesses, and societal organizations foster the widespread and rapid adoption of technology. Political, economic, and social support leads to accelerated economic and technology growth and improved global cybersecurity.
• Canyon – This scenario is characterized by obstructionist government policies and standards, protectionist stances, and isolation. These significantly restrict trade and FDI and undermine relationships across industrial sectors within countries as well as between countries. In this scenario, economic and technology growth is slower, with limited adoption of ICT and deep failures in cybersecurity.

These and other internet scenarios highlight the multitude of choices and possible paths that could enhance or impair its societal and commercial value. When we go beyond the near-term horizon a number of even more dramatic possibilities start to emerge such as being able to email physical objects, the integration of holographic technology into social interactions, books that feature “sensory fiction”, direct connection of our brains to the internet, and the networking of our thoughts and dreams. We are in a phase where the speed of advance is such that developments we think are a hundred years away could be delivered far sooner.

The scenarios and future possibilities raise fundamental questions about how customer preferences and product cycles might adjust in response, what our strategies should be, how we evolve business models, and how frequently we will need to update them. What is the most effective way of designing our organizations to respond where 20 years of technology—less than one generation—could drive a century’s worth of social change? The ramifications will be immense for consumer profiling, marketing, advertising, and customer relationships.

The quest to make the internet a central life support system The major players have all embarked on strategies to deepen the penetration of the internet into our everyday lives and into the fabric of commerce and government – thus strengthening our dependency upon it. Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Google, argues the ubiquitous Internet’s future will be “part of your presence all the time”. Given Google’s strategy of branching out into everything from life-extension biology to self-driving cars, AI, robotics, and augmented reality, it is clear to see why it would want the Internet to be part of us all the time. Interestingly, as the present incarnation of the Web is so woven into ordinary life, Vint Cerf, the “father of the internet” warns of dire consequences once today’s open technology yields to more proprietary versions of the internet. He fears a “dark age” if we don’t ensure that our collective online store of digital information (pictures, messages, experiences) is transferable to future iterations of the Internet. If this digital history is lost, the risk is that future generations may view our time on earth (1950-2050, perhaps?) as an empty void.

That the Internet will continue to expand and transform is a central tenet and assumption in the Masters of the Universe narrative. A major focus for these would-be cyber-overlords is making internet access universal. Though it is one of their key talking points, obstacles persist. These firms are undertaking or planning a range of initiatives to extend internet access across the planet through satellites, mobile devices and so called “walled garden” applications which would restrict the access to what the provider chose to offer. While the firms claim they are serving the needs of humanity, other observers suggest this is simply an attempt to lock an ever growing audience into a proprietary version of the Web over which the provider has total control and surveillance.

A Facebook study found that, in the developed world, 76 percent of the population is online, compared to just 29.8 percent in developing countries. Developed markets are reaching saturation and 2014 saw a declining rate of growth in the number of global internet users for the fourth consecutive year. Hence, reaching this unconnected 70 per cent is central to future strategy as it would provide access to a further three to five billion potential customers over the next two decades. Is the universality of the internet a fact of life or a narrative imposed on behalf of those who stand to gain from its expansion?

Bitcoin, blockchain, Ethereum and the battle to reclaim the Internet

The Internet, though “free,” is still effectively controlled by the companies who control the data. Meanwhile, it is clear that a backlash against the controlling power of the internet elite is taking shape. Several of the most exciting emerging and anticipated technology breakthroughs will challenge the currently centralized nature of the internet. The cybercurrency Bitcoin brought this in to sharp focus with its decentralized payment mechanism that enabled users to buy and sell goods services via the Bitcoin network, without the need for a central banking system. The most interesting and disruptive aspect of Bitcoin is the underlying use of blockchain technology. This provides a secure mechanism for encoding transactions and a continuously updated distributed public ledger that records them.

A more recent venture called Ethereum builds upon the blockchain concept with a goal of decentralizing the communications, contracts, and transactions that occur in both the physical world and cyberspace. It provides tools that enable users to program self-activating self-managing smart contracts. Some suggest that this could lead to a more secure, transparent, and democratic internet that could outstrip the current one in scale and usage.

Another wave of potential disruption could come from what Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince calls The Second Crypto War: “Companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, and others have acted as a centralized repository of user data that law enforcement could turn to during an investigation. As the second Crypto War heats up, these companies are engineering new ways to lock their users’ data away even from legal process.”

Next generation technologies driving DNA mutations Connectivity – A technology that could have a major impact on connectivity is The Outernet – the idea of taking connectivity to space via satellite and transmitting data in a fashion analogous to radio transmission rather than wifi. This is seen as a temporary fix for universal internet access until more permanent infrastructure can be implemented in developing countries and remote areas.

On a completely different scale, light fidelity, or Li-Fi, offers new avenues for highly localized bi-directional data transmission at theoretical speeds of up to 224 Gbps – which compares to theoretical speeds of eight to 1,300 Mbps for wifi transmission today. As light is blocked by solid objects, like walls, Li-Fi would be limited by physical barriers, providing a more individualized, localized and hence potentially more secure internet experience.

Products and Services – Advances in machine learning, speech and gesture recognition, and other forms of AI will enable micropersonalization– a personality-centric future technology, where “interfaces will be obsessed with meeting your individual needs.” Futurists John Smart and Ray Kurzweil – Google’s Director of Engineering – suggest another highly intimate development could be possible by 2020, whereby our AI “digital twins” or “Cybernetic Friends” might be able to mimic their owners, including sharing the same worldview and expressions, even “hold conversations and have faces”.

AI is becoming an increasingly important internet technology and will be central to concepts such as the semantic Web (see below), intelligent interfaces, and customer service avatars. It will lead to intelligent agents that do our bidding on the Web, and ever-smarter text, image, and video-based search. Proponents of the technological singularity such as Ray Kurzweil argue that by 2029 we could see AI having advanced to the point where it exceeds human intelligence – a turning point beyond which it then becomes hard to predict what might happen. On route to this point of departure, the expectation is that AI will increasingly enable us to draw on a collective intelligence in the cloud, where all human knowledge will gather.

For a number of the most promising developments to take root, it will be essential to raise society’s trust and comfort levels – with both products and providers – around using and transacting with technology. The shift is happening as more and more services become digital-access only and a born digital generation grows up assuming ever-greater penetration of technology. For example, a Pew internet study found the majority (65 percent) of technology experts think that mobile payments will be the norm within five years. The next iteration could see a range of biometric payment options from fingerprint recognition to “paying with a smile” via a facial scan.

Smart Objects – Over the next few years society will become increasingly accustomed to and potentially more accepting of an environment populated by “smart” things, mostly connected through the IoT. We will also see the gradual transformation of inanimate objects (20 billion or more, excluding PCs, tablets, or smartphones) with the ability to know and express information, as well as gather data from their environment—including data about us. In February 2015 Samsung generated considerable debate when it launched a TV with built-in voice recognition, where our conversations could be recorded and shared with third parties. Cisco’s projections suggest the Internet of Everything (IoE) has the potential to reach $19 trillion of value by 2022. As the social fabric is redefined by IoT and IoE, the implications – like DNA mutations—will be adaptive and evolutionary. Objects will play a much more active role in daily life.

Work – The DNA or work itself could evolve as a result of the push to connect essentially everything via online workflow software that manages every stage of activity – encompassing “companies, systems, technology, apps, and people.” Experts predict workflow software will help to “. . . solve the big data problem, the cloud security problem, and many of the roadblocks facing software technology today”. We are laying the foundations for the fully automated enterprise – companies that are effectively a giant distributed rules-based engine with little or no human intervention once the business rules have been defined.

Platforms such as Ethereum are catering for the emergence of these Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) and Decentralized Autonomous Corporations (DACs). This gives rise to the notion of Corporations as Technology and the Fully Automated Busines Entity. In this environment, stakeholder requirements will change.

Customer expectations will be different. So will the expectations and needs of those who are still employed or contracted in to perform specific tasks that the DAC cannot as yet automate. What will work become when software enables most of it to be done automatically, almost intuitively? The companies that arrive early at solutions to these major puzzles could thrive and / or face a major potential public backlash at the notion of an entirely digital corporation.

Knowledge Management – On the horizon is the notion of the Semantic Web – increasing the intelligence and intuition of the Web, by annotating its content with self-descriptive information to enable more precise searching based on the context as well as the terms of the user enquiry. Inventor of the World Wide Web Tim Berners-Lee created the concept, foreseeing “. . . a number of ways in which developers and authors, singly or in collaborations, can use self-descriptions and other techniques so that context-understanding programs can selectively find what users want.” A number of developments are underway in this domain and a range of platforms are beginning to incorporate basic semantic technologies, for example:

• Google’s Knowledge Graph – providing information on “entities” such as people and places and the relationship between them.
• Hummingbird – drawing on your geographical location, search history, social activity, and other cues to personalize the search.
• Schema.org – a collaborative, community activity with a mission to create, maintain, and promote schemas (cognitive frameworks to help present and interpret data) and a common vocabulary for the capture and use of structured data on the Internet, on Web pages, in email messages, and beyond.

An interesting aspect of the Semantic Web is that it will require new partnerships involving creative, humanistic, and emotionally intelligent participants to harness its full potential. Some of the most powerful applications are expected to come in domains such as travel and leisure, incorporating richer descriptions and multi-sensory information to enhance the presentation of content to would-be travelers. The sector is expected to embrace semantic search powered by AI and it could become standard in travel customer service by 2020.

Care Giving – The expectation that, technologically speaking, society evolves with each step forward is threatened by the sense that many products and services come at too high a social price. One of the truths casting a harsh light on the future of the internet is that as we become more highly connected, we also become more highly observed. Becoming overly managed by our devices is one concern: the notion of “Big Mother” telling us how many calories to eat, reminding us of important social engagements, and introducing us to possible love interests.

Our smart homes will be capable of conducting surveillance to the point of knowing how strong a batch of coffee should be brewed (based on how late you stayed out last night) or a bracelet that vibrates when the baby wakes in his crib. Now more than ever, we can see how technology can transform social roles and relationships, especially when it mimics the work of caring for others. When roles that were traditionally, inextricably based on human interaction are taken up by machines, there will be a blurring of gender, family and social roles like never before. Again, the DNA comparison seems appropriate—technological change is reshaping who we are.

Home and Family – The home is the prime staging area for many significant developments related to the future of the internet. Semantic, ethnographic and media research studies are becoming critical to developing the next generation of products and services for the home.

Some examples include:

• Like-a-Hug: a jacket that inflates every time someone “likes” us on Facebook.
• Facebook’s Coffee Table: a smart object that uses real-time speech analysis to pick up keywords from your conversation to pull up corresponding Facebook images.
• Google’s Latitude Doorbell: chimes a different tune for each family members when they are nearing home.

A key concern is that most of these smart objects are being developed independently so there is no industry standard for how they work, much less a clear pattern for how they will work together. Samsung has announced plans to invest $100 million in developing IoT solutions, with the goal of setting future systems standards. 189 However, the notion of dominating the IoT rests on several assumptions, the main one being that it’s what the public wants at all.

Risks – An all-knowing all-seeing internet informed by networks of smart things opens up a range of possible risks such as the hacking of wireless pacemakers. On a broader scale, concern is rising over the potential expansion of ransomware opportunities and the associated costs of dealing with “malware that seizes data until targets pay up within a certain time frame”. The appeal of rewriting societal DNA will extend beyond innovators and their investors, to the criminal element that can see new potential for illicit gain. So far, ransomware is reported to have hit at least one million victims – costing them $1.8 million. Even law enforcement has been impacted—it cost one American police department $500 to regain data seized from official computers.

Clearly these technologies also offer the opportunity to both expand the malicious side of the Dark Web, and – potentially – to control it. Previously the domain of the illicit, the Masters of the Universe are being usurped by government in arriving on the scene. A Pentagon-developed search engine called Memex is claimed to be able access 95% of the information that a Google search can’t, reaching “the deep, dark recesses of the World Wide Web”. Recently, the Global Commission on Internet Governance (GCIG) said it anticipates fragmentation in criminals using the Dark Web, making it even more challenging to investigate. Some of the strategies planned by GCIC include monitoring of customer data, semantic analysis to track future illegal activities and “marketplace profiling” to gather information about sellers, users, and goods. Though these measures are meant to catch criminals, it is important to consider how legitimate businesses might get wrapped into the extra surveillance needed to combat crime. Particularly as the IoT is implemented, it will be important to figure out how to keep our “things” (and our most personal information) out of the hands of bad guys, and possibly the good guys too.

Protection of the Common Good – Alongside its murkier inhabitants, the Dark Web also serves as the “unofficial” internet, placing a destabilizing pressure on Masters of the Universe – acting as source of ideas, innovation and developments that lie outside their control. Furthermore, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) attempts to track hidden cybercrime rings could yield wider positive outcomes: “Aside from going after human traffickers, terrorists, and other criminals, DARPA says Memex can become particularly useful to government, military, and commercial organizations in finding and organizing ‘mission critical’ information on the Internet. Emergency responders, for example, can quickly find information on the worst hit areas in the event of a natural disaster.”

There are several new perspectives that support the notion of the internet as a common good. Tim Berners-Lee argues: “Affordable access to the Internet should be recognized as a human right.”It could also be a tool to fight injustice, providing a guarantee of online equality and rights. If used fairly, in ways that enhance social justice, it might become the key technology that emancipates society from living at the mercy of imperfect political and economic systems. This is the line of thought being pursued vigorously by those involved in Ethereum and other similar decentralized developments. They argue that the transparency and security of the blockchain could provide new levels of openness and protection for citizens and lay bare the details of decisions and transactions that might otherwise be hidden from them.

Conclusion – whose net is it anyway?

As the analysis above suggests, in a constantly evolving environment with an accelerating pace of technological development and ever greater potential gains, there are inevitably far more questions than answer right now about the future of the internet. At the heart of the matter is the issue of ownership.

A fundamental question for business and policy leaders alike is whether the internet can be both a “right” and a for-profit product or service? Despite the central nature of the question, it is in some respects being overtaken by events, with billions of “things” expected to arrive online within the next five to ten years. Will the Masters of the Universe have sidelined the issue by making the Web so central to our lives that we are willing to trade privacy and access to our personal data in return for rides on their branded internet wonderworld? From where we stand today, the “almost certain probable future” is that, a decade from now, our things will be talking to each other and busier than us moving data around in cyberspace. A lot of that data will be about us.

In this Nextnet, populated by connected things and our intelligent agents, what role will there be for the discussion about rights, morals, net neutrality, and ownership? Will the proponents of net neutrality succeed in their mission to have all data treated equally, or could we see a privatized, segmented net of nets emerge where corporations and governments set the rules and we get what we are willing to pay for?

Will Ethereum and its like have populated cyberspace with a network of DAOs that operate largely unattended and whose transparency and openness challenges the authority of current and would-be Master of its Universe? On the other hand, would removing a human element from the Internet make it a much less appealing place and create the space for a completely new development to take place to fill the need for social interactions?

Might Dark Web 2.0 emerge as the place to escape the “things” and spend time in a human online ecosystem? A place to fly under the radar of companion objects and AI-enabled agents (and the companies that want to know what data they hold) might become a necessary and sought after refuge.

What’s clear is that the scale and functionality of the Web and the underlying Internet are likely to expand dramatically. Innovators will deliver internet solutions that tempt us, rework the DNA of every aspect of society, and challenge our assumptions about the boundaries between public and private, free and paid, open and controlled.

The born digital Masters of the Universe will continue to drive for winner-takes-all dominance in sector after sector – physical and digital alike. In response, the born physical business community will be challenged to rework its DNA and find ways of fighting back and transforming into entities capable of competing and winning when these worlds collide.

• What new possibilities will the future evolution of the internet create for your business?
• How is the likely development of the internet being factored into your overall business strategy?
• How might the emergence of novel internet features change the way we market, sell, charge for and deliver goods and services?

This article is excerpted from The Future of Business. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-3758364/ by geralt

By Rohit Talwar

How might technology innovation impact the future of the treasury function?

Corporate treasury is a classic example of core business functions that will be reinvented in the coming years. Perhaps the biggest challenges are those of raising the function’s technological literacy and evolving genuinely digital mindsets. As the digital disruption typhoon sweeps across the business landscape, surviving the storm requires senior treasurers to raise the understanding of themselves and their teams of what emerging technologies enable in terms of functionality and new ways of thinking and doing business.

Opportunities are arising through new FinTech solutions for treasury functions to bypass banks and other providers—but understanding and realizing the opportunities requires deep digital literacy. Technology advances enable radically different concepts underpinned by dramatically different ways of looking at treasury activity, hence digital culture needs to encompass both the emerging technology and the associated mindsets.

At its heart, a digital mindset means seeing everything as data rather than physical objects represented by data—and hence something that can be analyzed and manipulated in ever-more clever and complex ways. For example, automotive industry leaders are starting to see that the biggest value in cars lies in software and the data it generates about every aspect of the car and what the passengers do while travelling.

The car has become a monetizable data generation platform and now offers the potential for constantly updateable revenue streams rather than a single fixed purchase. With the rise of Tesla’s autonomous vehicles and similar digitally minded manufacturers such as Local Motors, who crowdsources their 3D printed car designs, a car is no longer just a means of transportation—it becomes a physical embodiment of digital products and services.

Successful digitally literate business leaders in treasury will need to embrace disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, cloud computing, hyperconnectivity, and process automation. These technologies enable the creation of tools that can help increase efficiency and effectiveness, and create more value for internal customers and others who treasury connects with.

As financial services firms and central banks start adopting blockchain and digital/crypto currencies, the pace of change in the marketplace will only accelerate. China is exploring the technology with the intent of transforming its entire finance sector while others are looking at blockchain as a platform for frictionless sale and distribution of equities, currencies, bonds, and other assets.

The secure and irrevocable nature of blockchain transactions coupled with the reduction in transaction fees makes it an attractive proposition for executing direct peer-to-peer transactions between counterparties without the need for intermediaries such as banks. Artificial intelligence also offers the potential for smarter analysis and automation of many routine tasks.

Positive digital treasury cultures will explore ways of enhancing the role of people in the organization through AI rather than simply automating the work. Finding deeper, meaningful ways to connect to employees and encourage their best work, and providing worthwhile experiences for both employees and internal customers—i.e. building relationships—will be the true hallmarks of the digitally enlightened organization.

• What does treasury leadership need to unlearn in order to enable the emergence of a digital culture?
• What opportunities are there on offer from banks and other vendors to conduct safe, low cost trials of next-generation treasury technology?
• What modeling is your organization doing of the financial impact of moving to blockchain and cryptocurrencies for key processes in treasury and finance?

This article is excerpted from The Future Reinvented – Reimagining Life, Society, and Business. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4109223/ by geralt

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, and Alexandra Whittington

How might smart technologies impact food and beverage industry jobs in the next 10 years?

The so called Fourth Industrial Revolution is bringing with it successive waves of ever-smarter technologies that could redefine our most basic notions of business, work, employment, wages, government, society, human purpose, and the daily lives of people on this planet. This article explores how such developments could impact the workplace—using the food industry as an example of how deep the applications could go and how wide-ranging the impacts might be.

We’re already used to seeing armies of shiny robots undertaking repetitive manufacturing tasks in the food industry—now they are spreading to a variety of roles previously considered the exclusive domain of humans. For example, smart robots and drones are in growing use on farms for a range of tasks from ploughing and planting, to inspection, pruning, and harvesting. El Dulze, a Spanish food processor, now uses robotics to pick up heads of lettuce from a conveyor belt, rejecting those that do not comply with company standards.

In Germany, BratwurstBot takes your order, cooks the sausage to your requirements, and serves it. Artificial intelligence (AI) is used in planning delivery routes and predicting what goods are likely to be in high demand and therefore need to be ordered. In the UK, Honest launched a totally unmanned, AI-powered coffee kiosk. We are also seeing robots and AI being used in recipe creation, food preparation, bar tending, and table service. New applications in the sector are literally being announced daily.

However, this is just the start; the next waves of development will see the combinatorial effect of AI, robotics, big data, and cloud services working together, creating the opportunity for machines to interact with humans through the provision of services rather than simply delivering us data, analysis, and decision support. Some recent examples of AI in food production include the Hands-Free Hectare project from Harper Adams University, which is farming a plot of land with zero human intervention whatsoever; and Arable, a start-up that hopes to revolutionize the food supply chain with AI-enabled predictive farming.

As the cost of manufacturing robots declines and technological capabilities expand, it’s ever more likely that robots will gradually be substituted for labor in a wide range of low-wage service occupations. Imagine a restaurant with humans, augmented humans, robots, holo- grams, and smart AI table top displays all working in the same space. As a human, do you trust your robot server, chef, and bartender? What happens when the robot is smarter than you, or knows what you want before you do through the use of predictive analytics? Will the AI chef interact directly with the AI-based intelligent agent on your phone to ascertain allergies and intolerances before preparing your meal? Could the bartender and your intelligent agent work together to surprise you with a new cocktail prepared specifically to your taste preferences?

As business leaders and managers, the advent of these new technologies working alongside or in place of humans creates as whole new set of requirements for how we supervise, mentor, motivate, and reward such a blended workforce. The issue of the rights and protections of robots also starts to emerge—many films depict humans trying to sabotage or harm their robot counterparts. Should we try to protect robots and give them similar workplace protections as those who they may be replacing? Furthermore, should we be concerned about the potential risks that could arise from the total automation of our food supply and food chain?

The much cited 2013 study on the Future of Employment by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School found that in the food and beverage industry food scientists were the least likely to lose out to computerization whereas fast food workers and coffee shops were among the most likely. It is entirely possible that, in the next 20 years, 80% or more of current jobs in the food and beverage industry could become obsolete, fully or partially auto- mated, or redesigned to eliminate the human component. For those who believe that employment is the preferred future for humanity, the challenge is to ensure that we are doing enough today by encouraging the industries of tomorrow, supporting entrepreneurship and enabling start-ups, preparing the workforce of tomorrow, and re-motivating and reskilling those whose jobs are displaced by automation. Clearly there will still be a demand for humans in a range of roles that require creativity, innovation, problem-solving, collaboration, and customer engagement. So, we might accept a robo-chef at a fast food outlet where consistency and speed are key; however, when going for more upmarket dining options where talent, inspiration, creativity, and service are the attraction, we think many people would likely prefer a human chef and waiting staff.

Forward-looking industry leaders are already investing the time to understand what’s coming over the horizon, experimenting with the technologies, and preparing their staff for change. This includes equipping managers with the skills to help and motivate employees to learn new roles quickly, take up new opportunities, and even start their own business. Helping individuals take control of their own destiny is an increasingly common trait of the enlightened organization.

• How will the food and beverage industry reinvent itself for the Fourth Revolution?
• How might AI change our food routines and indirectly the supply chain and logistics of the industry?
• How might AI be used to help address employee learning needs?

This article is excerpted from Beyond Genuine Stupidity – Ensuring AI Serves Humanity. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4204219/ by geralt

By Rohit Talwar and Alexandra Whittington

How can we raise technological literacy levels to deal with the exponential advances of the Fourth Industrial Revolution?

The exponentially accelerating pace of development across a range of fields of science and technology is driving home the importance of raising technological literacy across society and at all levels of education and experience. So, what’s driving the sense of urgency here? While the internet is the familiar overarching narrative when we talk about the digital future, there is much more happening in the field of information and communications technology (ICT).

The innovations that we already know about, such as cloud computing, social media, and big data, are not slowing down; quite the opposite actually, and represent just the start of the story. They are being joined on the technological landscape by a number of other exponentially improving technologies and the concepts they enable. Hence, the expected future is that, pretty soon, artificial intelligence (AI), drones, autonomous vehicles, and smart cities will be commonplace.

Wearable technologies will become implantable, nano-scale, and internal. Meanwhile mankind may surpass both normal life spans and the various natural genetic limitations such as susceptibility to disease. As these innovations evolve, futurists are taking up the often unpopular task of asking whether society wants or needs these changes, how to make decisions about them, and how to prepare everyone for their impact.

Today’s most cutting-edge innovations in ICT are either already progressing exponentially or prone to do so some time soon. The internet, for example, is morphing into the Internet of things (IoT). This is just one manifestation of the approaching wave of exponential scientific and technological change coming in the next few years. To help understand exponential progress, let’s start by thinking about making the normal, linear ascent up a staircase. Now imagine the alternative of leaping exponentially from step 1 to step 2 to step 4 to step 8 to step 16 and upwards—eventually skipping entire floors. The sheer scale of the possible changes means that a solid framework for understanding the potential impacts of these breakthroughs is critical if we are to elevate our culture to a higher level of technological literacy.

Although the concept of “technological literacy” can be ambiguous, and in the face of exponential change, it almost feels inadequate. It is an idea that can be expressed using several different terms and encompasses many different aspects of society’s relationship with technology. A report published in 2000 by the OECD called Basic Skills in Adult Education and Bridging the Digital Divide used the term technological literacy to mean, “the ability to utilise ICT effectively.”

The Colorado Department of Education defines technology literacy as, “the ability to responsibly use appropriate technology to: communicate; solve problems; access, manage, integrate, evaluate, design, and create information to improve learning in all subject areas and acquire lifelong knowledge and skills in the 21st century.”

The highly respected International Society for Technology in Education (ISTE) describes digital literacy as a key component of digital citizenship. In the ISTE framework, digital literacy falls under the education category—addressing, “how to learn in a digital society.” Each definition seems to stress the same idea that the skills alone are not enough to constitute effective use of technology; some kind of evaluation or reflection on the appropriate and preferable outcomes of its use is required.

Having rather recently upgraded from chalkboards and books to laptops and tablets, instructional settings are on the front lines of the impact of exponential technological shifts in society. Smartboards, virtual classrooms, email, and online conferencing are just some of the indispensable technologies used every day.

Closer to the cutting-edge, there are now education and training programs that utilize augmented (AR) and virtual reality (VR) in a variety of contexts from teaching 11-year-olds about genetics through to surgical training for medical students. Other such examples include Georgia Tech University running a course with a covert AI teaching assistant, and Teachur, the education start-up trying to put higher education on the blockchain.

Technology in instructional settings is sometimes taken for granted, or viewed instantly as an advantage, but their societal-level impacts are often inadequately evaluated. This is a key area for reflection as we accelerate into our technological future: The act of using ICT subtly implies our consent for its resultant impacts, the scale of which could rise as these shifts accelerate exponentially.

Technological literacy, or some version of it, is rapidly replacing “literacy” as the base skill in society; today, a person who doesn’t use the internet is like someone in the Western world once century ago being unable to read. Take, for example, the smart phone. Today the non-smart phone user is increasingly disadvantaged, marginalized, and possibly viewed suspiciously as antisocial, deviant, or some other type of nonconformist.

Smart phones are valuable for web searching, accessing online applications, texting, social media, email, and (less and less) for phone calls. Few would argue that they do not serve a critical function in day-to-day life. However, they also contain GPS location devices and store mountains of private data about the user, including photos, passwords, and credit card information.

Clearly, no one would argue that smartphones are truly secure or that the data on one’s phone is safe from spying eyes. Yet, how is it that the smart phone has come to possess so much of our identity and life, and signify our place as a functional member of society, i.e. technologically literate in the sense that this is appropriate use of the technology? Now, take for example, a modern person who uses a landline exclusively: Compared to the person who trusts smart phones, which individual is displaying the correct level of technological literacy and secure technology usage?

Perhaps because it is the most familiar, the importance of the internet can obscure other transformative technologies. Scan the pages of this book and it becomes clear that it is not just the digital realm that is changing what it means to be human. Several other parallel technological innovations taking shape right now are contributing to the transformation. Indeed, these reach all the way to life span extension and human enhancement via implantable or wearable devices. So, while ICT is the most obvious and constant reminder of the cascade of technological shifts taking place, it is just one field out of many different science-led domains that are heading down the exponential path.

A higher level of technological literacy would help society take a realistic view of disruptive technologies and allow a more critical appraisal of the claims made by techno-optimists and the likely benefits to society as a whole. Some claim that the risks are overblown and that we should be seeking to accelerate, not dampen, the pace of technological progress. Others argue that these seductive technologies are unfolding in an uncontrolled and uncontrollable manner that could threaten human existence. As with any form of progress, the argument center on a core question: “Just because we can, does it mean we should?”

• How can we govern technological advancements to ensure they bring social progress and opportunities for all?
• How could we bridge the technological gap for vulnerable populations like elders and those who live in remote areas?
• How can we help society as a whole to understand the critical differences between linear and exponential technological and social changes?

This article is excerpted from The Future Reinvented – Reimagining Life, Society, and Business. You can order the book here.

A version of this article was originally published in Multimedia Information and Technology.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4388764/ by geralt

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, April Koury, Alexandra Whittington, and Maria Romero

How might future cities best reflect our prevailing social and economic priorities and take advantage of technological possibilities?

The city of the future is a symbol of progress. The sci-fi vision of the future city with sleek skyscrapers and flying cars, however, has given way to a more plausible, human, practical, and green vision of tomorrow’s smart city. Whilst smart city visions differ, at their heart is the notion that, in the coming decades, the planet’s most heavily concentrated populations will occupy city environments where  a digital blanket of sensors, devices, and cloud-connected data is weaved together to build and enhance the city living experience for all. In this context, smart architecture must encompass all the key elements of what enable city ecosystems to function effectively. This means everything from the design of infrastructure, workspaces, leisure, retail, and domestic homes to traffic control, environmental protection, and the management of energy, sanitation, healthcare, security, and a building’s eco-footprint.

The world’s premier cities and architects are competing to design and build highly interconnected smart environments where people, government, and business operate in symbiosis with spectacular, exponentially improving array of technologies from artificial intelligence (AI) to renewable energy and the Internet of things (IoT). The architectural promise of future smart cities is to harmonize the benefits of these disruptive technologies for society and provide a high quality of life “by design.” Some have already implemented smart city architecture and, as the concepts, experiences, and success stories spread, the pursuit of “smart” will become a key driver in the evolving future of cities as communities and economic centers. Here we explore some of the critical trends, visions, ideas, and disruptions shaping the rise of smart cities and smart architecture.

Smart Cities – Purpose, Engagement, and Vision

The evidence to date from smart city and smart architecture initiatives around the world is that the best results come when we have  a clear sense of what the end goal is. However, in a fast changing world, it can be hard to develop a clear future vision and strategy when stakeholder goals are not aligned, where every sector is being disrupted, and all our planning assumptions are being challenged. A city vision might take 5-15 years to roll out—but for many businesses and individuals it is almost impossible to think about their needs 24 months from now. However, the challenge must be overcome.

City governments have to work together with architects to create inclusive processes that inform citizens about the forces shaping the future and the possibilities on the horizon. The next step is to engage the population in dialogue concerning the kind of future city we want to create. We have to explore what a livable city means to its people and be clear on how we will design and build the structures to support that vision. Alongside this, we need to articulate a clear vision and direction around education, environment, public services, access to justice, city administration, and civic engagement. These pillars then provide the guiding requirements which will, in turn, influence the design of the physical, digital, and human elements of the infrastructure and building architectures that enable a smart city.

Big Data: Smart Architecture to Power a City

Smart cities are designed to inform decisions by capturing massive amounts of data about the population and its patterns, such as water use and traffic flows. This information gathering results in big data, which is essentially gathered via different forms of surveillance. The ease and affordability of cameras, sensors, AI, and advanced analytics in the future will mean this data gathering function may become completely automated. Indeed, the data will be collated from a constantly evolving and expanding IoT, encompassing traffic lights and cameras, pollution sensors, building control systems, and personal devices—all literally feeding giant data stores held in the cloud. The ability to crunch all this data is becoming easier due to rampant growth in the use of predictive algorithms and AI application software that run on networks of high performance computing and storage devices.

Singapore is a leading example of a smart city, and is constantly evolving its “city brain,” a backbone of technologies used to help control pollution, monitor traffic, allocate parking, communicate with citizens, and even issue traffic fines. Singapore’s “brain” is also attempting to modify human behavior. For example, one system rewards drivers for using recommended mapped routes, and punishes those who do not. Now imagine expanding this use of big data to human foot traffic around and within the buildings of a city. For some time now, companies like Pavegen and Veranu have been developing flooring that harvests the energy of walking and converts it into electricity. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, smart architects may be able to design entire buildings powered solely by their inhabitants’ movements.

Internet of Things: Redesigning Spaces

Smart cities rely on advanced technology to make sense of massive arrays of data. Indeed, the amount of information on the internet is expected to grow exponentially as a result of the Internet of things. Essentially IoT means that everything (“things”)—and potentially everyone—will form a network of beacons and collection devices, gathering data on ambient and behavioral patterns from our surroundings, feeding this information to the city brain in the cloud. Hence, after data, the IoT is the second driving force behind the rise of smart infrastructure: For everything from air conditioning to parking meters to function effectively and seamlessly in a smart city, microphones, sensors, voice recognition, and all sorts of other high- tech gadgetry must be hooked up to the IoT.

Architects and planners are already exploring the possibilities— indeed, technology players like IBM, Hitachi, and Cisco are all betting big on IoT-enabled smart buildings. Exhaustive monitoring of internal building conditions offers the potential to provide future occupants with seamlessly and continuously optimized living conditions while reducing energy and space wastage. Today’s smart sensors can recognize occupancy patterns and movement to switch on the air conditioning or lights for a person before they even enter a room, and shut off these systems as they exit. The more we know about the specific individuals, the more we can tailor those setting to their personal preferences.

In the near future, buildings will potentially be built on a smart IoT grid that monitors, controls, and automates smart lighting and intuitive heating, ventilation, and air conditioning to create the perfect environment while drastically decreasing energy wastage. Further- more, IoT devices combined with big data analysis may help architects redesign and readapt buildings to minimize energy wastage, and maximize space usage, both shrinking resources in our ever-growing cities. Single use facilities like meeting rooms—traditionally unused for periods of time—may be redesigned as multipurpose spaces that support a whole host of day-to-day business activities based on analyses of data gathered via the IoT. A smart building may even take on the management of meeting rooms to sell vacant space to third party users on a per minute basis: For example, a row of meeting rooms by day could become a nightly pop-up market.

Sustainability: Smart Building Materials

Finally, from an architectural design perspective, all this data and awareness should enable decisions that make the best possible use of material resources with an emphasis on sustainability. This is a very logical outcome and benefit of the merging of big data, AI, and the IoT feeding into the rise of smart architecture.

Given that the UK has recently broken energy use records with solar meeting almost a quarter of energy demands, there is significant potential for the sun to become a mainstream power source in current and future building designs. There is also a new scientific forecasting tool to predict solar weather, which will make the rollout of solar on buildings (and in homes) a more feasible option. Eventually, with a growing array of such distributed power solutions, a centralized energy distribution grid for homes and businesses may not be necessary.

Additionally, the exponential growth in, and reduced cost of, solar technology may lead to entire cities designed to generate their own electricity. Rather than glass windows, skyscrapers could be covered in transparent solar panels that, through IoT monitoring, turn slightly opaque as the sun moves over them throughout the day. This would allow the darker panels to not only gather more energy, but also shade the building’s inhabitants and decrease cooling costs. Researchers at RMIT University in Australia are currently working on a solar paint that absorbs moisture from the air and turns it into hydrogen fuel, one of the cleanest sources of energy available. Soon, architects may begin designing buildings based around maximizing the benefits of these next generation “smart” materials.

Cities Get Smart

The smart city movement has the potential to transform the organization of people, materials, and physical objects in a way that transcends urban development as we know it. The shift to smart architecture is not simply fashionable or aspirational; in many ways, it appears to be a critical enabler of the future sustainability of cities. It can be argued that the future of human life on the planet rests on a smooth transition to cities that are more efficient, less wasteful, and more conscious of the impacts of the individual upon the greater good.

It is now possible to create and deliver a city vision with citizens at its heart, and that is enabled by forward thinking infrastructure coupled with judicious use of enabling technologies. A well thought through vision, enabled by robust and well-executed smart architecture, could provide a foundation stone for the next stage of our development, where science and technology are genuinely harnessed in service of creating a very human future.

• Which social values would help ensure a very human vision of tomorrow’s smart city?
• How can we encourage people, businesses, and governments to create human-centered cities?
• What are the critical infrastructure elements required to enable a smart city?

This article is excerpted from Beyond Genuine Stupidity – Ensuring AI Serves Humanity. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-1052706/ by geralt

By Steve Wells, Rohit Talwar, Alexandra Whittington, April Koury, and Helena Calle

What kinds of jobs might those currently in school or higher education be doing when they enter the world of work?

The Shape of Jobs to Come

Back in January 2010 we wrote a report for UK government on The Shape of Jobs to Come. The study highlighted new jobs that might emerge in the global economy by 2030 as a result of exponential developments and breakthroughs in science and technology. Many of those are now real jobs and the rest are still likely to materialize. As an update on those ideas, our recent books The Future of Business, Beyond Genuine Stupidity—Ensuring AI Serves Humanity, and The Future Reinvented—Reimagining Life, Society, and Business discuss a whole range of new industries and professions that might emerge as a result of these exponential advances. Presented below are a selection of 20 new jobs that we think could rise to the fore in the coming decade.

New Jobs and New Business Sectors

The exponential pace of advancement in science and technology is going to enable dramatic changes in society. Advances in fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, human enhancement, and hyperconnectivity will help transform industries, enable the birth of new sectors, and lead to a whole new set of professions and jobs. These new professions could draw on multiple underlying disciplines. Here are some examples:

Lifestyle Services

1. Life Manager for the Techno-Bewildered—Those who struggle with technology and get left behind in the new world order might find themselves placed under the mentorship of new-age social workers. These Life Managers would supervise our every decision, guide us on how to navigate the day-to-day of a tech-centric world, and help ensure we use our finances or guaranteed basic incomes in a sustainable manner.

2. Robo-Nanny—Replacing the human nanny or au pair, future robotic caregivers could become a constant companion to our children at every stage of their development. Every facet of a Robo-Nanny’s character could be selected and tweaked by parents—emotional intelligence, values, ethics, levels of optimism, and even how the bot responds to difficult situations such as the passing of a grandparent. The bot could also be programmed to introduce new learning topics, languages, and life skills as required.

3. Sexual Compatibility Consultant—The risk of choosing an inappropriate partner and then having the “wrong” child could see the rise of compatibility specialists. These experts would use AI algorithms to assess everything from IQ and EQ to genetic makeup and family medical history to try and ensure we find the right mating partner.

4. Longevity Relationship Counselors—With humans expected to live 120 years plus and technology continuing to blur the line between robot and human, new types of marriage and relationship counselors may emerge. These lifelong counselors will help coach and guide individuals and their many partners across all stages and types of relationships, from traditional monogamy to polyamory and even human-robot or human-VR intermingling.

5. End of Life Planner / Death Strategist—As lifespans are extended for those who can afford it, deciding when to die becomes a difficult decision. Our choices will need to factor in emotional, healthcare, familial, economic, and tax planning criteria when making the decisions. This will give rise to a new death management profession—part GP, part financial advisor, part family therapist, and part grief counselor.

6. Urban Foraging Educators—In the coming decade and beyond, food scarcity may force more of the world’s people to forage for healthy food. In cities, where most of the population will be concentrated, urban foraging education may become a matter of survival. There may be a future demand for experts to train the public in identifying poisonous plants, edible weeds, and wild fruits or vegetables so that the population may survive future food shortages. Schools, governments, and private educational providers may seek to hire experts in urban foraging. Future foraging professionals could become as beloved (and marketable) as the celebrity chefs of today.

Enhancement Specialists

7. Memory Adaptation Specialists—A memory specialist may help us modify our memories and reduce mental health issues. People would be able to erase traumatic memories and replace them with positive ones. The process might be conducted by a specialist with training in psychotherapy and neuroscience. Modifying our memories could have a major impact on our personality. The memory specialist would help you choose the traumatic events you need to erase. The replacement procedure would be done after a series of introspective consultations. A wide catalog of pleasant memories would be available for your selection. People would choose what they want to remember.

8. Human Enhancement Technician—As a society, we are starting to augment the human body with chemical, genetic, electronic, and physical enhancements. Body shops will appear on the high street where appropriately trained technicians will be able to perform these upgrades—administering nootropic drugs, genetic modifications, 3D printed limbs, and electronic brain stimulation.

9. Cryogenics Concierge—As more people opt for cryogenic preservation at—or close to—the end of their life, they will need specialist advice. The cryo concierge will provide guidance on different types of cryo procedures, costs, financial planning, the family’s rights and responsibilities, what happens when you are regenerated, insurance, and how to manage the death.

New Societal Roles

10. Independent Fact Checker—This role already exists to some extent but becomes ever-more essential as concerns grow over the proliferation of fake news, companies exaggerating their marketing claims, and politicians arguing about the veracity of each other’s statements. These arbiters of truth will use a swathe of AI systems to check the truth and origin of every claim and fact. Clients will pay them for these services and for a regularly updated assessment of how truthful and accurate their own statements are. Public honesty tables provided by the fact checkers will influence the reputations and fortunes of businesses, politicians, and political parties.

11. Crypto Detective—The spread of crypto currencies and initial coin offerings has led to high levels of fraud and concerns over the scale of crypto-based shadow economy transactions. Specialist detectives backed up by AI will be required to unravel crime in the cryptosphere.

12. Robot Whisperers—Artificially intelligent robots may comprise a significant part of the future workforce in retail, food service, and hospitality. Companies deploying such robots may require a staff of professional human Robot Whisperers to stand guard whenever the bots interact with the public. This job would involve behind-the-scenes monitoring of robotic chefs and customer service robots to make sure they don’t run over a person’s foot or knock over a gas grill or cause other such hazards. The Whisperer would also monitor for undesirable behavioral changes as the robots learn from and adapt to their environment. Although robotic employees could be highly efficient and autonomous, it is possible that unexpected stimuli in the environment could result in accidents or injuries. Robot Whisperers would be a profession geared toward instilling public trust in robot workers.

13. Inter-AI Conflict Resolution Specialist—AIs will increasingly need to collaborate. Our personal intelligent assistant may need to interact with the AIs of our bank, our employers, and all the vendors who serve us. Not all AIs will be born equal or have common goals, so disputes could arise. Human arbitrators may need to intervene to get the best outcome for humanity in these disputes.

14. Robo-Cop Coordinator—With the increasing capability of AI and robotics, policing could be undertaken by automated robotic systems. These might range from humanoid robots capable of interacting directly with the public, through to autonomous road vehicles and drones for surveillance. Human oversight would enable resources to be deployed based on the recommendations made by automated systems given the situation observed. The coordinators would be able to supervise a significant number of policing assets, all of which would be capable of operating 24/7.

15. Off-World Governors—Dreams of inhabiting other planets and subsea colonies could be realized in the next 10-20 years. These new nations will require their own governance systems, economic and monetary frameworks, behavioral norms, decision-making models, laws, ethical standards, and judicial systems. These could vary dramatically from those witnessed on Earth. Hence, they will likely require a very different breed of visionary leaders to envision, run, and continuously evolve these new communities.

16. Personal Festival Designer—For the super wealthy, the next must-have experience could be the creation of your own festival—as birthday parties are so 2018. Your designer would craft the perfect combination of entertainment, glamping accommodation, gourmet food, tech support services, and on-demand transport using drones and autonomous vehicles.

New Industries—New Professions

17. Autonomous Vehicle Ethicist—We will need to establish the guiding principles for decisions made by autonomous vehicles. For example, who or what should the car hit if an accident is inevitable? Depending on where you are in the world the decision will be governed by different ethical and religious considerations, societal norms, and even economic factors.

18. Synthetic Sommelier—The rise in the use of synthetic food products could drive the emergence of experts on all aspects of edible synthetics, lab grown meat, and 3D printed foodstuffs. These professionals would be excellent at developing the perfect synth meal for any occasion. They can tell you all the differences in smell, taste, and texture between the synth food and its real, authentic counterpart.

19. Chief Augmentation Officer (CAO)—Within a decade, an increasing number of staff members could be seeking bodily augmentations that render them close to superhuman cyborgs. These humans 2.0 may need to have different management, working conditions, and workplace rights—all designed and overseen by the CAO.

20. Space Junk Removal Supervisor—Near Earth orbit is increasingly congested by the remnants of old space missions, obsolete satellites, and the results of accidental collisions and losses. At the same time, the space sector is expected to explode—encompassing everything from asteroid mining and space tourism to the establishment of off-world colonies. In response, dependent upon the type of junk being targeted, different fleets of specialized space craft would be controlled, deployed, and coordinated by Space Junk Removal Supervisors based at contractors’ ground stations. The experience in low Earth orbit will drive new policies, agreements, and procedures to prevent a similar issue developing around the Moon and Mars.

Are We Ready for Tomorrow’s Sectors and Jobs?

When viewed collectively, these jobs may feel too big a stretch for the imagination. However, in every case, we can see relevant developments happening in society and in the underlying fields of science and technology. These suggest that most if not all of these jobs will become a reality in the coming decades. Are our schooling and higher education systems prepared?

• What are the implications for societal systems and structures that these new potential jobs present?
• What are the issues for the existing workforce in a world characterized by radical changes to the workplace?
• What are the foundation skills required for a world of new jobs and how should they be taught and learned?

This article is excerpted from A Very Human Future – Enriching Humanity in a Digitized World. You can order the book here.

Image: https://pixabay.com/images/id-4372150/ by geralt